Developing young quarterbacks in the NFL is a fine art. Usually, there’s no time or resources available to truly put the effort and make the player take a leap, especially when other people initially drafted them.
The Green Bay Packers is certainly more of an exception. Jordan Love spent three years as Aaron Rodgers’ backup before taking the reins in 2023. Last year, the team traded for Malik Willis and immediately transformed a previously unwatchable quarterback into a viable backup.
So yes, it’s difficult to create an environment to develop quarterbacks with the proper endeavor, especially when other teams have already tried and failed. But if there is one franchise in the league capable of doing so, it’s the Packers.
Now enter Trey Lance into the conversation.
Four years ago, he was the third overall pick. Most draft analysts thought he was a better prospect than Jordan Love.
NFL.com, for instance, had Lance with a 6.47 prospect grade (will become good starter within two years), versus 6.36 (will eventually be plus starter) for Love.
The evidence of the past few seasons showed that Love is the better quarterback, and there’s no doubt about it. But at the same time, it doesn’t mean Trey Lance can’t be developed into a viable NFL quarterback. There’s a huge difference between being a rosterable player and an elite player. It’s ok at this point to say Lance won’t be the latter, but he can still be the former. And the Packers have the tools and the offensive coaching staff to do it.
History
Trey Lance had a unique path. Because of covid, he only started 17 college games—and it was in the FCS. In his rookie season in the NFL, he was a backup for Jimmy Garoppolo on the San Francisco 49ers. And when Lance was set to start in 2022, he suffered a serious injury and missed the job to Brock Purdy.
At that point, Kyle Shanahan was done with him. And it was as much on Shanahan as it was on Lance. While the 49ers head coach is a great offensive mind, patience is not exactly his calling card.
So he went to the Dallas Cowboys, but acquired for the wrong reasons. Jerry Jones didn’t want a developmental quarterback, he wanted leverage to negotiate Dak Prescott’s extension. Now that the deal is done, there’s no reason to keep Lance around.
"We took a shot at Trey and wanted to do that," Cowboys COO/executive vice president/director of player personnel Stephen Jones told The Dallas Morning News. "We think the world of Trey. But us having Dak (Prescott) signed up for the long-term, I think he's probably going to be looking for something different."
What he needs
There's one word that always came out of Mike McCarthy's mouth when discussing quarterback Trey Lance: Reps. And the former Packers head coach didn’t have those available in Dallas.
Everyone agrees that's what the (still!) young quarterback needs. Keep in mind, though Lance is going into his fifth year in the NFL, he's almost the same age as Bo Nix and Michael Penix, who were rookies in 2024. His passing attempt count dating back to his college football days remains extremely low.
The thing about Lance is that his arm talent and ability to run get you thinking of the upside. It's the mistakes that have cost him so far. In the Cowboys preseason finale this past season, he threw five interceptions, most of which were ugly: Completely missing a defender in a zone, or a late throw on an out route.
Lance needs live reps, and practice might not be enough. So the biggest question is how can someone give him those.
Even in a desperate-for-quarterbacks league like the NFL, chances are he won't be brought in by a franchise to compete for the starting role with so many unknowns surrounding his so-far strange career. So whoever bets on him will have to give him reps in the preseason and camp. If he fully develops into a starting-caliber QB, it'll likely be after a long and slow process.
The Packers don’t have Tom Clements anymore, but the team trusts new quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion to follow the same developmental profile.
Why the Packers are a good fit
Unlike other teams, the Packers do have time and patience to let him develop. This year, they have Jordan Love and Malik Willis under contract, so Lance would be a QB3 on the depth chart.
And you can see how Willis used his abilities to run the offense in 2024. Even though he barely had time to learn the system, the backup quarterback had strong performances starting against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. And was fine entering in relief of Love against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears. He’s probably not a bona fide starter, but Matt LaFleur took the most out of him so far.
The thing for the Packers is that Willis is entering the final year of his rookie deal. If he plays well again or even if he doesn’t play whatsoever in 2025, chances are that someone will give him a solid deal in free agency next offseason. And the Packers will need a new backup quarterback.
The projects with Sean Clifford and Michael Pratt failed. The proven concept is taking a clearly talented player, with a high upside, and putting him in the best possible situation.
At this stage, it’s impossible to know if Trey Lance will ever develop into a viable NFL quarterback. It’s unlikely that someone will give him so many live-game reps without assurances that he will be good. But if there’s someone who could make it happen, it’s the Packers. And for a low salary, it’s more sensible for them to make this bet than try to keep developing a limited third-string quarterback like Clifford.
