Ryan McDonagh is under contract to the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 2025-26 season. That much we can all agree on, right? That’s the good news. He’s going to be back in the blue and white for at least one more season, and if things work out the right way, at least a couple of more. How many more seasons, and for how much money is where things start to get a little murky.
The 36-year-old defenseman is finishing up the final season of a 7-year, $47.25 million contract that he signed back in the summer of 2018 as one of the final big contracts Steve Yzerman handed out before re-signing in September (Nikita Kucherov’s 8-year extension was the other one). McDonagh has more than lived up to that contract as the defensive backbone to two Stanley Cup-winning teams. After a brief two season sojourn in Nashville, McDonagh returned to the Lightning last season.
Look, we had our doubts as to if McDonagh was the same player he was when he left. As we wrote back when the trade happened,
“Not everything is sunshine and rainbows (as Rocky Balboa would say). There is the overwhelming possibility that the added miles and pucks off of the shin pads will catch up to McDonagh and his drop-off will be drastic and noticeable in the Lightning’s defensive system. It’s also possible that injuries start to add up for the veteran. After being an every day staple in the Lightning’s line-up, he did miss 19 games over two seasons with the Predators for various injuries. It’s not a lot, but it’s not a trend that is likely to reverse as he ages.”
Well, we’re happy to report that last year was not the year that added miles caught up to the Mack Truck. If anything, the return to Tampa revitalized him.
He teamed up with Erik Cernak (who else) and the duo posted a 1.60 GA/60 in 1004 minutes of 5v5 time together. That ranked 13th in the league for defensive pairs that spent at least 300 minutes of ice time together. For the record, the 1004 minutes together was 7th in the league for two blueline players spending time together in the league. The only other regular pairing for the Lightning that had a goals-against under 2.00 was the Victor Hedman/J.J. Moser pairing at 1.77 GA/60.
With McDonagh and Cernak up to their old tricks of handling the best the opposition had to throw against the Lightning, it freed up Hedman and Moser to play against more favorable match-ups and is one of the reasons those two were able to post a goals-for average of 3.18 per 60 minutes.
The Lightning were a better defensive team with McDonagh back in the line-up, and chances are that continues again this season considering the changes to the blueline will be minimal. Nick Perbix is out, and either Darren Raddysh is going to get a lot more ice time or Max Crozier is going to be a permanent member of the defensive corps. Yes, some bored hockey pundits might have speculated a McDonagh trade over the summer, but there aren’t many trades that make the Lightning better if they’re shipping out one of their best defensive defensemen. Unlike the last time they traded him, they aren’t external factors (no room under the salary cap) forcing them to deal him.
So, he’s staying this season and will hopefully play a lot of minutes. That’s all well and good, but what does it mean for the season after next? McDonagh wants to stay in Tampa. Julien BriseBois wants him to stay in Tampa. Fans who invested in a “27 McDonagh” jersey want him to stay in Tampa. Is there a scenario where he doesn’t?
Of course there is. We saw it happen with Steven Stamkos just a little over a year ago. In fact, a beloved veteran ending his career with an organization other than the one where everyone hoped they would retire with is more common than the other way around, especially in the salary cap world. Yes, Mr. BriseBois wants to keep McDonagh, but there is a limit to how much he’s willing to pay him to stay. If that limit is lower than what McDonagh thinks he can get to keep playing, well, then we have a Stamkos situation, don’t we?
The price of McDonagh’s services isn’t the only concern in the negotiations. In fact, it might not even be the most important one. The length of the contract is most likely to be top of mind for Mr. BriseBois and his staff. It’s also kind of unprecedented.
Rarely is there a defensemen of McDonagh’s type putting up strong defensive seasons on the other end of 35-years-old. Our crack research team took a look at last year’s numbers and a found a grand total of four defenseman aged 37 or older (McDonagh will be 37 when his new contract kicks in). Only two of those players (Brent Burns and Kris Letang) played more than 70 games. Burns and Jeff Petry were playing on one-year deals while Letang and Marc-Edouard Vlasic were still wrapped up in long-term deals.
Scrolling back a few more seasons and the trend is apparent. Defensemen over 35 are usually signed as depth players for short-term, low-cost contracts. That is not what McDonagh is going to sign for next season. If he was willing to take one of those deals, the Lightning would have signed him 25 days ago.
Ian Cole, who turns 37 next season, signed a one-year deal with an AAV of $3 million. Cole’s deal is a 35+ contract, which allows for some performance bonuses ($200,000 in his case) which drops the cap hit to $2.8 million. Since McDonagh is over 35, the Lightning could have some flexibility on how to sign him and protect themselves in the event he retires before the contract ends. As long as the contract isn’t front-loaded, or contains signing bonuses past the first season, the deal would be treated like a regular contract, and if he officially retires, the remaining years are wiped off of the books.
It’s unlikely he’ll sign a one-year deal like Cole did, nor should he be looking at the minimum. Based on last season’s numbers McDonagh seems to have plenty left in the tank. He played in all 82 games, something he’s only done twice before in his career, and he didn’t seem to be fading at the end of the season. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he can carry this type of play for another two seasons at least. Playing effectively into his age-40 season wouldn’t be a shock to anyone.
The Bolts committed four years at $8 million per to Victor Hedman. That seems a little steep for McDonagh. Yes, he’s a better defender than the Lightning’s captain, but finding 60+ points from the blueline is a lot harder in today’s NHL.
With absolutely no knowledge into the situation, and with little history to guide us, it feels like a “good” extension for McDonagh would be three-years with a cap hit between $5-$6 million. How much of that is deferred or in performance/signing bonuses is up to the negotiators. With the cap expected to keep rising over the next three seasons, even if McDonagh slips a bit in effectiveness and ice time, it’s not a contract that would handcuff the Lightning during its tenure.
If the Lightning have to go over the $6 million mark to keep the deal shorter, that’s not the end of the world. While some decisions do have to be made next summer as Oliver Bjorkstrand will be an unrestricted free agent and Moser will be a restricted free agent, the Bolts are projected to have about $22 million in cap space. So there is a little wriggle room. In McDonagh’s case, keeping deal under five years is more important than keep it under a certain dollar threshold.
While it doesn’t sound like either side is in any type of hurray to sign a deal this summer, it might not be a bad idea to get it done before July 1st when the new CBA rules kick in. From the Lightning’s perspective, being able to defer money to lower the cap hit is a benefit that will go away with the new agreement. For McDonagh, the rules pertaining to the percentage of money that can be paid via signing bonuses are going to change, so if he wants up front money, there could be an incentive to sign an extension at some point during the season.
We’re not quite in crises mode just yet in regards to his contract. The Lightning aren’t necessarily wrong to take a wait-and-watch approach to it either. If there is a noticible drop off in his play early in the season, or Moser takes a big step forward, management might decide to let him walk next summer. There is the danger that they can’t come to an agreement and he walks in free agency, but that’s part of the fun in being a general manager, right?
