In one week, the Tennessee Titans will prepare to take Cam Ward first overall and then begin the rest of a deeply important draft in the subsequent rounds. So much has been made of their lack of a Third Round pick, staring down a tremendous wait between picks 35 and 103.
All along, Titans brass hasn’t been shy about their desire to find a way to add draft picks, particularly in the top-100. That’s why a trade down from 35, should the right opportunity present itself to them, makes so much sense and is relatively likely.
There’s no doubt about it, splitting the 35th pick into a pair of Day 2 selections later in the proceedings is the most straightforward way to accomplish this goal. But it’s not the only way to get to where they’d like to go, and it’s not a perfect solution either. Trading down from 35 is likely to mean passing on the opportunity to draft a fringe 1st rounder that fell into your lap. Certain players in this class will be much more painful to turn their backs on than others, but it’s really just a numbers game at this point: only 34 players can go before they’re on the clock in the 2nd round. Their options are liable to be hard to pass on.
This is, in part, why I’ve been arguing for them to pursue a trade of Will Levis on or before the Friday night of Rounds 2 and 3. It’s what I believe would be best for both the player, as well as possibly what’s best for the team. Could you potentially get more in a trade later in the summer? Maybe. But that’s no certainty.
And the simple reality is that quarterback-curious teams in the draft who are staring down QB5-QB8 in the 3rd and 4th rounds will have to do a basic cost analysis: would we rather spend this pick straight up for one of these passers from a really uninspiring class, or could we spend less than the full value of the pick on a trade for Will Levis?
For better or for worse (usually the latter), draft pedigree and priors stick with players long into their careers. It’s why every year we see a bevy of trades and signings for the “former first rounder” who is downright bad. Coaches and executives believe what they believe on these guys. And they often think they can fix them.
Will Levis was a fringe First Round prospect, who has demonstrated he has every physical trait you could ask for in the NFL. What he needs, obviously, is for the game to slow down around him and to improve on his decision-making. A change of scenery could do him some real good at this point. And him being a (albeit small and totally unfair) distraction with Cam on the roster does nobody any good.
So trade him now. I did, in my Mock Draft 3.0 which you can read here. I identified the Buccaneers as the team to trade with in my mock, but there are around a dozen teams in the league you could make the case for as the right fit. I wrote about each case individually right here.
I think Levis could be dealt for roughly a 3rd/5th round pick swap. Tennessee has a pair of 5ths, and in my mock the send pick 141 for pick 84 in the back of the 3rd. This comes out to somewhere between a mid-5th and an early-6th Round valuation on Levis, depending on the trade chart you use.
Sound too steep? Unrealistic? I disagree. I think it's easy to underestimate the trade value of QBs in general. Take a look at this list of every recent QB trade linked here, and perhaps your mind will be changed. I think Levis can reasonably fetch anywhere from a mid-4th to a mid-6th round pick value. Perhaps that’s comes in the form of a pick, straight up. But if I were the Titans, I’d be working hard to try to parlay it into a late Day 2 pick in a swap.
Still not buying a 5th transforming into a 3rd? Fine. Let’s play it as conservatively as possible. The Titans have a pair of 4ths as well, so make one of them the trade chip. Who cares which of their six Day 3 picks it takes. Who they find to trade will dictate the specifics, because of where their 3rd round pick is exactly. A pick in the 60s and a pick in the 90s certainly aren’t the same thing.
The point, in the end, is that turning a Day 3 pick into a Day 2 pick by shipping Levis off to legitimately greener pastures for the future of his career isn’t a pipe dream. It’s possible, and the Titans should bark up every tree seeing if they could get it done.
