The Tampa Bay Lightning are in an odd paradox. They’re one of the top-scoring teams in the NHL, yet they’re in need of scoring depth.
On Monday morning, general manager Julien BriseBois brought forward the following statistics. These stats were provided by Lightning beat writer and team manager of media relations Benjamin Pierce. The stats in parenthesis were added by me alongside the presented stats to provide further context.
“You don’t have these strong statistical numbers, underlying numbers, especially the goal differential unless you are a very good hockey team made up of very good hockey players that are very well coached,” BriseBois said in regards to these stats.
There’s no argument there. The Lightning are a good team and therefore are in the top third of the NHL in key stats as a result.
BriseBois has attributed the Lightning’s current spot in the standings – 26-19-3 in the second wild card spot – to some bad luck.
“This year, when we lose most of the time we’re leaving the rink thinking we did a lot of good things, probably enough good things,” BriseBois said regarding the team’s record. “Tonight we played well enough to win, or at the very least, could have won or, worst case, it’s a game that could have gone either way, and it didn’t go our way. So I think if we continue to play this way, we’re in line for some positive regression in the second half of the season.”
Over the course of a season, luck has probably come into play when the Lightning have lost some games. Costly fluke goals happen. But it goes deeper than that. They’re still a team that has some flaws that could and need to be addressed.
The Kucherov Effect Is Very Real
While the Lightning have some games in hand, they’re currently clinging to a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. Before last season, that wouldn’t have been an issue regardless of how many games everyone had played. In previous years, the team was less reliant on a handful of players to produce.
It’s not that much of a hyperbole to say that it just takes Nikita Kucherov having an off night to lose a game. In games where he doesn’t get on the scoresheet, the Lightning are 2-5-0, and they’ve lost the last five. Arguably, it takes him having a big night for them to win. In the 19 games in which he has registered a single point, the Lightning are 7-10-2.
The issues become glaring very quickly when you break it all down.
If they want to keep having Kucherov lend a hand throughout the top six, that’s fine. It works well enough. But something needs to be done for the other half of the lineup. Kucherov already averages 21:39 of ice time per game. Sure, the stars are usually playing one-third of the game. He’s not being stretched any thinner than Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon. But the point is there’s a whole two-thirds of the game where he’s not out there and there are other teammates who need the help.
Prioritize Offense at the Deadline
So, up to this point, I’ve addressed all but two points made by BriseBois: The improvement that could be made on defense. Being 10th in goals allowed isn’t exactly spectacular and the penalty kill, while improving, can always use more assistance.
Well, there is an in-house solution. Defenseman JJ Moser has been out since mid-December with a lower-body injury. He’s expected to miss between eight and 10 weeks. So far, he’s been out for about five weeks. The Lightning will likely get back one of their best defensemen before the deadline even arrives. Once he’s back, the difference will be felt.
But they don’t have that same luxury for the offense. They have some promising talent such as Conor Geekie and Dylan Duke, but they aren’t ready. Geekie has six goals and six assists for 12 points in 46 games. That’s solid for a rookie trying to find his footing in the league, but it’s not going to help a team in the playoff push. Meanwhile, Duke is averaging under a point per game with the Syracuse Crunch. He’s also not ready.
The solution has to come from outside.
Of course, the Lightning will have to be smart about it. No one wants to see them repeat the mistake of the Tanner Jeannot trade. Something similar to how they went about acquiring Anthony Duclair would be great. That move took a prospect and a third-round pick.
A specific trade won’t be crafted here, but looking at a similar one from last season gives an idea of what can work. Yes, Duclair was not a bottom-six guy with the Lightning after the deadline. However, if they can get a top-six addition in that fashion, it shouldn’t cost much to acquire impactful bottom-six depth.
So, there’s time to correct the paradoxical situation the Lightning are in. While they could see an improvement over time in a trend, any addition is only going to help make that improvement greater.
