The New York Jets got some reasons for optimism delivered this weekend,
The New York Jets have not put together a winning record in any season since 2015. Last season they won just five games, their lowest total since winning a mere two in the 2020 season. But the Jets received some encouraging news over the weekend that should give them cause for optimism — and they need any reason they can get to remain positive.
The NFL made public its “strength of schedule” rankings as calculated by Las Vegas oddsmaker Caesar’s Sportsbook.
While heading into last season, the Jets were handed a schedule that put them in the middle of the pack when it came to degree of difficulty, in a tie for 12th-most difficult schedule, this year the season should be somewhat smoother sailing for the Jets and their new quarterback, Justin Fields — playing for his third team since the Chicago Bears made him the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft.
According to the release, posted Friday on NFL social media accounts just five days in advance of the official NFL schedule unveiling on Wednesday, the Jets will play the seventh-easiest schedule of the 32 NFL teams in 2025.
How Strength of Schedule is Determined
The Caesar’s Sportsbook formula is a straightforward one. “Strength”is determined by simply calculating the aggregate won-loss percentages of all opponents based on their records in the previous season. Using that method, the Jets’ opponents in 2025 put together a winning percentage of .460 last year.
That sub-.500 record is helped along by the fact that the Jets like all teams play their own divisional opponents every season. In the AFC East, while the Buffalo Bills assembled an impressive 13-4 record, the New England Patriots finished 4-13 and the Miami Dolphins 8-9, a collective .490 won-loss percent for the Jets’ divisional opponents.
In inter-conference matchups, it is the Jets turn in 2025 to take on all four teams from the NFC South. That division was won last year by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 10-7 record, the only over-.500 mark among the quartet of teams. Collectively the Bucs, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons assembled a 28-40 record, or a winning percentage of only .412
Only the AFC South was worse, at .368. The Jets face one AFC South team, but it’s one who finished at 4-13, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
On the strength of schedule release from the NFL, the Jets’ stadium-mates at MetLife in East Rutherford, New Jersey, the New York Giants have the toughest schedule. Despite finishing with only three wins last year, the Giants drew opponents with a collective .574 winning percentage. The Chicago Bears who managed only five wins in 2024, look like they’ll have another rough go of it this year, facing opponents with a combined .571 winning percentage.
The easiest schedule on the 2025 slate belongs to the San Francisco 49ers, followed by the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots.
A More Accurate Way of Calculating Schedule Strength
Last week, football statistician Warren Sharp published his own strength of schedule rankings, which are based not on opponents’ winning percentages from last year — but on projected winning percentages from the upcoming season.
“Basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient,” Sharp explained in his article. “NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development. … In short, traditional strength of schedule doesn’t predict anything related to future success.”
In Sharp’s analysis, the Jets do not fare quite as well, with the 16th-easiest schedule rather than the seventh. The 49ers still have the easiest schedule, and the Giants the toughest, however.
What does it all mean?
“Teams that are predicted to have the easiest schedule are far more likely to finish with winning records,” according to Sharp, using his system. “Teams that are predicted to have the hardest schedules are far more likely to finish with losing records.”
