On Jan. 13, the Tampa Bay Lightning placed their 2020 second-round pick, Gage Goncalves, on waivers. Having spent the past three seasons with the Syracuse Crunch of the American Hockey League (AHL), Goncalves proved roughly three weeks into the 2024-25 season that he was well past top-line minutes in the minors.
With six assists in his first five AHL games this season, Goncalves was recalled from Syracuse on Nov. 9 for an extended opportunity with the Lightning. However, the 24-year-old underperformed significantly in his first major stint of NHL action. Later, on Jan. 27, Goncalves was recalled again for another opportunity with Tampa Bay, and he’s made the most of his minutes as a very serviceable third-line forward heading into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Goncalves’ Miserable Start to the Season
In his first 26-game stint of NHL action (excluding two games in 2023-24), Goncalves averaged 11:11 minutes a night and recorded just one goal and two points. Head coach Jon Cooper couldn’t rely on him defensively, either, as he started just 8.21% of his five-on-five shifts in the defensive zone. This percentage ranked 12th out of the 13 Lightning forwards with at least 200 minutes of ice time from opening night to Jan. 27.
While Goncalves was given some opportunities in the offensive zone with a 13.85% offensive zone start percentage (OZS%), he didn’t earn the proper ice time to execute. Just over 11 minutes isn’t enough for Goncalves’ skill level. The Lightning also couldn’t score with Goncalves on the ice, as his 1.84 goals for per 60 (GF/60) at five-on-five ranked 10th on the Lightning’s forward core.
Even against weaker competition, Goncalves’ five-on-five play-driving metrics were not up to par with the rest of the Lightning’s lineup. He controlled just 46.84% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%), which ranked only 11th amongst Tampa Bay’s forwards as per Evolving Hockey. With Goncalves struggling to provide stability in an offensive depth role, the Lightning placed the 24-year-old winger on waivers before he earned another chance in late January.
Goncalves’ Mini-Breakout
Since being recalled on Jan. 27, Goncalves has played in all 16 Lightning contests. He’s registered two goals and eight points in 16 games, good enough for a half-point-per-game pace. Moreover, Goncalves has recorded more points since late January than players like Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul in less ice time. Speaking of ice time, Goncalves averages 13:08 minutes a night in his second stint with the Bolts, earning an extra two minutes each game on average.
Goncalves continues to transition into an effective third-line skilled forward and now has the play-driving to back up his talent. In his second stint, Goncalves controls 50.81% of the on-ice Corsi share (CF%) at five-on-five, good enough for fourth amongst Tampa Bay forwards. The offense continues to improve, as well, with a significant increase up to 2.96 GF/60 at five-on-five.
With a higher percentage of starts in the offensive and defensive zone, Cooper isn’t just trusting Goncalves on the fly anymore. Instead, Cooper sees Goncalves playing confidently and wants to give him every opportunity to succeed through upgraded linemates, more offensive zone face-offs, and increased ice time.
What’s Changed for Goncalves?
Two main factors continue to contribute to Goncalves’ elevated play. First, he’s placed more pucks on the net and trusts his shot. Before he was waived, Goncalves ranked dead last on the Lightning forward core with 3.34 shots per 60. Now, he’s nearly doubled his volume towards the net with 6.28 shots per 60. In other words, through his shooting, Goncalves has made himself a more valuable play-driving asset for the third line.
He’s also adapted to play a much more physical game. Not only is he throwing hits slightly more often, but he’s nearly doubled the rate at which he receives hits from opposing players. This level of compete will come in handy come playoff time, where the physicality and intensity of the game ramp up. Goncalves has seen an increase from 4.32 to 5.71 hits per 60 between his two stints with the team. Plus, he’s absorbed the most hits on a rate basis in Tampa Bay’s forward core since he was recalled, receiving 11.13 hits per 60 as opposed to 6.29 back in the fall. He’s no longer afraid of contact and is getting rewarded for his valiant effort along the boards.
With Goncalves playing a much more confident and physical game, the young winger looks like a solid building block for the future moving forward. After he appeared to have peaked as a top-line AHL scorer, Goncalves has brought an entirely new level of play to the Lightning in his last 16 games and has secured a roster spot for the playoffs and opening night in 2025-26.
