When we get towards the end of an NFL draft news cycle, we sometimes reach a narrative saturation point. Our brains begin to overflow from the sheer amount of speculation, and our takes can start to veer off the beaten path. It's part of the reason that teams spread intentional fibs during this "Lying Season" so often and effectively: a lot of people are willing to believe just about anything that sounds new right about now.
With all due respect to ESPN's Matt Miller, I believe the latest draft buzz he shared about the Titans on Thursday falls squarely into this bucket of April silliness. In his latest rumors article, Miller shared that Titans fans should "expect Tennessee to be aggressive in adding a wideout, possibly with a trade-up from No. 35 to target a player such as Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) or Luther Burden III (Missouri)."
Now, Miller is just sharing what he's heard here. He's doing his job as a draft insider, which I don't begrudge one bit. And in fairness, a lot of the statement is true.
The Wrong Kind of Aggressive
Yes, expect the Titans to be aggressive in adding a wideout. They will be! It's why they're far more likely to leave this draft with 2+ rookie receivers than 1 or fewer. They quite literally need the bodies, and they're absolutely going to take some swings.
And yes, they are actively interested in late 1st Round/early 2nd Round WR options such as Burden and Egbuka. They met with both at the Combine, and I reported on Thursday that they have a 30 visit scheduled with Burden next week.
Egbuka isn't somebody they're having on a 30 visit, but he's as squeaky clean as they come. So that isn't for lack of interest.
But this idea that the Titans are considering trading up from 35 is where we completely jump the shark. I don't think this is likely at all. I'm only willing to entertain it as a theoretical possibility because I could see a very specific situation where it becomes at least a consideration for Tennessee. Otherwise, I'll go ahead and plant my flag on this not being a thing.
Can you think of anything that sounds more antithetical to the front office's stated approach and goal? This is a regime that wants more swings of the bat, not less. It's a regime that values patience and good process. Trading up from 35 into the back of the 1st Round achieves none of those aims. Every bit of discussion this draft cycle so far has been about the Titans considering a trade back from the 1st or 35th pick, until now. Suddenly we're supposed to believe a trade in the opposite direction makes any sense for them?
For this to make sense in practice, it would really probably need to be Tetairoa McMillan or Matthew Golden falling into the late 20's. And even then, the Titans would need to think their guy is God's gift to football as compared to the rest of the top options. Because if those two are falling, Burden and Egbuka probably are too. So the opportunity cost of trading up at a steep price for their WR1, let's say, would need to somehow far out-weigh simply staying put and taking their WR3 or WR4.
And yet another caveat: this completely forgets the other position in consideration at pick 35 in the first place. This speaks to how we've lost the bigger picture itself.
Losing Sight Of The Big Picture
Earlier in the draft cycle, when things tend to be a bit more sober, it was understood in Titans' circles how stacked this EDGE class is in particular. It's a group that's very likely to contain some early Day 2 options who would probably be late-Day 1 options in other drafts. And as big a need as the Titans have at WR, they at least have one good player on the roster already in Calvin Ridley. At EDGE, it's a different story!
And so it seemed exceedingly likely that the 35th pick would either be an EDGE, a WR, or a trade back in hopes of addressing both spots with a high pick. And to be clear, I think that's still the case. But it's a lot closer to a 50/50 proposition than a sure thing that they select a receiver, which is what we seem to be collectively convincing ourselves. And a trade down for more picks remains significantly more likely than a trade up from 35.
Maybe they jump up one or two spots if they're simply in love with one guy falling down the board. I'd bet such a move would need to involve some kind of late round pick swap to maintain their total number of picks. Outside of that very specific scenario, you should continue to think about moving down from 35 instead of thinking about moving up from it.
