Gavin Lux hasn’t had it easy in his big league career since being a prized prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ system.
After a 61 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR season in a 19-game stint in the COVID shortened 2020 season followed by 102 game season in 2021 where he posted a 90 wRC+ and a 1.0 fWAR, according to FanGraphs, Lux didn’t exactly hit the ground running.
But then 2022 came and in 129 games that year Lux would go on to hit .276 with a 2.7 fWAR and 113 wRC+. He was starting to prove he was finally more than just a replacement-level player.
Then came spring training 2023 and killed all the momentum Lux built the year prior. He suffered a right knee injury and found his season over before it even began.
His first glimpse back in the major leagues post-injury didn’t look great with the question of whether or not he had a future with the high-flying Dodgers looming over his head.
But Lux has turned it on in the second half of the regular season and finds himself as one of the Dodgers top hitters at the moment.
So let’s dive into Lux’s 2024 season and what it could mean to the Dodgers in the final stretch, and more importantly October.
All stats within this article are from prior to games on Sept. 16
It’s Been a Tale of Two Halves for Lux in 2024
At first glance Lux’s 2024 campaign looks very average. He’s currently a 1.5 fWAR and 96 wRC+ player through 128 games and 447 plate appearances. He’s hitting .248 with a .309 OBP and a .385 SLG with 10 HR and 47 RBI.
But this has been a culmination of two very different halves from a production standpoint.
Pre All-Star Break
As I touched on already, Lux was disappointing to say the least in the opening months of the 2024 season.
After a lackluster four game stretch in March where he slashed .200/.200/.200 followed by and awful first full month of the new season in April, where he sported a monthly slash line of .175/.254/.211, Lux dug himself into deep hole.
And by the time the All-Star break rolled around Lux was hitting just .213 with a .267 OBP and a .295 SLG. This resulted in a -0.3 fWAR and a 60 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR and 38 wRC+ points lower than any Dodger hitter with at least 250 plate appearances at that point in time.
But then the turnaround began for Lux and season started looking up.
Post All-Star Break
When the season got going again after this year’s Midsummer Classic, Lux started out with a bang, hitting safely in nine of his first 12 games. This played a significant role in the overall strong month of July for the Dodgers’ second baseman, where he hit .299 with a .937 OPS.
Lux would go on to follow up his strong July with an equally strong month of August, where he hit to the tune of a .295 AVG and an .884 OPS.
And from an overall standpoint since the All-Star break, Lux has been fantastic at the dish, with a shimmering slash line of .309/.375/.544.
This isn’t simply a fantastic month, Lux has arguably been the best hitter in Dodgers’ star-studded lineup. And that includes the NL MVP and 50/50 candidate, Shohei Ohtani.
Lux’s second half 1.8 fWAR is just behind Ohtani for the team lead, and his second-half 154 wRC+ is eight points higher than Ohtani’s 142.
A big reason for this shift in production can be found in Lux’s batted-ball data. He’s finding himself hitting the ball harder in more situations.
| Soft Contact Rate | Medium Contact Rate | Hard Contact Rate | |
| Pre All-Star Break | 20.4% | 54.2% | 25.4% |
| Post All-Star Break | 16.5% | 45.9% | 37.6% |
Gavin Lux Batted Ball Data 2024, per Fangraphs before Sept. 16 games
This has resulted in Lux getting the ball off the ground more with a rise in both flyball and line drive rates in the second half of the season.
| GroundBall Rate | FlyBall Rate | Line Drive Rate | |
| Pre All-Star Break | 53.7% | 27.4% | 18.9% |
| Post All-Star Break | 45.0% | 30.3% | 24.8% |
Gavin Lux Batted Ball Data 2024, per Fangraphs before Sept. 13 games
How Does Lux’s Hot Streak Impact the Dodgers Moving Forward?
With how strong Los Angeles’ lineup is at the top between Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández and Max Muncy, there are few lineups that can do as much damage as them.
But where Lux has made his impact the most has been accounting for the current weak link in the Dodgers’ top 6; catcher Will Smith.
Smith’s second half form has been a far cry from the first half performance that earned him his second consecutive all-star nod.
Since the All-Star break Smith is slashing .196/.284/.308 with a 0.0 fWAR and a 68 wRC+. In the second half of the season he’s essentially what Lux was to the Dodgers in the first half of the year.
If Smith is able to regain some of his first half form down the stretch and in October, then Lux’s increased productivity only stands to ensure the Dodgers are hole-free from one to nine in their batting order.
| Name | Pos. | PA | AVG | OPS | wRC+ | fWAR |
| 1. S. Ohtani | DH | 668 | .290 | .988 | 168 | 7.0 |
| 2. M. Betts | RF | 463 | .299 | .893 | 150 | 4.4 |
| 3. F. Freeman | 1B | 595 | .280 | .856 | 137 | 3.7 |
| 4. T. Hernández | LF | 598 | .268 | .826 | 130 | 3.0 |
| 5. M. Muncy | 3B | 247 | .225 | .841 | 130 | 1.7 |
| 6. T. Edman | CF | 96 | .300 | .856 | 136 | 0.8 |
| 7. W. Smith | C | 506 | .248 | .759 | 110 | 2.6 |
| 8. G. Lux | 2B | 447 | .248 | .694 | 96 | 1.5 |
| 9. M. Rojas | SS | 312 | .294 | .754 | 112 | 2.7 |
Los Angeles Dodgers Potential 2024 Postseason Batting Order (Stats per Fangraphs prior to Sept. 13 games)
Whether or not Lux can continue his 2024 second half form beyond this season is a story for another day.
But what is for sure is that an already incredibly strong Dodger lineup has gotten even stronger because of Lux. And it couldn’t have happened at a better time as the quest for a World Series is on in L.A.
Only time will tell but with how Lux has been hitting of late he could be the X-factor the Dodgers need to go all the way and reclaim that 2020 feeling in 2024.
