The Lightning need to address this flaw before the postseason.
The race for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs is heating up as the regular season draws to an end. Teams such as the Washington Capitals have clinched a playoff spot already. However, other spots remain up for grabs. That is a bit of an illusion, though. Though many spots are open, teams such as the Tampa Bay Lightning are near-locks for a postseason spot in 2025.
The Lightning were the league's model franchise in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Tampa Bay has gone to four Stanley Cup Finals from 2015 to 2022. Three of these appearances were done consecutively from 2020 to 2022. The Lightning won the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021 while they lost their Final appearances in 2015 and 2022.
Over the last two postseasons, though, Tampa has had less than glamorous postseason runs. In fact, they were eliminated in the first round in both 2023 and 2024. They lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2023, while the Florida Panthers defeated them in 2024.
The Lightning hope they can change their fortunes in 2025. And it certainly seems as if they have the ability to do so. Tampa Bay is one of the favorites to make the Stanley Cup Final out of the Eastern Conference. There are very few weaknesses in their game, as well.
In saying this, no team is perfect. And the Lightning are certainly no exception. With this in mind, let's take a look at one fatal flaw that could sink Tampa Bay during the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Lightning could see 5v5 offense decline
The Lightning have some incredible offensive talent on their roster. Brayden Point is always a force to be reckoned with in the offensive zone. Jake Guentzel joined the Lightning in the offseason, and he's having success with Tampa so far. And you cannot forget about Nikita Kucherov.
Given this sort of talent, it's no surprise to learn that Tampa Bay is one of the best offensive teams in the league. They have the second-highest Goals For Per 60 Minutes in the NHL at all strengths, according to Evolving Hockey. Moreover, they have the third-highest Goals For Percentage and the third-highest shooting percentage in the league.
However, there is some evidence to suggest they may be overperforming in one key area. The team's scoring at 5v5 may be a bit deceptive. At 5v5, they have the fifth-highest Goals For Per 60 Minutes in the NHL. Moreover, they have the fourth-highest Goals For Percentage and the sixth-highest shooting percentage in the league.
Looking beneath the surface shows these numbers could be a bit inflated. Tampa Bay has the 11th highest Goals For Percentage in the league at 5v5. Additionally, they rank 15th in the NHL for Expected Goals Per 60 Minutes.
These aren't the worst numbers by any means. However, they do show that the Lightning could experience a decline in full-strength offensive production. This could be a major hindrance, especially in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The games are going to be extremely tight defensively, so scoring goals when both teams have five on the ice is important.
This is, of course, a worse-case scenario. The Lightning have the talent to keep up their offensive production, even if the chances they convert aren't the most pristine scoring chances. It wouldn't be too surprising to see Tampa Bay have no issues scoring at full strength.
The numbers are still a bit intriguing, though. And if the worst-case scenario comes to pass, the Lightning may have trouble against defensively sound teams like the Panthers. It's not the most egregious flaw, but it could still have a major impact on Tampa's Stanley Cup hopes.
