To nobody’s surprise, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s offensive unit looks one of the best in the NHL to open the 2024-25 season. While the team has received production as usual from their top guys, there has been a plethora of complementary scoring to aid the offensive attack for the Bolts. Players like Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul have stepped up, outplaying their contracts on a cap-strapped Lightning team.
However, the player who has been most impressive on the offensive front was involved in numerous trade rumors over the summer. The Lightning were running low on cap space, and one possible solution was to move on from Anthony Cirelli’s $6.25 million cap hit to acquire some prospects and draft capital for the future. The two-way center’s production appeared to have plateaued around the 40-45 point mark, and other players in the lineup could fill his offensive role at a discounted price. Holding onto Cirelli was the correct choice for general manager Julien BriseBois, and he is off to the best start of his career this season.
The Numbers Behind Cirelli’s Dominant Offensive Start
The two-time Stanley Cup champion set a career-high in goals and points during the 2023-24 season, eclipsing the 20-goal mark for the first time. A career-best of 45 points is slightly underwhelming for a center paid north of $6 million, but there’s a solid chance Cirelli shatters his previous best totals this season. The Canadian center has a goal and seven assists for eight points in six games to start the season for Tampa Bay.
Furthermore, he’s continued to dominate the game at both ends of the ice at 5-on-5, not sacrificing his elite defensive abilities to produce on offense. Cirelli is tied for seventh in 5-on-5 points to start this season, up there with the rest of his line in Hagel and Paul. They have been the most possession-dominant lines across the NHL this season. Individually, Cirelli has controlled 70.55% of the on-ice expected goals share (xGF%) at 5-on-5, which ranks tenth in the NHL amongst forwards (via Natural Stat Trick).
More importantly, Cirelli is controlling the high-danger areas of the ice well. The Lightning have produced 23 high-danger shot attempts (HDCF) while surrendering just six when he is on the ice. Furthermore, they have outscored opponents 5-2 in high-danger areas with Cirelli over the boards. What can we expect from the Lightning’s two-way stud for the remainder of the season?
Moving Forward for Cirelli and the Lightning
Over the summer, I predicted Cirelli to finish around the 25-goal, 30-assist, and 55-point mark across an 82-game season. Unlike many, I thought his offensive production had another level with the addition of Jake Guentzel to improve the 5-on-5 offense. Furthermore, this signing paved the way for Cirelli to spend the entire season alongside one of the NHL’s best 5-on-5 wingers in Hagel. The two developed serious chemistry last season, and when Hagel jumped to the top line, Steven Stamkos dropped to the second line to play with Cirelli. However, Stamkos is no longer an elite 5-on-5 offensive player in a top-six role at this stage in his career, which hurt Cirelli’s offensive production.
A player archetype like Cirelli’s doesn’t drive a line offensively. After all, he earned the big bucks for his ability in the defensive zone, being amongst the elite defensive forwards in the league for over half a decade. In addition, if Hagel were to get an opportunity on the top line, Cirelli would still play with a perennial 5-on-5 goal scorer in Guentzel. In other words, he has a supporting cast of players that complement his play style everywhere compared to last season. Truthfully, he won’t continue this pace of play forever, but the 60-point mark isn’t out of reach with how good the Lightning’s second line has looked so far this season.
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