Lions Mailbag: Is pressure the reason for Jared Goff’s early struggles?

While we work through some technical difficulties to get this week’s Midweek Mailbag off the ground, I figured this was a good opportunity to get a head start on our written Detroit Lions mailbag.

This week, I only picked a handful of questions but opted to go very deep in my research into Jared Goff’s early struggles, the Lions’ game plan against the Buccaneers, and some upcoming extensions.

Let’s get into it:

From NJVW1 on Twitter:

Is it just me, or does it feel like Goff hasn’t had a lot of time in the pocket this year? I get he has been his worse version of himself, but feels like he has to get the ball out faster than I am used to. Best OLine in the NFL? Doesn’t feel like it currently

That was kind of my impression watching the game back on film, but, interestingly, the statistics don’t seem to support this.

Per PFF, Goff was pressured on 35.0% of his dropbacks last year. That number is actually slightly down to 32.2% through two games this season. His overall time to throw is also not significantly different. Per NFL Pro, he was getting rid of the ball on an average of 2.72 last year, it’s 2.68 this year.

Where I did find a little difference is where the pressure is coming from. In short, the Lions’ interior offensive line isn’t holding up their end of the bargain thus far. Last year, Graham Glasgow allowed an average of 2.4 pressures per game (per PFF). That’s up to 4.0 per game through two. Frank Ragnow is up to 3.0 pressures per game after allowing just 1.3 last year. Kevin Zeitler has actually been holding up just fine, only allowing 1.5 pressures per game, while Jonah Jackson allowed 1.9 last year for Detroit.

But here’s the more interesting thing I found out. We know Goff is not great under pressure. He’s always been one of the worst quarterbacks when under duress. However, the past couple years, he’s been nearly unbeatable when given a clean pocket. Unfortunately, that’s where we see the biggest difference in Goff’s output through two weeks.

First, let’s look at his statistics under pressure (per PFF):

Last year: 112-of-225, 1360 yards, 6 TDs, 9 INTs, 61.0 passer rating, 5.4% turnover worthy plays, 48.2 PFF grade

This year: 15-of-25, 163 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 59.2 passer rating, 3.3% TWP, 40.6 PFF grade

More stats here via NFL Pro:

Note: CPOE = completion percentage over expected, EPA = expected points added

Last year: -2.3% CPOE (25th), -0.37 EPA per dropback (15th)
This year: -0.3% CPOE (17th), -0.41 EPA per dropback (17th)

Goff has basically been the same quarterback he has always been under pressure: below average. And it doesn’t appear that he’s under any more pressure than normal.

But from a clean pocket, he’s been drastically worse:

Via PFF:

Last year: 372-of-491, 4,051 yards, 28 TDs, 3 INTs, 116.1 passer rating, 0.8% TWP, 94.5 PFF grade

This year: 37-of-58, 361 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 74.0 passer rating, 4.8% TWP, 49.0 PFF grade

Via NFL Pro:

Last year: +2.7% CPOE (8th), +0.31 EPA per dropback (4th)
This year: -6.5% CPOE (23rd), -0.06 EPA per dropback (27th)

His PFF score has dropped over 45 points this season, and his completion percentage over expected has gone from top 10 to bottom 10.

So why has Goff transformed into a poor quarterback without pressure? That question is infinitely harder to answer, but both Goff and Campbell said the Buccaneers did a good job of simply mixing up their coverages all game.

“They do change up their coverage a little bit, which we knew they would,” Campbell said of Detroit’s red zone struggles. “They do a good job, there’s a few things they hang their hat on. They played one particular coverage and really pushed out to the flats on some things, and they buzz pretty hard under some routes. And so we just never felt real comfortable.”

Ultimately, there’s no reason to believe these struggles will necessarily continue. For his entire career, Goff has been one of the best quarterbacks with a healthy pocket, and that should continue. Although, it’s worth keeping an eye on that interior offensive line.

I’m going to assume your phone was temporarily possessed by an autocorrecting Hank Hill and you meant “prepare.” Ever since getting caught off guard by Duce Staley, I’ve tried to be much more prepared with a question, even if I don’t necessarily have something pressing. Recently, Justin Rogers of Detroit Football Network offered a good piece of advice I’m trying to follow, which is write down at least one question ahead of time for every position, and cross them off as questions are asked. That way, if the presser is losing momentum, I can keep the conversation going.

So, yes, most questions are prepared for either story ideas I have or pressing news that needs to be answered. But a good reporter will also find stories developing from answers in those press conferences and often ask follow-ups. Usually, you want to give the initial question asker a chance at a follow-up, but if they don’t ask one, I’ll sometimes jump in to follow up.

Without a doubt, Rogers and Dave Birkett get the most questions in, which makes sense considering how long each has been doing this.

Why the Lions didn’t re-sign Josh Reynolds will always be a bit of a mystery to me. Detroit made it very clear—and public—that they wanted him back. Reynolds’ contract with the Denver Broncos (two years, $9 million) was very affordable, even before Detroit had maneuvered the cap with extensions for Jared Goff, Penei Sewell, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Maybe they truly believed in Antoine Green or Donovan Peoples-Jones. Maybe it was more of an issue with Reynolds’ camp.

What I will say, though, is that I don’t think we’re going to be looking back at this decision as a huge error in a couple months. I think this team really likes Tim Patrick, and they’re getting him at a very discounted rate. Were they a bit fortunate to have him fall in their laps? Sure. But Patrick was just one of many options Detroit had on the market. Perhaps it was the abundance of WR-X options out there that made Holmes change course.

Alim McNeill is their next priority, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. McNeill may not have the flashy sack or pressure numbers of other defenders, but he’s been continually disruptive while he remains a key cog in their run defense—which is fundamental to what this defense wants to be. Yes, he’s likely to come with a price tag at or over $20 million a year given the going rates for defensive tackles, but I think Detroit believes he’s worth it.

Does that mean they’ll have to part ways with the other players? Hard to say.

Derrick Barnes is an interesting case because his ability to play the difficult SAM linebacker role has allowed them to stay in base defense more than they have in any other year under Aaron Glenn. They’ve yet to utilize a third safety for a single snap, and nickel corner Amik Robertson has played just 54 of 126 defensive snaps (43%). That’s all to say that Barnes is important to what they want to do.

His level of play, though, has been up and down. He’s continued to play well in the run game and in coverage, but his pass rush is still coming along slowly. He only has a single pressure in 28 pass rushing snaps.

Barnes strikes me as a player who will be valued in Detroit more so than any other team, and that may mean they let him test the market to see what others think about his value. They did that with John Cominsky and he came back. They did it with Jamaal Williams and he was gone. It could go either way with Barnes.

I’m holding off everything on Onwuzurike for the time being. It’s been a hell of a start for the fourth-year defensive lineman, but he’s going to need to keep it up before we begin the extension conversation.

Just going to answer the first question to keep this short.

2 reasons: It’s what worked in the past, and the Bucs run defense is notoriously stout.

In the NFC Divisional Round against the Bucs, Jared Goff threw the ball 22 times in the first half to just 12 rushes in the second half. Detroit was largely unsuccessful in the run in the first half of that game, earning just 39 yards on 3.3 a carry. In the second half, the run game thrived. Eliminating the kneeldowns, the Lions rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries.

Like Detroit, Tampa often focuses on taking the run away from the opposing defense first. It’s why they were ranked seventh in YPC allowed last year, and eighth in run defense DVOA. So to take some pressure off the run game, Detroit needed to prove they were a threat passing the ball. Goff threw it 44 times in their first matchup, 43 times in the divisional round, and 55 times on Sunday. They went with what worked previously, and it just didn’t work out that way the third time around.