With just nine games remaining in the 2024-25 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s first-round opponent remains unknown. Numerous possibilities exist in the tight race for the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference wild card spots. However, if the season concluded today (March 31), the Lightning would end up in a rematch with the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.
How do the Lightning fare against the Panthers in a playoff series? Will their roster overhaul be enough to change this season’s outcome against Florida? This mini-series will preview how the Lightning match up against their potential playoff opponents before the confirmed matchup. Furthermore, they could end up facing multiple of the teams previewed in later rounds.
Offense
Five-on-Five
Starting with five-on-five offense, Tampa Bay stylistically is more diverse than Florida. The Lightning can play off the cycle or the rush to create scoring chances, while Florida is a pure dump-and-chase team. The Panthers will put the puck behind the opposing defense and retrieve it through their tenacity and physicality. Moving to shot selection once possession is established, we know the Lightning love to find those perfect passing plays. Tampa Bay will pass up a shot opportunity from the perimeter for a better look from in tight. However, Florida does the complete opposite of this. The Panthers rank second in shot attempts per 60 (CF/60) at five-on-five only behind the Carolina Hurricanes per Natural Stat Trick. Florida throws pucks on the net from all over the ice, regardless of the location.
Power Play
The Lightning and Panthers replicate their five-on-five play style through their power play. The Lightning are a little more selective with their shot attempts versus the Panthers. The Lightning’s first unit looks much different without Steven Stamkos, who led Tampa Bay in goals when these two teams met in the playoffs last season.
Instead, the Lightning elect to shoot from higher in the center lane without Stamkos on their top unit. As for Florida, their top unit looks different without Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad. Trade deadline acquisition Seth Jones and rookie Mackie Samoskevich are filling those roles. Tampa Bay and Florida rank top three in most shorthanded goals allowed this season, so keep an eye out for some clutch special teams goals if these two teams clash.
Defense
Five-on-Five
The Lightning don’t touch the Panthers’ systematic defensive structure. Tampa Bay has a ton of trust in their goaltender and allows teams to shoot from the perimeter. The Lightning prioritize the danger zone or the slot when defending. They don’t want to surrender shot attempts in close and exchange three mediocre chances for one quality look on offense. In other words, the Lightning conserve some of their energy defensively. On the other hand, the Panthers’ center depth is so responsible defensively, almost acting as a third defenseman. The Panthers do not give up any shots, regardless of the location, and can be a nightmare to try to score on.
Penalty Kill
The Lightning and Panthers have scored a combined 22 shorthanded goals this season. While both these teams have exceptional power plays in the upper half of the NHL, their penalty kills are just as impressive. Tampa Bay and Florida take the “power kill” approach, where teams don’t let one less player on the ice stop them from trying to score. Don’t be surprised if the term “power play defense” emerges as a key factor in this series because both of these teams can change the series with their shorthanded offensive capabilities.
Goaltending
Sergei Bobrovsky has had a respectable season with 11.15 goals saved above expected (GSAx) per Evolving Hockey and a .849 high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) at five-on-five. However, Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to play otherworldly this season and ranks eighth with 23.04 goals saved above expected and first with a .874 HDSV%. Despite a rough go last season, Vasilevskiy has returned to form for Tampa Bay, while Bobrovsky continues to age like fine wine between the pipes for Florida. The crucial factors are that Vasilevskiy makes the easy saves on Florida’s perimeter shot attempts, and Bobrovsky comes up big against Tampa Bay’s high-danger opportunities.
X-Factors
With X-factors, these are players who, if they can perform at a high level in a potential playoff series, would be difference-makers in the outcome. For the Lightning, that’s their middle six forwards like Oliver Bjorkstrand and Anthony Cirelli. These two forwards are responsible defensively and need to contribute timely offense when the Panthers have the Lightning’s star power on lockdown. For the Panthers, Samoskevich and Jones will make the difference. Samoskevich is a skilled rookie with blazing speed that can help mimic the offensive power lost without Tkachuk. As for Jones, he will be critical in helping to replicate Brandon Montour’s role from last season on the back end.
Early Preview: How the Lightning Can Win
The Lightning stack up much better against the Panthers compared to last season. The team has a well-rounded forward core with three effective scoring lines versus just one and a half lines. Their defense and goaltending also improved massively, with the ability to rival the offensive weapons in Florida. As long as the Lightning get the easy saves from the perimeter, stop the Panthers’ power kill, and their waves of offensive depth can crack down Florida’s tight defensive structure, the Lightning have a good chance of winning a Sunshine State showdown.
