During his introductory press conference in January of 2021, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell drew ire for metaphorically talking about biting knee caps. But that quotable bit, taken in context of everything he said, was an attempt to set a tone. These would not be the "Same Old Lions", and he would lead the way with an aggressive mindset.
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Right on cue, the Lions set a new NFL single-season record for fourth-down attempts with 41 in 2021. That number dropped to 37 in 2022, then went back up to 40 in 2023. Last season, the Lions' 33 fourth-down attempts were the third-most in the league.
The 151 times the Lions have gone for it on fourth down during Campbell's four seasons are the most in the league over that span, of course, and according to Larry Lage of the Associated Press that's the most fourth-down attempts over any four-season span in the NFL since at least 1991.
As Campbell has been more selective with his fourth-down aggressiveness, the Lions' success rate has improved over time, and analytics continually back up the approach. Criticism of that aggressiveness will never go away, but Campbell has made it clear he won't change.
Lions' all-time do-over was a rare turn for Dan Campbell
The poster child for Campbell's fourth-down aggressiveness, and how it can bite you when it doesn't work out, is the second half of the 2023 NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers.
Analytics were not against going for it on both of the big failed second-half fourth-down attempts in that game. If wide receiver Josh Reynolds doesn't drop at least one of those passes, the Lions might have gone to the Super Bowl instead of blowing a 24-7 halftime lead. Having a kicker he trusted outdoors from certain distances may have also changed Campbell's thinking.
Having one or both of those failed fourth downs go the other direction in the second half of the biggest game so far in franchise history could easily go down as the biggest "do-over" the Lions would want. But Bryan DeArdo of CBS Sports took it toward earlier in that game against the 49ers to tab the biggest do-over in Lions' history.
"Ahead 21-7 and with the ball inside the 49ers' 10-yard-line, the Lions had a chance to build a lead that likely would have been insurmountable. But surprisingly, the Lions got conservative. They called a running play and a short pass play before settling for a short field goal and a 24-7 lead at intermission."
"Prior to going conservative, the Lions did go for the jugular. But Jared Goff misfired on a potential touchdown pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Either way, had the Lions gotten a touchdown, the second half may have played out differently."
The incomplete pass DeArdo mentioned was followed by a one-yard run by Jahmyr Gibbs and a three-yard reception by Gibbs. Timeouts after each play left 10 seconds for Michael Badgley's 21-yard field goal to give the Lions a 24-7 halftime lead. It was all downhill from there, as the 49ers would score 27 unanswered points in the second half and hang on for a 34-31 win.
Going into halftime with a 21-point lead may have made the second half of the 2023 NFC Championship Game a coronation for the Lions on their way to the first Super Bowl in franchise history.
A turn toward playing it safe late in the first half was a turn Campbell does not usually take, and coincidentally or not, the Lions' momentum went away quickly. With that in mind, Campbell certainly learned not to deviate from the tone he always sets for his team.
