Lions vs. Cowboys bold prediction: LaPorta breaks out against broken Cowboys defense

The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season, and things aren’t looking up for them. They’re down three star players on their defense as they host a Detroit Lions team hungry for revenge.

We’ve seen this script before. The Los Angeles Rams had a gaping hole in their defensive line following the departure of Aaron Donald, and the Lions (albeit once overtime started) forced the ball down their throats. The Seahawks were down four starters on their front seven, the Lions rolled out the same strategy to take an early lead and never look back. Now, the Lions travel to face a Dallas team that will be without three former All-Pro players: EDGE Micah Parsons, EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence, and LB Eric Kendricks.

On the Lions side, things are looking up. Kayode Awosika filled in admirably at guard in Week 4 as Graham Glasgow slid over to center to fill in for Frank Ragnow. Now, just three weeks removed from a partially torn pectoral muscle, Ragnow is set to return to the starting lineup.

I don’t think the game plan will be exactly one-to-one with what we saw against the Rams and the Seahawks. While those teams were missing more of their interior defenders, the Cowboys are missing both of their starters on the edge. That means the Lions will get to press Jahmyr Gibbs again and again until a backup defender forgets to set the edge and Gibbs can break to the second level. That’s where the magic will happen, where not having to face Eric Kendricks will be a huge plus. I’m fully expecting several 15-20-yard outside runs from Gibbs on Sunday.

Bold prediction of the week: Sam LaPorta has 6+ receptions against Cowboys
At this rate, you’re probably wondering where Sam LaPorta comes into things. With the Cowboys down several men on defense, they may have to overcompensate to stop the Lions' run game. Playing backup players isn’t always as much of a physical drop-off as it is mental. I’d expect them to bite heavily on play-action and fakes. The linebackers may be a second slower to read and react without Eric Kendricks, and that’ll be Jared Goff’s bread and butter on offense.

Ben Johnson’s game plan probably won’t test the Cowboys' secondary too much, since they’re disciplined and at full health. Instead, it’ll take what the defense gives them underneath, and that’ll be a lot of passes to tight ends and running backs. If the Lions can establish the run early and force the defense to respect it, then the play action game will be running like a well-oiled machine.

On LaPorta’s end, it has been a quiet start to the year. He hasn’t had more than four receptions in a game, a number he eclipsed 12 times last season. Similarly, the Lions tight ends as a whole haven’t accumulated more than six receptions in a game. I have LaPorta singlehandedly matching that against the Cowboys. It’s a favorable matchup both schematically and with the Cowboys missing one of the best coverage linebackers in the league.

Ultimately, it’s all contingent on the Lions establishing the run early to set up the play action pass. I don’t think Ben Johnson will force anything too deep this week, but instead, he’ll get the short passing game more involved and keep Jared Goff’s hot streak going. That means good news for Sam LaPorta to get back on track and be the threat we know he can be.