The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the thick of the Atlantic Division race. At this time last year, they trailed the division lead by 12 points, and that cushion held up the rest of the season. They finished with 98 points and landed in the first wild-card spot.
This season, they’re tied for second place with the Florida Panthers with 91 points and trail the Toronto Maple Leafs by just three points for first. Based on points percentage, at this pace, they’ll finish with 102 points. They’re in a good spot to catch up, but it will be a fight to the finish. Nearly every opponent left on the docket has something to play for. The one that doesn’t still gave the Lightning a hard time recently. Here’s a look at the Lightning’s path to the division title.
Teams Also Pushing for Atlantic Title
The Lightning still have to face the Maple Leafs and Panthers, the two teams in their way of a division crown. Toronto has been a headache for Jon Cooper and his squad recently. They are one of two teams that the Lightning are winless against this season (0-3-0). It’s the difference that’s pushed the Maple Leafs ahead. Being swept in the regular-season series might end any hope.
The rivalry between the Lightning and the Panthers is in full swing, with three recent bouts in the playoffs that sent the winner to the Stanley Cup Final each time, winning the Cup on two occasions. The Panthers hold a 2-1-0 advantage in 2024-25. A split would give the Lightning some tiebreakers – if not for the division, at least for home ice.
Teams in Playoff Contention (or that Give the Lightning Trouble)
The Lightning face the New York Islanders on Tuesday night, with 74 points on the season. They’re fighting for a playoff spot and are the farthest from reaching that goal. They’re tied with the Detroit Red Wings, but they don’t hold the tiebreaker, so while they’re tied in points, the Isles are behind them in the standings. The Lightning are 1-0-1 against the Islanders this season. They lost 3-2 in overtime on Feb. 1 and then won 5-3 on Saturday.
Next is the Ottawa Senators on April 3. The Senators are in the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference with 84 points. They have a seven-point cushion over the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers, but they’ll try to keep that cushion. The Lightning are 2-1-0 against the Senators this season. They lost a 5-4 road game on Oct. 19 and won back-to-back home games, 4-3 and 5-1, in early February. This matchup is also a potential playoff preview. If the Lightning win the division, they will play the Senators in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Lightning face the Buffalo Sabres twice in April – April 5 in Buffalo and April 13 in Tampa Bay. The last time the two faced off was in Florida on March 6. After falling behind 5-3, the Lightning clawed their way back to win 6-5. The Sabres are last in the Eastern Conference. They’re essentially out of contention. However, Tampa Bay will want to win this game. They don’t want to be stuck in a trap game. Last season, the Lightning lost the regular-season series 1-1-2.
They also have two remaining games against the Rangers, both at Madison Square Garden on April 7 and April 17 in the final game of the regular season. The Lightning won the previous bout in late December, when the Rangers were in a very different place, playing below .500 with key players all slumping at the same time. They’ve picked up the pace since then and are tied with the Canadiens for the final wild-card spot. MSG has been brutal territory for the Lightning lately. They haven’t won a game there since Feb. 27, 2019. They’ll have to break that curse to win the division.
Former Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman might finally get his Red Wings into the playoffs. They’re tied in points with the Islanders at 74. Detroit is looking for its first postseason appearance since its 25-season playoff streak was snapped in 2016-17. The Lightning are 2-1-0 against them this season. They aren’t at risk of falling behind them in the standings, but they’ll need to throw another wrench in Detroit’s playoff hopes if they want to win the Atlantic.
It’s a tough journey ahead, yet it’s doable. It’s been nearly six seasons since the Lightning’s last division title. Greater things than a division title have come since then, but snapping this drought would make for a good indicator that they’re not done competing. It could also set them up for a more favorable matchup that puts them on a path to another deep playoff run. Those reasons alone make for a nice incentive to make the push.
