Sunday's Lions-Vikings game for all the marbles in the NFC could be decided by Jared Goff's ability to beat Brian Flores (or not) in one particular game of chess.
For most NFL quarterbacks, one of the worst places you can be on the field at any time is when you're trying to counter the blitz packages designed by Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Not only is Flores the league's most frequent dispenser of the blitz; he's also the most effective in conjunction with his players.
So far this season, the Vikings have the most opponent attempts with five of more pass-rushers (224), and Minnesota's blitz rate of 38.0% is also the NFL's highest. Quarterbacks have completed 147 passes for 1,718 yards, eight touchdowns, 11 interceptions, a league-low opponent passer rating of 79.1, and an opponent EPA per Play of -0.07, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for second-lowest in the NFL behind only the Denver Broncos' -0.08.
Flores' blitzes are so effective because they're not just five or six guys coming at the quarterback from the defensive line with the occasional zone pressure. Opposing quarterbacks have to decipher blitzes in which safeties crash down from the deep third as linebackers and defensive linemen move into coverages you simply don't expect. At the same time, post-snap coverage switches further muddy the picture, and when you get home with your blitzes as often as the Vikings do — their 175 pressures and 25.7% pressure rate are both among the NFL's best — it's kind of a hellscape for just about any signal-caller.
Perhaps the lone exception this season — the one guy who traveled through Flores' blitzes as if it was just another lazy Sunday afternoon — was Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. In Detroit's 31-29 Week 7 win over Minnesota, Flores sent the house at Goff quite often, and more often than not, Goff threw it right back in Flores' face.
Goff faced five or more pass-rushers in that game, and he was stellar. He faced some kind of blitz on 14 of his 29 dropbacks, and he completed 12 of 13 passes for 147 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, a passer rating of 139.4, and a Passing EPA of +7.30, which is really, really good. And Goff wasn't just checking it down, either. A total of 56% of Goff's completions went for at least eight yards, and he had four completions of at least 15 yards, with just 38 of those 102 yards coming after the catch.
Now, with the Sunday night rematch between these two 14-2 teams deciding the NFC North and the one-seed in the NFC overall, it's important to look at how Goff was able to slice and dice these Flores blitzes that have given just about every other quarterback all kinds of agita this season.
By the way, it should come as no surprise that Goff was able to do what he did, as he's been one of the NFL's best quarterbacks against the blitz this season. He's completed 83 of 119 passes against five or more rushers for 1,015 yards, 414 air yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 122.4, and a Passing EPA of 34.39 — third-best in the league behind only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. When you're right up there with the two guys who are the dominant characters in the NFL MVP discussion, that's pretty good.
On Goff's touchdown against Flores' blitzes — a 35-yarder to receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown with 8:44 left in the first half — Goff had to figure out which of the seven defenders at the line were coming after him, and who was going to drop into coverage. Because as much as Flores loves to blitz, the Vikings also led the league in percentage of snaps with three or fewer pass-rushers in 2023, and in 2024, only the Atlanta Falcons (14%) have done so at a higher rate than Minnesota's 9%. It's one more way in which you just never know what you're going to get from Flores' playbook.
In this case, safety Harrison Smith was the only defender who dropped into coverage (hook/curl), and it was six-on-six with running back David Montgomery helping out. As the Lions have one of the NFL's best offensive lines, and their backs protect very well (sadly, Montgomery is out for this game with an MCL sprain), Goff had the time needed to get the ball out to St. Brown on the vertical seam route against Quarters coverage. There appeared to be an issue in coverage where safety Josh Metellus thought he would have help up top, and you can see safety Cam Bynum trying to figure out which way to go. So, perhaps this was a Cover-4 shell that was supposed to morph into something else. Regardless, Goff and the Lions were able to take advantage from front to back.
Goff is also one of the NFL's best throwers to places in the middle of the field — he may be the most accurate when it comes to intermediate in-breaking routes — and this allows him to target and exploit voids against blitzes when defenders who could be there to stop those throws are committed to pressure.
The Vikings found this out the hard way on Goff's 16-yard completion to St. Brown with 13.08 left in the fourth quarter. Minnesota brought six defenders, and linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. vacated his area to bring that extra pressure. This was third-and-2, so the coverage plan was interesting in that Harrison Smith dropped deep to St. Brown's side, and nobody matched St. Brown through his route. Metellus was guarding running back Jahmyr Gibbs underneath in case the release route was the plan. It wasn't; Goff was going to hit his favorite receiver on the dig ball no matter what. This was another completion against Quarters structure.
Now, could Flores counter this time around with more man coverage? That would jibe with a trend we've seen from the Vikings of late. In Weeks 1-10, Minnesota played some kind of man coverage on just 17.7% of their snaps, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. From Weeks 11 through 14, that rate kicked up to 24.6%, and since Week 15, it's kicked up again to 30.2%. This tells us that Flores has developed more faith in his pass defenders to match opposing receivers through their routes when the blitz is on.
The only problem with that idea is that Goff has been a surgeon against man coverage this season, and specifically man coverage with five or more pass-rushers. Against those particular concepts, he's completed 26 of 42 passes for 313 yards, 184 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 100.8, and a Passing EPA of +11.61. This is in part because Goff has become That Kind Of Quarterback, along with the excellent protection he generally receives, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's brilliance when it comes to receiver spacing and deployment.
So when it comes to one of the most important games of the season — the one that will decide the playoff path in the NFC — the most important factor may be the chess match between Brian Flores and Jared Goff. And that's what you want; two guys who are doing their thing at the highest levels with the most ways to create and ensure success.
It will be utterly fascinating to see the results of that clash on Sunday night.
