Just how aggressive was the Detroit Lions' play-calling in 2024?

Dan Campbell, beginning with his now-famous (or now-infamous depending on who you ask) introductory press conference as Head Coach of the Detroit Lions in 2021, emphasized tenacity, determination, and the importance of one team willing itself to victory over their opposition.

During their stint on the 2022 preseason edition of Hard Knocks, Campbell once again drilled down on what has become the core mantra of the team - grit. He defined it this way: "I think it means we'll go a little bit longer, we'll push a little harder, and we'll think a little deeper and a little sharper."

That foundational principle has spread from Campbell to the rest of his team, coaches and players alike. In the process, the team has turned around from a 3-13-1 record in his first year as HC, followed by a disastrous 1-6 start the following year. They've gone 35-9 in the regular season ever since that point, with two consecutive NFC North titles and an NFC Championship Game appearance to boot.

The Lions are now considered among the league's elite, and part of the process to get to that point has been the extreme level of channeled, focused aggression the team has shown on the field. That doesn't just apply to how well the team tackles, converges on the ball, or slings the ball downfield - though Detroit has certainly shown vast improvement in all of these areas.

Along with those, however, are plays that some coaches shy away from - 4th down conversions, 2pt conversions, trick or gadget plays, onside kicks (especially in the wake of the league's changes to how those are conducted), and blitzing. The Lions, notably, have been trend-setters in the league's recent push towards more high risk/ high reward decision making.

How aggressive was the Lions' play calling last season?

Last season alone, QB Jared Goff, in the middle of a record-setting "perfect game" against Seattle, caught a TD pass from star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. At least two offensive tackles have caught touchdown passes for the Lions during Campbell's tenure; Taylor Decker in 2022, also against Seattle, and beloved backup Dan Skipper in 2024 against Buffalo.

Against Tennessee last year, RB David Montgomery threw a TD to TE Sam LaPorta. Punter Jack Fox has several successful fake punts over the last few years. And the list goes on.

The team has gone so far into their bag of tricks since 2021, so often, that they've made their trickery feel commonplace - it's just another play to them. But it's not just the trick plays that have contributed to the team's recent surge to the top.

Older NFL fans might remember the name of Gregg Easterbrook, writer of the "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" column first for ESPN, then for other outlets. He advocated long and loud for teams to go for it on 4th down in order to win games, complete with metrics.

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Between the pair of them, Campbell and former OC Ben Johnson, now HC for the Chicago Bears, have perfectly emulated Easterbrook's ideal coaching strategy over the last few seasons.

Compiling stats from The Football Database, since the start of 2022, the Lions have the second-most 4th down attempts (110) and the second-most successful conversions (63). Only the Cleveland Browns had more of both. Detroit's overall conversion rate of 57.3% is 8th-best in the league, but none of the teams with a higher percentage had more than 90 attempts over that time, and most significantly fewer.

For all of that, it can be difficult to truly judge just how aggressive one team is compared to another. Differences in game states (how far a team is ahead/ behind, when a call is made, how predictable a play is, etc.) can contribute to a team seeming to be aggressive in the moment, but that eye test maynot tell the entire story.

Enter Rotowire. Recently, they compiled a Aggresion Z-score to rank just how aggressive each team compares to the rest of the league. They compiled stats on several types of plays they considered to be aggressive, then controlled for teams that were forced into "do or die" situations.

In a complete lack of surprise, the Lions topped Rotowire's list for 2024 with an Aggression Z-score of 4.73. For context for just how aggressive the Lions were, the second-place Commanders sat a full point lower at 3.73. The Jaguars, closest to "neutral" at 0.01, were in 13th place.

In their article, Rotowire wrote this about the Lions:

"The stats back up Dan Campbell's reputation as the NFL's most aggressive head coach. Whether it's going for it on fourth down, faking a punt from deep in their own territory or attempting an onside kick with 12 minutes left, the Lions are never afraid to roll the proverbial dice. A high-octane offense that led the NFL with 33.2 PPG helped Campbell's aggressiveness pay off more often than not in 2024, and Detroit's likely to stay atop this leaderboard in 2024, even after OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn both left to become head coaches elsewhere."

It also seems as if that level of aggression paid off for those teams willing to risk it. Eight of the fourteen teams to make the playoffs landed on the list with positive/ aggressive Z-scores. Beyond that, only two teams with a negative/ conservative Z-score made it out of the Wild Card round - Houston and Baltimore, both of whom faced teams with negative Z-scores.

To top it off, all four teams to make the AFCCG & NFCCG ranked in the top six most aggressive teams on Rotowire's list.

Campbell's approach to offensive play-calling has been, literally, a game-changer for the entire league, and it now appears as if teams must either follow suit, or get left in the dust. The only thing to be determined now is how well the Lions will adapt to the paradigm shift they initiated to begin with.