The race among a reported five MLB teams to sign superstar free agent outfielder Juan Soto is coming down to the wire. Soto’s decision is expected to come as early as Sunday. According to most sources, including the betting market oddsmakers, the most probable destinations for Soto are New York or Boston.
In New York, both the Yankees and Mets are rated as equally likely to land Soto. In fact, the odds posted by Bovada — an online sports betting site based in Costa Rica — have the Mets and Yankees as co-favorites in the Soto sweepstakes with odds of -125, meaning bettors would need to put up $125 to win $100. The Red Sox have the next-best odds at +250, meaning a bet of $100 would bring back a $250 profit.
But there may be one very important reason why Soto may “prefer” Boston. Not surprisingly, it involves money.
Soto Reported to ‘Prefer’ Signing With Red Sox
But on Friday morning a Boston baseball insider who hosts a sports talk program on local station WJDA there, reported that he had heard Soto “would prefer” Boston. Mario Pepén, who broadcasts to the Spanish-language market, added that Boston would need to match or top the best offer received by Soto from any other team.
According to the insider, however, the Red Sox are so serious about meeting that requirement and obtaining Soto’s services for 2025 and possibly for the rest of the 26-year-old’s career, that team owner John Henry is now directly involved in negotiations. Henry is trying to get the deal done with Scott Boras, Soto’s high-powered agent.
Pepén’s report has not been independently confirmed, meaning it remains in the category of rumor. According to Boston sports podcast host Matt Couture, Pepén’s report should be interpreted to mean that “Soto wants Boston but needs them to up their offer.”
As of Wednesday, the Red Sox’ offer to Soto was reported to top $600 million, but the consensus among MLB experts is now that $600 million won’t be enough.
Contract Total Could Reach $700 Million
“There are rumors of $700 million, if not more,” said ESPN baseball analyst Jorge Castillo in an interview on the network. “Makes sense. Soto’s combination of age — he’s still just 26 years old — and hitting ability hasn’t been seen in free agency since Alex Rodriguez in 2000.”
While many experts stop short of predicting that Soto’s contract will exceed the $700 million threshold, there seems little remaining doubt that the figure will land well beyond $600 million.
Money is where Boston may have an advantage over New York, and may be one big reason why Soto “would prefer” signing there. If Boston can come close to matching an offer from one of the New York teams, the state of Massachusetts has a significant tax advantage over New York for high earners — like Major League Baseball superstars.
Soto Takes Home More Cash in Boston Due to Tax Laws
Due to the “millionaire’s tax” law in Massachusetts passed in 2022, the state charges a 5 percent flat tax rate on all income up to $1 million, and then tacks on a 4 percent surtax for income exceeding $1 million.
In New York, the tax rate on higher incomes is 10.3 percent, with an additional 3.876 percent added for New York City residents. That’s a total of more than 14 percent in tax out of Soto’s New York paycheck, compared to approximately nine percent in Boston. Over the course of a contract exceeding $600 million, Soto could take home millions more in Boston than in New York with the same contract dollar figures.
