If not for a torn ACL and MCL late in his first full season with the Minnesota Vikings, T.J. Hockenson might have finished as the TE1 in full PPR fantasy scoring in 2023. Each year from 2020-2023, crossing back to his time with the Detroit Lions, he was a top-six fantasy tight end by points per game (full PPR).
Once he returned to action last season, Hockenson was clearly not the same player and his production showed it (41 receptions for 455 yards and zero touchdowns in 10 game). However, he did catch a touchdown in the playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams to end on a higher note.
Data from Pro Football Focus and Next Gen Stats shows Hockenson was slower and less elusive last season than he had been. It's not like he's ever been among the elite tight ends in the league from a speed and athleticism standpoint, and being further removed from his injury can only be a good thing.
Some reporters and analysts (fantasy and otherwise) see a lot of potential for Hockenson this season with J.J. McCarthy taking over under center for the Vikings. For his part, Hockenson is all-in on his new quarterback and his fantasy production did not wane when Kirk Cousins missed time in 2023.
Fantasy analyst suggests serious caution with Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson
On a recent list of fantasy league winners, sleepers and busts for 2025 at each position (minus kickers and defense), Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report had Hockenson as his bust pick at tight end. An ADP of TE5 (PPR and 0.5-point PPR right now) suggests fantasy managers are buying into a rebound this year, but Ryan Weisse of Football Guys is not at all optimistic that rebound is coming.
"He (Hockenson) posted the lowest catch rate of his career, failed to score a single touchdown, and averaged his fewest fantasy points per game since his rookie year."
"Now he enters 2025, another year removed from injury, but also with a new quarterback, rookie J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to take an NFL snap. Hockenson's current ADP appears to be driven more by name value and his peak production in 2022 and 2023 than by any genuine optimism about his role in this evolving offense. Even if he's healthier this year, the uncertainty surrounding McCarthy's development and the overall offensive efficiency should give drafters pause."
"Minnesota has plenty of mouths to feed, and without reliable red zone work or a proven connection with the quarterback, it's tough to project a bounce-back."
"In a deep tight end pool, Hockenson is being drafted near his ceiling. Given the risk, he's more likely to finish outside the Top 10 than return to elite status."
This side of Justin Jefferson, every Vikings' pass catcher who is or could be at all fantasy viable has McCarthy-related risk attached to them. It's also true that Hockenson is the second-most prominent fantasy option in the Vikings' passing game, if not the offense as a whole, and whiffing on a top tight end in a draft can make things tough for a fantasy manager.
Hockenson's TE5 ADP translates to an overall ADP of 80-90 depending on scoring format (seventh or eighth-round in a 12-team league). So the way to cover for any downside risk (overblown as it might be) is simple--draft a second tight end a round or two afterward.
