With the salary cap rising and a few expiring contracts, the Tampa Bay Lightning have some decisions to make on roster spots this summer. One of the expiring unrestricted free agents (UFAs) is Nick Perbix, a 26-year-old defenseman drafted by Tampa Bay in the sixth round back at the 2017 NHL Draft. While Perbix has found some success and posted solid underlying numbers for the Lightning, there may be an opportunity to replace him from within the organization if he tests the open market.
Is Crozier NHL Ready?
Introduce Maxwell Crozier, a 25-year-old right-handed defender taken in the fourth round of the 2019 NHL Draft by the Lightning. Crozier got his first taste of NHL action during the 2023-24 season with Tampa Bay, where he notched two assists in 13 regular-season games. Furthermore, Crozier also made his playoff debut as a rookie in a series against the Florida Panthers, averaging just over 14 minutes a night in three contests. Despite flashes of promise, Crozier appeared in just five regular-season games for the Bolts in 2024-25, spending most of the season in the American Hockey League (AHL) with the Syracuse Crunch.
Last season, he tallied four goals and 17 assists for 21 points in 49 AHL games, including four assists in six playoff games. This season with the Crunch was another developmental step for Crozier. Named one of the team’s alternate captains, the defender notched a career-best nine goals and 24 assists for 31 points in 52 games with Syracuse. With a small sample of NHL games and a clear trajectory at the minor league level, is Crozier suitable for a full-time role with the Lightning for the 2025-26 season?
Crozier May Leave a Better Impact on Lilleberg
Tampa Bay’s bottom defense pairing has created controversy over the past few seasons. After all, the depth has thinned out due to the Cup tax, or the concept of players pricing themselves out of their championship teams after winning the Stanley Cup. Emil Lilleberg is a Norwegian blueliner with a massive frame and raw talent. He can play an exceptionally physical game that punishes opposing forwards and hammers the puck pretty hard. However, he and Perbix haven’t worked out the best as a pairing. On the other hand, despite a small sample size, Lilleberg and Crozier have been a match for head coach Jon Cooper.
In 446 minutes away from Crozier during the 2023-24 season, Lilleberg controlled 47.66% of the shot share (SF%) and 33.33% of the goal share (GF%) on the ice at five-on-five per Natural Stat Trick. Furthermore, he controlled just 42.37% of the on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five. Meanwhile, with Crozier as his partner, Lilleberg improved in all three categories. Despite just 95 minutes at five-on-five, they controlled 47.89% of the shots, 44.44% of the goals, and 55.11% of the expected goals.
We have a much better sample size for the Lilleberg and Perbix pairing over the past two seasons. With 919 minutes together at five-on-five, the pairing controls 48.83% of the shots, 44.29% of the goals, and 47.92% of the expected goals. As we can see, the shot and goal percentages are identical for the two different pairings, but the quality is drastically different. The important factor to consider is which forwards were paired on the ice with Lilleberg and Perbix versus Lilleberg and Crozier. From my analysis, it appears the forward combinations were relatively similar, so this is likely due to different styles of play between Perbix and Crozier.
Closing Thoughts
With Perbix likely wanting a solid raise, the Lightning have options from within the organization to save cap space for the 2025-26 season. Perbix is a solid NHL defenseman, but his expiration date might be due in Tampa Bay. What we’ve seen from a Lilleberg and Crozier pairing in a small sample size is enticing, and don’t be surprised if Cooper allows them to thrive together in a smaller role next season.
