The New York Jets have only claimed one AFC East title since the NFL re-aligned to eight four-team divisions in 2002. That was in 2002, the very first season of the new system. Since the Jets last won the division, the New England Patriots have won 16 times, the Buffalo Bills four times, and the Miami Dolphins once.
New York’s 21-year division title drought is unsurprising when considering the team’s lack of success against its own division. Since 2003, the Jets have a 45-81 (.357) record against the AFC East, the third-worst division record in the NFL ahead of only the Redskins/Commanders (.345) and Browns (.290). Even Washington has three division titles over this period; Cleveland is the only team with a longer division title drought than New York, while the Raiders are tied at 21 years.
Not only have the Jets been unsuccessful against their division over the course of this time period, but they haven’t even been able to muster one blip of in-division excellence over the last 21 seasons. The Jets have never exceeded a division record of 4-2 since the 2002 re-alignment.
Even when the Jets won the division in 2002, their division record was 4-2, and they only landed in first place because they were lucky that a 9-7 record was enough. They also went 4-2 against the AFC East in 2006, 2008, and 2010.
But not once have the Jets gone 5-1 or 6-0 against the AFC East. They are one of only two NFL teams who have never had a season with at least 5 division wins since the 2002 re-alignment, joining the Browns.
In 2024, the Jets have an opportunity to change that.
Listed as AFC East favorites at multiple sportsbooks, New York has enough talent to win a stacked division that features two other Super Bowl hopefuls in the Bills and Dolphins. If they want to pull it off, the Jets must be successful against their own division.
Realistically, the Jets can still claim the AFC East crown with an in-division record of 4-2 or even 3-3, as those Bills and Dolphins games will be tough. If the Jets breeze through the rest of their schedule, they can still come in first place while dropping two or three games in the division.
But for a franchise that has never earned a 5-1 division record… why not do it now?
Even with Buffalo and Miami in the division, the Jets are capable of going 5-1 against the AFC East for the first time in team history. Here’s how they can do it.
Sweep New England
There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about this one. Sweep the Patriots. No excuses.
Yeah, yeah, “Any Given Sunday.” You never know what can happen in this league, especially against the rivals who know you best. And, no, the Jets’ season is not a failure if they somehow drop one of these two games.
Still, after getting mercilessly stomped by the Pats for well over two decades, it’s high time that the Jets return the favor. New England is a rebuilding team with a strong chance of earning a top-three pick in the 2025 draft. New York is gunning for a championship. The Jets should win both games against New England.
The Jets finally snapped their 15-game losing streak against the Patriots in last year’s season finale, claiming a 17-3 win in the snow at Gillette Stadium. New England won the meeting at MetLife in Week 3, escaping with a 15-10 victory in which they held the Jets to 171 yards of offense.
Matt Judon had two sacks and a safety in that win. Judon was a massive headache for the Jets in the Robert Saleh era, collecting 23 total pressures in five games. Luckily for the Jets, Judon is now playing in Atlanta. Add Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, and there is no reason to expect another 10-point outing by the Jets offense when New England visits MetLife in Week 3.
The bar for the Jets offense is extremely low to beat New England. New York’s defense smothered the Patriots offense over the last two years. In four meetings, New England’s offense produced 265.5 yards per game and 10.3 points per game. The Jets’ only issue was a horrendous offense, mainly due to the follies of Zach Wilson. Wilson had a 53.4 passer rating and 7 interceptions in 5 career games against the Patriots.
With even below-average quarterback play – think Tyrod Taylor – the Jets likely would have swept New England with ease in each of the past two seasons. As long as they take care of business and avoid careless turnovers that could flip the game, the Jets should seal the deal this time around. With an extremely turnover-averse quarterback in Rodgers, the Jets shouldn’t have to worry about playing down to bad teams due to poor ball security.
Sweep Buffalo
To get a 5-1 record in the AFC East, the Jets will have to sweep two teams. New England is the easiest opportunity. If they are able to take care of business with the Pats, they have to sweep one of Buffalo or Miami and split with the other team.
Between the Bills and Dolphins, the former seems like the likelier sweep opportunity.
New York split with Buffalo in each of the past two seasons. The Jets already have the Bills’ number at MetLife Stadium, going 2-0 in New Jersey even with Zach Wilson at quarterback in each of those victories.
All the Jets need to do is maintain their success at home and find a way to snag the game in Buffalo. Easy, right?
The defense led the charge in the two home wins. In the 2022 meeting, the Bills had 314 yards of offense (ended up as their 3rd-worst of the season), and in the 2023 meeting, the Bills had 317 yards (ended up as their 2nd-worst of the season). New York also forced two turnovers in the 2022 game and four turnovers in the 2023 game.
Overall, across those two games, the Jets stymied the Bills as well as anyone has been able to in recent years. The only thorn in the Jets’ side – helping the Bills still muster up 16.5 points per game rather than something much worse – was Stefon Diggs. The star receiver had 5 catches for 93 yards in the 2022 loss and 10 catches for 102 yards and 1 touchdown in the 2023 loss.
Now, Josh Allen’s former No. 1 target is out in southeast Texas catching passes from C.J. Stroud. Buffalo did not replace Diggs with an equal talent, and will instead rely on a committee approach from various young players.
With Diggs gone, the Jets have an excellent opportunity to maintain or even improve upon their success against Buffalo in the last two MetLife games. The Jets’ elite cornerback trio will be a major mismatch against a Bills wide receiver unit that appears to be one of the NFL’s weakest (ranked 27th by PFF). If Allen was already bleeding turnovers against the Jets with Diggs on his side, he’ll be even more stressed without him.
Perhaps Allen will over-correct and play with a conservative mentality due to the bad memories of his last two trips to the Meadowlands. If so, awesome. Let Allen check it down and take short scrambles, eliminating the explosive aspect of his game that has made him one of the league’s most unstoppable stars. Maybe the Bills could have beaten the Jets in a field goal-fest last year, but with Aaron Rodgers on the other side, the Jets have the firepower to win if Buffalo wants to plod its way to no turnovers and 13 points.
New York has a good shot of winning at home. The hard part of this equation is winning in Buffalo. The Bills have an NFL-best 27-7 (.794) home record since 2020.
The Bills whacked the Jets in Buffalo last year, winning 32-6 in a game best known for Zach Wilson stumbling over himself when trotting onto the field (and later getting benched). However, led by Mike White, the Jets played the Bills more competitively in the 2022 Buffalo game, losing 20-12 in a game where they had the ball with a chance to tie at the end of the fourth quarter.
With this year’s Buffalo game being played on December 29, there is a good chance of frigid temperatures and treacherous elements. In that weather, New York’s defense should be able to build on the success it had in three of its last four matchups with Buffalo and hold the team to 20 points or less yet again.
To win, the challenge is for New York’s offense to avoid getting completely shut down, as it did over its last two trips to Western New York (18 total points). They don’t have to explode, but they need a decent performance to outlast the Bills in what should be a gritty game.
Thanks to the man under center, the Jets are in an ideal position to do that. Aaron Rodgers is the right type of quarterback to thwart the Bills’ formula for winning at home.
First off, Rodgers won’t be deterred by the temperature and elements after playing in Green Bay for nearly two decades. Secondly, Rodgers is elite at avoiding interceptions, which have been an essential piece of Buffalo’s success at home.
The Bills are fourth in the NFL with 36 interceptions at home since 2020. When they get at least one interception at home, they have a record of 19-1. When they fail to record an interception, they are mortal, going 8-6. The opposing team went interception-free in six of Buffalo’s seven home losses since 2020.
Play great defense, protect the ball, and ride Breece Hall through the cold to a hard-fought win. That is the formula for stealing the Week 17 win in Buffalo. This Jets team is built to get it done. The previous two iterations of the team couldn’t achieve two of those three goals.
Not only have they dealt with turnover-prone quarterbacks, but the lack of respect demanded by their quarterbacks allowed teams to stack the box and shut down the run game, disallowing New York from grounding-and-pounding. With Rodgers backing the defense off, the Jets can ride the run game to victory in situations where they don’t want to place too much pressure on Rodgers, such as a cold late-December game in Buffalo where protecting the ball is crucial.
Not to mention, Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker did not play in that 2022 game, and the Jets still only lost by one score. If those two players are healthy, the Jets will be immeasurably more prepared to win in Buffalo than they were in either of the past two seasons.
Split with Miami
The Jets are capable of sweeping the Dolphins, but for the sake of this article, we’re going to focus on the goal of getting one win out of two. While the Jets have been competitive with Buffalo, the Dolphins have been a much worse matchup.
Miami won three of the four meetings from 2022-23. The lone defeat came in Week 5 of the 2022 season when the Jets ran away with a 40-17 home win. However, the game was closer than the score suggests (Miami missed a go-ahead FG attempt early in the fourth quarter), and the Dolphins had third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson on the field. Thompson later defeated the Jets in Week 18.
With Tua Tagovailoa under center for both games in 2023, the Dolphins obliterated the Jets, getting the sweep with a combined score of 64-13. More than half of the 13 points came on a Brandin Echols pick-six; the Jets did not score an offensive touchdown in either game.
The offensive ineptitude was not unusual for the Jets, but the defensive struggles were certainly out of the ordinary. While the Jets have frequently made Allen look human, Tagovailoa sliced and diced the Jets defense last year. Across the two meetings, Tagovailoa completed 78% of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt. He did throw two interceptions in the first game, but he went turnover-free in the second game.
Miami’s speedy offense is a tough matchup for the Jets defense. They just seem to have the right ingredients to exploit New York’s scheme and philosophies. If the Jets defense cannot shut the Dolphins down, it will be on the Jets offense to step up and win a shootout.
Miami was already below-average defensively last year. The Dolphins ranked 22nd in points per game allowed (23.0) and 19th in defensive DVOA. This offseason, they lost the anchor of their defensive line, Christian Wilkins.
This is a defense that can be exploited – especially outside of Hard Rock Stadium. Miami allowed 29.4 points per game on the road last season, ranked third-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins coughed up at least 30 points in four of their nine road games.
New York has a chance to rack up a mountain of points when Miami comes to town in Week 18 for what could be a division championship game. Yes, Miami’s defense stomped the Jets last year, but using last year’s games as a basis would be a waste of time due to the lack of talent on the field. If this year’s Jets team is healthy, Rodgers will have everything he needs to surpass 30 points against Miami’s defense.
The Dolphins might be one of the few teams in the NFL who can run up the score on the Jets defense. Sweeping them will be tough. But the Jets can take one of the two games even if they cannot stop Mike McDaniel’s offense in either game. That’s because dominating on defense is no longer the Jets’ only path to victory. They have the firepower to win games even when their defense plays poorly.
In just one of the two Miami games – likelier the home game – the Jets need their offense to utterly destroy Miami’s exploitable defense, putting enough points on the board to win regardless of whether Jeff Ulbrich can figure out Mike McDaniel. They need to have one of those days where it feels like every button they push is the right one, leading to an effortless day of ball movement and red-zone finishing. This is something New York can do now that it never could before.
In recent years, the Jets needed everything to break right just to put up modest point totals. Think back to last year’s supposedly great offensive performance against the Chiefs, where it felt like they were exploding (by their standards), and yet they scored a measly 20 points. People thought the Chiefs’ dynasty was over when they were averaging 20 points per game in the middle of 2023. For the Jets, scoring 20 points was a “huge step forward.”
The Jets’ problem was that they were too low on talent to have the ceiling of reaching high point totals, even on days when things were clicking. They had Kansas City figured out that day. But they just weren’t quite sharp enough to capitalize on those answers with the consistency that is required to produce points at an elite level. So, even though it felt like they were playing really well – hitting quite a few explosive plays – there were little missed opportunities here and there that could have easily turned 20 points into 30+ points.
Whether it was the quarterback, offensive line, wide receivers, or a penalty, some talent deficiency was always there to prevent the Jets from tearing the roof off when they were on the precipice of doing so. Now, the Jets have enough talent to light up the scoreboard on their best days. When they get into one of those infallible rhythms, they are capable of turning it into 35 or even 40 points.
If the Jets want to win the Super Bowl, they must be equally as capable of winning 37-34 as they are of winning 13-10. We know they can do the latter. The two Miami games will be a fantastic opportunity to prove they can do the former.
5-1 on the horizon?
Objectively speaking, it is probably fair to set the bar at a 4-2 division record. If the Jets can sweep New England and notch splits with Buffalo and Miami, that would be a successful year in the division.
From there, the Jets could get themselves in reach of the division title (11+ wins) by going at least 7-4 outside of the division, which should be an achievable task considering that four of the hardest games on their schedule are the ones against Buffalo and Miami.
Don’t rule out a 5-1 division record, though. It’s something that nearly every NFL franchise has accomplished at some point over the past two decades. If all of them could do it at least once… why not a team that features Aaron Rodgers surrounded by a stacked roster?
The Jets should expect themselves to sweep New England. They have Buffalo’s number at home and are equipped to grind out a cold late-December road win. They have the quarterback and weapons to get at least one win against a Miami team that can be exploited defensively.
