The Detroit Lions were historically basement dwellers in the NFL, but a culture shift under head coach Dan Campbell led to them being one of the best teams in the league the past two years. Last season, they put together a 15-2 record, good enough to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Unfortunately, they have suffered playoff heartbreak in both those seasons, including losing in a significant upset to the Washington Commanders in last year's Divisional Round.
Now, the Lions will try to repeat that success despite losing both their coordinators and their starting center. Unfortunately, oddsmakers expect some significant regression from them this season.
Four teams in the NFL have a win total of 11.5: Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills. The Lions are not one of those four teams. Not only is their win total set at a full win lower at 10.5, but the OVER is set at plus-money at +105, meaning there is an implied probability of just 48.78% that the Lions go 11-6 or better. Remember, they've won 12+ games the past two seasons, so even if they reach 11-6, that's a step back from how they performed the past two years.
The biggest thing working against the Lions this season is their strength of schedule. According to Tankathon.com, they have the second most difficult schedule in the NFL behind only the Giants. The Lions will have to play five games against playoff teams, a year ago, as well as a game against the Bengals and six divisional games in the most competitive division in the NFL.
Something that's working in the Lions' favor is that their metrics from last season are favorable. They finished sixth in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.5) while also coming in at third in EPA per play and seventh in opponent EPA. The question will be whether or not they can produce at the same level while replacing their two coordinators and their all-pro center, who surprisingly retired this offseason.
The good news is the NFC isn't top-heavy. While it's a deeper conference than the AFC, the Eagles are the only truly elite team, leaving the Lions in a spot where they can slot in at the No. 2 spot.
They'll open their season in Green Bay against the Packers in Week 1.
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