Isaac Howard’s name will come up a lot over the next several weeks. One, because he’s dominating college hockey. Two, because there will be talk as the March 7 trade deadline nears about how much NHL teams covet the Lightning’s top prospect.
Don’t worry about the latter. Howard’s not going anywhere. Yes, general manager Julien BriseBois indicated recently that nothing is off the table when it comes to best positioning the Lightning for a deep postseason run. But teams won’t be able to pry away the 31st overall pick in the 2022 draft, He’s too big a part of the franchise’s future, especially since it traded most of its first-round picks.
On Jan. 24, BriseBois traveled to Michigan a day before the Lightning played Detroit to watch Howard suit up for Michigan State against Minnesota (and fellow 2022 Lightning draft pick Connor Kurth).
In his third season and second at Michigan State, Howard has emerged as one of the best players in college hockey. He entered Friday leading Division I players in goals (20), points (39) and points per game (1.44). He had helped the Spartans to the No. 2 ranking, making him a leading candidate to win the Hobey Baker Award, given annually to the top player in college hockey.
“I’ve seen Isaac on video a lot this year, and I could see him taking a step, but seeing it live, it was impressive,” BriseBois said during his midseason media availability. “Even meeting with him after the game, you can tell he’s spending time in the gym. He’s got the body of an NHL man now, and that’s not through any fault of his before, just physical maturity from (being) a young guy.
“There’s a little more pop in his skating, and his play has really evolved. His two-way play is much better, his competitiveness in battles, being able to win battles, because now he’s physically stronger, being able to make more plays through checks. These were the things that we told him he needed to continue to work on, and he’s worked on them.”
It’s certainly possible Howard could turn pro after this season — the Frozen Four ends on April 12. If he does, the prospect of a dynamic player like him joining a Lightning team in need of forward depth at the end of the season and a potential playoff run is enticing. The Lightning’s final regular season game is April 17. Keep in mind, there’s no salary cap in the postseason.
“I think, in fairness, right now we need to let those guys focus on their seasons,” BriseBois said. “All of them, that’s what they need to do right now. That’s what they control. Go out there, help your team win as much as possible. Go as far as you can. Once your season’s finished at the college level, then we’ll have those conversations and see what makes the most sense for both sides.”
Last season, 2022 first-round picks Cutter Gauthier (Boston College) and Frank Nazar (Michigan) played for the Ducks and Blackhawks, respectively, after their college seasons ended in the Frozen Four.
If Howard was to join the Lightning at some point this season, it would give the team two 2022 first-rounders in their lineup: Howard, who turned 21 on March 30, and 20-year-old Conor Geekie.
Timing is everything for Bolts, cap
After years of nominal increases, including a flat cap during the pandemic — when the Lightning won back-to-back Stanley Cups — the NHL salary cap will see a major spike over the next three seasons.
The league and players union announced Friday that the cap will increase by $25.5 million over the next three seasons. It will jump up $7.5 million next season — a bigger bump than the initial projection of $4.5 million — to $92.5 million.
The increases are contingent on a new collective bargaining agreement (the current deal expires after the 2025-26 season). The cap will go up another $8.5 million for 2026-27 and then another $9.5 million for 2027-28, when there will be a $113.5 million limit.
One of BriseBois' greatest strengths has been his ability to master the cap, especially as it increased by just $8.5 million from 2018 to its current $88 million. Despite being cap-strapped, he managed to sign the Lightning’s young core to long-term contracts. As spending goes up, those deals will age well and become huge bargains compared to what will be spent on the open market for similar players.
Brayden Point ($9.5 million annual average value), Jake Guentzel ($9 million AAV), Brandon Hagel ($6.5 million AAV) and Anthony Cirelli ($6.25 million AAV) are signed through at least 2030. The four players are averaging 23.5 goals through this season’s first 50 games. Nick Paul, who has 14 goals, is signed through 2029 at a team-friendly $3.15 million AAV.
Having those players locked into fixed cap hits will allow the Lightning to not only make plays for upcoming free agents but also keep their own, most notably Nikita Kucherov, who can become an unrestricted free agent after 2026-27.
Knowing the cap structure for the next several years now will allow BriseBois to open extension talks earlier than he could with Steven Stamkos. It also will give him the opportunity to pursue an extension next offseason with defenseman Ryan McDonagh before he enters the final season of his contract. BriseBois said there already have been preliminary talks.
BriseBois got the Lightning through tight times under a flat cap, and his shrewd moves this offseason — turning the page on Stamkos, signing Guentzel, trading Mikhail Sergachev and his big salary to Utah for defenseman J.J. Moser and forward Conor Geekie — made Tampa Bay better, younger and more favorably positioned under the cap.
Now, having cap flexibility that he’s never before seen as Lightning GM will open a new set of doors for him.
