While the Tampa Bay Lightning looked disjointed in the early stages of their comeback win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday night, the team dominated puck possession and drove the play at five-on-five. One of Tampa Bay’s top performers, Darren Raddysh, registered two assists in the third period and ranked second in five-on-five on-ice expected goals share at 85.78% (xGF%) via NaturalStatTrick.
With another solid performance from Raddysh, who’s been in and out of the lineup to start the campaign, Head Coach Jon Cooper must make the 28-year-old a full-time roster player. That said, the Lightning could maximize their blue line even further by playing two right-handed defensemen on the same pairing.
Darren Raddysh Deserves Full-Time Role on Lightning Blue Line
Riding a three-game point streak, Raddysh continues to be productive, with a goal and four assists in ten games. Last season, Raddysh broke out as a serviceable partner for Victor Hedman. However, that role is now filled by 24-year-old J.J. Moser. Nevertheless, Raddysh had solid numbers in his first complete NHL season, with six goals and 33 points in 82 games in 2023-24, including a five-assist performance against the Philadelphia Flyers in March.
While Raddysh played against weaker competition, he posted stellar defensive results despite receiving poor goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson last season. He allowed just 2.45 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), which ranked third amongst Lightning defenders. In his ten-game sample with the Lightning this season, he is replicating that level of play. He’s allowed just 2.15 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) while also controlling 50.13% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%). He deserves the right-side role on the third pairing, but who is his ideal partner?
Lightning Should Try Nick Perbix on the Opposite Side
While his path to the NHL wasn’t easy, Nick Perbix has become a capable defenseman best suited for bottom-pairing minutes. He’s not afraid to play a high-risk, high-reward game and loves to join the rush. Perbix fits the mold of players like Erik Gustafsson, Tony DeAngelo, and Damon Severson, who all have a valuable offensive skill set but can make those one or two bold, costly mistakes that prevent them from being deployed to their maximum potential by coaches. They can look good in a top-pairing role for a short period but are best suited for second or third-pairing minutes long-term.
Perbix looked phenomenal in his rookie season as Hedman’s partner but struggled to replicate that level of play last season. In 13 games this season, he has a goal and three assists. The Lightning have relied on Perbix to play a more defensively responsible role with Emil Lilleberg on the bottom pairing, but this strategy isn’t maximizing Perbix’s skill set. While the pairing has suppressed scoring chances, they are an offensive black hole. This low-event pairing isn’t the ideal environment for Perbix, so an opportunity with a player like Raddysh may open up opportunities offensively.
Perbix’s kryptonite is his defensive zone retrievals and breakouts. He often fails to retrieve loose pucks on a dump-in against, then fails to break the puck out of the defensive zone. His successful retrieval percentage of 76% ranks sixth amongst Lightning defenders in my microstats dataset (five tracked games). Furthermore, he’s the least successful on zone exits, with just a 54.55% success rate. On the other hand, Raddysh leads the blue line in successful exit percentage at 76.92%. He is solid enough defensively for Perbix to join the offense, but he can also assist Perbix on the breakouts.
While Good Defensively, Emil Lilleberg Might Not Be the Answer
Despite the young Lilleberg being a solid, physical defensive presence, the Lightning have six better defensemen. Lilleberg is best suited as the seventh defenseman in case of an injury. He ranks last in defensive zone retrieval percentage at 70% this season. Furthermore, he faces the most carry-ins against on zone entries at a whopping 64%. Nearly two of three zone entries he faces are carry-ins, which have proven to lead to higher-quality scoring chances. His zone entry denial percentage of 10.71% also ranks last on the Lightning blue line. Due to his struggles to break out and defend the rush, Lilleberg is not the ideal partner for Perbix.
While having two right-handed defensemen on the same pairing isn’t ideal, the Lightning should give it a shot for an improved two-way presence on their bottom defense pair. Pairing Raddysh and Perbix together might also help the bottom six offensively since depth scoring remains a team weakness this season.
