If the Lightning’s path back to the Stanley Cup Final now goes through the Panthers, it might not look like they’ve done enough this offseason to topple their cross-state rival.
This was an interesting free agency season. Many of the top players available came off the board before July 1. A sign-and-trade deal sent Mitch Marner from Toronto to Vegas. Brock Boeser stayed in Vancouver. And the Panthers were able to secure all three of their big-ticket, pending unrestricted free agents — Conn Smythe-winning center Sam Bennett, forward Brad Marchand and defenseman Aaron Ekblad.
So, when the clock hit noon on Tuesday, the moves were plentiful but mostly unspectacular.
In the meantime, the Lightning moves were — at least on paper — unremarkable.
Outside of re-signing top restricted free agent Gage Goncalves to a two-year, $1.2-million average annual value deal, Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois’ only one-way contract was with former Maple Leafs forward Pontus Holmberg, a restricted free agent who didn’t receive a qualifying offer from Toronto and thus became a free agent. The Lightning inked a two-year, $1.55-million AAV deal with Holmberg.
BriseBois signed another restricted free agent who did not receive a qualifying offer in former first-round pick Jakob Pelletier. The 24-year-old forward signed a three-year contract that is a two-way deal for next season before becoming a one-way contract after that.
It might look like the Lightning were feeding on scraps. But through the qualifying-offer process, players sometimes slip away from their teams because they can’t afford what their potential raises could be through the arbitration process. Any player who received an award under $4.85 million by an arbitrator must be honored. Clearly, in both situations, the team and the player were far enough apart for the team to believe it would be on the hook for a raise it might not be able to handle.
Holmberg projects to replace Luke Glendening as the Lightning’s fourth-line center, but BriseBois said he believes Holmberg has the ability to play up and down the lineup, and he did get some second-line shifts during the playoffs. Holmberg is another player who goes into the hard areas, can be a pest, is “feisty” and can draw penalties, the GM said.
BriseBois said Pelletier was one of the top players at every rank he played before a shoulder injury sustained in his second pro season slowed his progress. The Lightning see untapped potential there as well.
BriseBois said the Lightning anticipated that a lot of players might remain with their teams on July 1 (thanks to the growing salary cap increases), and the Lightning had that in mind several month ago when they traded for Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, adding two top-nine forwards to their mix. Last month, they signed Gourde to a six-year extension.
“Usually those (deals), come free agency, end up being the best contracts, because when players re-sign with their own team, there’s just less risk for everyone involved,” BriseBois said. “The team knows exactly who the player is, how he fits in, how to use them, what they can expect of him going forward, so there’s less risk.
" The player knows, ‘Hey, I’m in a situation I like. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be considering re-signing here. I like my teammates. I like how I’m being used. I like the opportunity going forward, because I understand it. I know it. I don’t have to disrupt my life.’ And usually that ends up being a contract that will come in at a little lower cap hit than a player that hits the market.”
The Lightning don’t necessarily have to be bigger to be tougher to play against. They need to be relentless on the puck and hard in the corners. They need to have better forward depth that allows them to roll lines with the kind of pace that can wear down opponents, particularly in a playoff series. Whether they’ve done that so far remains to be seen. But championships aren’t won in July; they’re won in April, May and June. Now, the Lightning have some cap space to play with going into the season and, more importantly, at next season’s trade deadline.
Right now, it’s better to wait. More teams see themselves as either contenders or not far away from making a run. A lot more teams have been in the mix for playoff spots late in the season, so they’re keeping their players and less willing to trade NHL players for prospects or draft picks. That could be a main factor in the Lightning not yet trading the rights to former first-round pick Isaac Howard.
“Everyone is trying to get better right now,” BriseBois said. “There are very few teams that are looking at trading established NHL players or good young NHL players unless they’re getting an equivalent player back. And we like our players, we like their contracts, we like where they fit in our organization. We like our team. So, we would be bringing in someone and creating a new hole. So, that’s why we haven’t been very active.”
Ultimately, if you’re not trying to keep your own players on team-friendly deals, it’s not a great buyer’s market. The salary cap will go up $7.5 million this season and increase $25.5 million over the next three years. Rosters aren’t expanding, so in free agency there’s less supply and more demand, which will lead to inflated contracts.
Combine that with more teams trying to chase playoff spots, and maybe it was good that the Lightning made their big offseason splash last season by acquiring forward Jake Guentzel.
“Everyone is kind of looking to move up in the standings,” BriseBois said. “Whereas in the last few years, probably for the last decade, with different teams at different times, there was a number of teams that were going, ‘This isn’t our time. We need to take a step back, live with some short-term pain for long-term gain.’ And those teams were willing to trade away good players. That’s how we got some of them for futures.”
So maybe the Lightning are thinking ahead again, waiting in the weeds with cap space in hand for the season to play out, waiting for the real contenders to emerge so they can bulk up for the postseason when all of the buyers today become sellers at the trade deadline.
So, before you scoff at the Lightning’s quiet offseason, just know there is a plan.
