Jed Hoyer’s Do-or-Bye Season

Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer is in the last year of a five-year contract. After spending lavishly for the past two seasons on players and their new manager, tensions are high to produce a winner. With expectations running high, the pressure is on Hoyer to produce a 90-win contender. It may be that 2025 will be Hoyer’s do-or-bye season.

Cubs President Jed Hoyer’s Do-or-Bye Season

It’s Not the Economy, Stupid

If spending were the only key to winning the National League Central division, the Cubs would’ve won easily. They had the seventh-highest payroll in MLB overall and outspent the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Atlanta Braves on their 26-man roster. All three of those teams went to the postseason.

The NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers did the same, and with half the Cubs’ payroll. This would suggest Hoyer is getting a very low talent-to-salary production ratio. Of the Cubs’ four $20 million men, only Ian Happ performed at or near his career average. Happ equaled his career best with 25 home runs and had a career-best 86 RBI. Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, and Seiya Suzuki were disappointing in different ways.

Swanson played well on the field after a slow start, but never quite got going at the plate. Bellinger was well above average at every position he played, but well below average at the plate. And Suzuki hasn’t panned out in right field the way Hoyer and the Cubs had expected.

Anticipation, Is Keepin’ [Us] Waitin’

Where Hoyer is concerned, “expectation” seems to be the operative word. Every press conference is filled with this season’s disappointed expectations and the expectation of a better year next year. If Hoyer is being diplomatic, he needs a lesson in optics. He has control of one of baseball’s highest-paid teams, and he’s set Craig Counsell up as the highest-paid manager in the game. Why did he do that if the “expectation” isn’t to compete in the postseason? The answer is he does want to win, he may just not know how to get the Cubs there. In his recent postseason press conference, Hoyer talked about some of the five WAR players who weren’t expected to play at the level they did this season. He’s not wrong about that, but do the Cubs have any players with that kind of potential?

Potential Was Better At Season’s End

The simple answer is yes. In 2019, Cody Bellinger had an 8.6 WAR, winning a Gold Glove and the NL MVP award. But his injury suffered this season when he hit the wall in center field may have been a blessing in disguise. It led to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong, a legitimate possibility to become a five-plus WAR guy.

PCA’s play in centerfield allowed Counsell to play Bellinger in right. That left Suzuki, arguably the Cubs’ best hitter and one of the best in baseball, in the DH position. Hoyer then acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes at the trade deadline, giving the team a bonafide hot corner man. And by season’s end, Miguel Amaya was hitting and fielding at a higher rate.

There is certainly room for improvement regarding expectations among this cast. Furthermore, the Cubs definitely need improvement in their bullpen and another solid starter, although not necessarily an ace. So, what is Hoyer to do with this?

The Bellinger Question

Without a doubt, on the hitting front, the fate of Cody Bellinger figures large in Hoyer’s plan. If Belly chooses to opt out and try his hand at free agency, Hoyer will need to try to land a big bat. The obvious choice here would be New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto (41 home runs/.988 OPS). Soto would fill the hole in right field and the big bat issue left open by Bellinger’s departure.

Should Bellinger stay in Chicago, the right move is arguably to go for an ace starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes. Signing a pitcher of that caliber would give the Cubs one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Hoyer’s already proven he’s willing to spend big for the right talent, but these deals would exceed any he has made thus far.

Other free agents this offseason include Jack Flaherty, Blake Snell, and Max Fried. Landing any of these pitchers would set the team up for success.

Running Out of Time, Not Options

All this speculation will be moot, of course, if Hoyer’s hands are tied by Cubs ownership. This seems unlikely, though, given their willingness to steal Counsell from the Brewers. Although his time may be running out, Hoyer’s options are many.

Signing Soto, 26, a deal that could fetch $300 million or more due to his young age, may prove to be out of reach. In that case, signing a top-quality third baseman like Alex Bregman might be a good option. Bregman had a good but not great year in 2024 (26 HR/75 RBI/.768 OPS), which ought to bring down the sticker price.

That assumes the Cubs are in need of a big bat. There’s a ton of pitching talent in the free agent pool this offseason, something the Cubs farm system sorely lacks. That will have to be a priority if Hoyer expects the team to compete at a high level next season. Whether or not this is Hoyer’s do or bye season may come down to a simple win total. Maybe a pennant. Either way, the indications are that his time is running out.