He needed Week 18 to usurp Saquon Barkley, but spurred by a phenomenal finish Jahmyr Gibbs was the top fantasy running back in full PPR scoring last season. The term "league winner" is used too loosely sometimes, but with three 25-plus point performances (full PPR) in Week 15-17 Gibbs was undeniably the one at the running back position in 2024.
A change in offensive coordinator for the Lions is a natural cause for concern for fantasy managers. But John Morton, who was on the Lions' offensive staff in 2022, may be able to boost an underutilized part of Gibbs' game.
The Lions' EPA on screen passes dropped from 2022 to 2023 before rebounding some last year. Gibbs took notable steps as a pass catcher last season, despite only matching his rookie season catch total (52). For two years, whatever the reasons, Ben Johnson struggled to maximize Gibbs in the passing game.
The prominent fly in Gibbs' ointment, even if he's a worthy running mate, is David Montgomery. As long as both are healthy, they will share work in the Lions' backfield. Gibbs' run late last season of course came when Montgomery was out.
Jahmyr Gibbs' full ceiling could be unveiled in 2025
In parallel with his prediction Montgomery will have some regression in the touchdown column, Pro Football Focus fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke thinks Morton may tilt the snap share in the Lions' backfield toward Gibbs this season.
"Morton has stressed the importance of explosive plays, which is something Gibbs is exceptional at. We should expect how snaps and touches are distributed to change under Morton’s offense. Most of the potential changes should be positive instead of negative for Gibbs."
As Jahnke noted, Gibbs per-touch numbers are excellent. His 5.5 yards per carry and 0.06 touchdowns per carry are second-best among running backs over the last two seasons, and his 0.9 fantasy points per carry is the best among running backs over that span.
We saw how the uptick in touches last season (24.2 touches per game without Montgomery; 16 touches per game with him) led to boom time for Gibbs.
Question marks on the interior offensive line, exacerbated by center Frank Ragnow's retirement, may shift the Lions' offense to passing the ball a bit more this season. It may also lead to quicker passes to make it easier for the interior line to protect the immobile Jared Goff, i.e. more targets for Gibbs.
As great as Gibbs has been, there's still untapped potential we haven't seen over a full season. If Morton indeed shifts the backfield snap share toward him, and finds the secret sauce to getting the most out of him in the passing game, the sky is the limit for Gibbs in 2025.
