The Lightning's current 9-0-1 run has put them back in the race for the Atlantic and distanced themselves from challengers within the East.
In this space, I’ve often referenced ‘playoff pace.’ A team averaging 12 points in eight 10-game segments will reach 96 points after 80 games. Of course, the two final games of the regular season allow clubs to add to that total.
Since the NHL went to its current divisional/conference alignment in the 2013-14 season, there has been only one instance of a team reaching 96 points and missing the playoffs. (I’m excluding the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season and the 56-game 2021 campaign.)
The Lightning endured a rough January, posting a 7-8-1 record. As Jon Cooper mentioned recently, his team actually played well for much of that stretch — particularly defensively — but were snakebitten offensively. The January record adversely affected two of their 10-game segments. They played their 30th game of the season on December 19, beating St. Louis to reach 38 points. This gave them two ‘bonus’ points heading into Games 31-40. They only managed to post nine points in that segment, however, and were at 47 points, a point behind playoff pace. A 5-5-0 record in Games 41-50 put them two additional points behind playoff pace.
As we know, the Lightning haven’t lost in regulation during their current 10-game segment, which will wrap up tomorrow in Sunrise against the Panthers. They’ve already picked up 17 points, erasing the three-point ‘deficit’ and adding two bonus points.
The Lightning’s current run has propelled them to within striking distance of both Toronto and Florida atop the division. Just as importantly, it’s put some distance between themselves and the teams behind them in both the division and conference. Entering play on Sunday, the Lightning are eight points ahead of Detroit, the next closest Atlantic team. They’re 10 points up on Ottawa, currently the ninth-place club. Overall, the Lightning have the fourth-most points in the East, more than both Carolina and New Jersey, who occupy the second and third spots in the Metropolitan.
If 10 or more Eastern teams remain in the hunt and they ‘share’ points down the stretch, the last qualifying postseason spot likely won’t require 96 points. It usually doesn’t, even when the race isn’t this tight. For the Lightning, however, the goal will be to keep ‘munching points,’ as Cooper likes to say. They’ve certainly munched them since the end of January.
