The Detroit Lions have done a lot of remarkable things in the 2024 season. They're the NFC's one-seed for the first time... well, ever. They got there despite a list of injuries to key players (especially on defense) that makes you wonder if somebody in the organization did something weird in a past life. Head coach Dan Campbell is one of the most effective motivators in sports, and Campbell's two primary assistants - offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn - are most likely going to be head coaches sooner than later. Jared Goff has become one of the NFL's better quarterbacks, which is something else if you are familiar with his early NFL tenure, and overall (even with the personnel losses), this is as stacked a roster as any team could want.
But one thing the Lions have not had to do this season is to deal with the Washington Commanders, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. They must do so this Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EST in the divisional round, and Vegas doesn't seem to think it's that big a deal. The Lions are +7.5-point home favorites to advance to the NFC Championship game (which they did last season), and while there are all kinds of reasons to buy into that in the abstract, there's one reason to hesitate on that number.
That reason, of course, is Jayden Daniels.
The second overall pick in the 2024 draft out of LSU has already put together one of the most remarkable rookie quarterback seasons in pro football history. Including the postseason, he's completed 355 of 515 passes (68.3%) for 3,836 yards (7.4 yards per attempt), 27 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 100.8. When you factor in his 927 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns on 161 carries (5.8 yards per attempt), and the fact that opposing defenses have to make him their focus in ways that few quarterbacks of any experience are able to force that issue, it's no wonder that the Lions are on point in every possible way.
"Absolutely, his demeanor and how calm he is," Glenn said Wednesday of Daniels' ability to do things one doesn't expect from rookie quarterbacks. "I mean, it pops out all over the TV copy when you watch the TV copy, and another thing that pops out is, he's having fun playing this game, which we all should, but you can tell that he's having fun, and there's no better way to play this game than when you're in a situation where you're having fun. I mean, obviously winning has a lot to do with that, but his ability to go make plays, even when he doesn't make plays, he's having fun playing the game, and I think that's one of the reasons why he's so successful. He's not taking this for more than what it is, he understands what his skillset is, and he's utilizing everybody on that offense to make him better. It's almost like he's trying to be a point guard, and he's just delivering and leading."
There are ways in which Daniels can absolutely nuke what the Lions prefer to do on defense. Detroit's man coverage rate of 44.9% is the NFL's highest, but against man coverage this season, Daniels has completed 75 of 134 passes for 987 yards, 316 air yards, nine touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 98.7.
Playing man coverage against Jayden Daniels this season has generally led to catastrophic coverage issues. Of course, the Lions play more man than any other team. pic.twitter.com/XUswh3GKOY
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 16, 2025
Also - and this has been especially true since their defensive injuries started piling up - the Lions will blitz with impunity. They've rushed four just 64% of the time this season, which is the NFL's fifth-lowest rate. But against five or more pass-rushers, Daniels has completed 79 of 125 passes for 1,011 yards, 568 air yards, nine touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 134.6.
And if we really want to get forensic, against man coverage with five or more pass-rushers, Daniels has completed 39 of 67 passes for 565 yards, 387 air yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.6.
When it comes to defending Daniels, one must pick one's poison.
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 16, 2025The @Lions love to blitz with man coverage behind the pressure.
Let's see how man blitzes have worked against Jayden Daniels this season. pic.twitter.com/CVFPuw9MFF
There's also the small matter of Detroit's issues against running quarterbacks. Against quarterback runs or scrambles this season (per Sports Info Solutions), the Lions have allowed 449 rushing yards, 167 yards after contact, and six touchdowns on 68 attempts. Their 6.6 yards per carry allowed is the NFL's second-worst behind the Houston Texans (7.8), their first down percentage allowed of 47.1% is the NFL's second-worst behind the New England Patriots (49.2), and their EPA per rushing attempt allowed of 0.38 is the NFL's sixth-worst.
Dan Campbell addressed that issue on Wednesday.
"I know this, running quarterbacks are hard, they're hard to defend, and it's like, somebody tells you that, ‘We don't handle running quarterbacks very well.' Well, tell me the team that does, give me the next team. When you're trying to deal with Lamar [Jackson], and you're trying to deal with a guy like Josh Allen, there are a lot of teams that struggle against those guys, they're not easy to stop, and there's a reason for that. So we know we've got our hands full, but we're going to have a plan in place, AG's [Aaron Glenn is] going to have a hell of a plan, our guys are going to execute it, and you know what, he may make a run, he may pop a run or two. That's just the nature of the game and the way that some of these guys are able to maneuver, but that doesn't mean that you win the game."
Where the Commanders might want to switch things up is in two of their primary tendencies - no-huddle, and empty sets. This season, Daniels has by far the NFL"s most no-huddle dropbacks (415; Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears ranks second with 165). Daniels has completed 218 of 328 passes in no-huddle for 2,345 yards, 1,273 air yards, 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.6.
Daniels also leads the league in dropbacks in empty sets (137) and he's completed 69 of 110 passes out of empty for 887 yards, 438 air yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, 55 pressures, 14 sacks, and a passer rating of 97.0.
But here's the thing. The Lions have allowed 46 catches on 77 no-huddle attempts for 593 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 72.1 - the fifth-lowest in the NFL this season.
And against passes out of empty formations, Glenn's defense has given up 46 catches on 73 attempts for 624 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 83.4.
The usual obvious advantage no-huddle is that it forces opposing defenses to be more static in their substitutions and concepts, because the clock is moving at a different speed. But the Lions' defense is so fundamentally sound, and they're so good at changing the picture post-snap, they've tended to negate that benefit. And they have the athletes to track Daniels' receivers all over the field, even when it's empty, and there are four and five receivers going wide in the formation.
That said, it's possible that the Lions haven't seen no-huddle like the Commanders do no-huddle.
"Yeah, it's the same – communication, obviously, and they've gotten a number of people with that," Campbell said Thursday of Washington's no-huddle concepts. "They're back to the ball, and then they're running personnel straight to the ball, and then here they go. And I will tell you, there's a number of things that have come up where they're not holding the football, and that's a substitution. So, we'll be on that, we'll talk about all of that pregame, we're going to be able to sub, getting the packages that we need to, and really it's the... Okay, when we have our groups that come in, we know we're matching immediately. We're not getting in a huddle, we're hearing the calls, we come out, and we're matching them because then the official will get out, and we're ready to play. We've been working it, talking it, seeing it, but it's challenging. Because they'll do some third down now where they run a jumbo tight end, and he's reporting and running, and putting his hand in the ground, and it's unbalanced. They're pretty creative with all of that."
One more thing to consider - as famous as the Lions have become for their fearless nature on fourth down (22 successful fourth-down conversions on 33 attempts), it's the Commanders who have the NFL's best conversion rate at 87.0%, which is what you get when you convert 20 of 23. When it's needed, the Commanders are perfectly capable of making it a four-down game, and the Lions are aware of this, as well. Daniels is obviously a huge part of that.
"Yes, so now you look at what they're going to do on third down, alright?" Glenn posited. "It really opens up their offense, because they might tend to run the ball more on third-and-5, third-and-6, because they know they're going for it on fourth down. We have to be in tune to that, and that comes from film study. So, we've done a good job of understanding how they try to operate, to try to make sure we're prepared for all those things."
As for Daniels, he's as aware and unfazed by this challenge as he's been with every other he's overcome.
"Nah, it's just another game to me," he said Tuesday. regarding the specter of another postseason opportunity. "Obviously, everybody puts the implications and makes it bigger than what it really is. But at the end of the day, it's still the game. You've got to go out there and stick to your routine, stick to who you are, the process of what got you there, and go out there and just play football. And then to the guys, we're just taking it day by day, be where our feet are, and we'll handle business when the time comes."
It's not that simple for most people, but Jayden Daniels seems to make it so. And he is on the precipice of doing it once again.
