In this offseason series, Athlon Sports' Doug Farrar asks the One Big Question for every NFL team that will become readily apparent when the season does begin, and the lights are at their brightest. We continue with the Minnesota Vikings, who seem to have everything lined up for a possible Super Bowl run. Of course, the One Big Question here is whether quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season due to injury, can validate the franchise's decisions to move on from Sam Darnold, and give Aaron Rodgers little more than a cursory look in free agency.
Based on J.J. McCarthy's work with the Michigan Wolverines from 2021-2023, when he totaled 481 completions in 714 attempts for 6,231 yards, 48 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.6, I was impressed to a point... but not completely blown away. McCarthy's athleticism and deep-ball abilities made him more than a "system quarterback" in the pejorative sense, but he wasn't really the kind of quarterback who elevates an offense beyond its personnel.
It's not bad at all to be the perfect product of the system, as McCarthy was more often than not, but if your NFL team selects you with the 10th overall pick in a draft, and said NFL team trades up to do it, as the Minnesota Vikings did with McCarthy in 2024, your NFL team might want a bit more than that. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell, one of the NFL's best passing game designers, was all in on the pick, and he spoke as much or more about McCarthy's intellectual abilities as what he could do physically with a relatively small sample size.
"Even when you've watched a lot of tape of a lot of players over the years, there's still some questions you have as far as the why, the how, the what, the when," O'Connell said after the pick, and why McCarthy was his man. "His understanding of their offense and his understanding of the pass game of what they did there at Michigan was outstanding. And then, ultimately, being able to see him kind of take information directly from me in an install setting and see him take it out to the field was really, really encouraging for what that may mean for his development and the process that now we get to go through together.
"And I think throughout these last few weeks here, you build relationships with some of these guys, and absolutely did so with J.J., and I know he really wanted to be a Minnesota Viking. And I know hopefully as excited as our fans are, they can know that J.J. McCarthy really wanted to be a Minnesota Viking, and he cannot wait to get here and get to work."
Well, who wouldn't want to work with Kevin O'Connell, especially after what O'Connell did to resuscitate San Darnold's career in 2024? As we all know, McCarthy's rookie season was a non-starter once he suffered the torn meniscus that prevented him from playing in a single regular-season game. That gave Darnold, the third-overall pick in the 2018 draft, and a journeyman thereafter, the opportunity to thrive as few expected in O'Connell's offense on a one-year, $10 million backup deal. That gave Darnold enough juice to get a three-year, $100.5 million contract with $37.5 million in guarantees from the Seattle Seahawks, which means that it's McCarthy's time in Minnesota all over again.
McCarthy did have a bit of preseason work in 2024 — he completed 11 of 17 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 116.8 before things went unexpectedly south. What showed up in a big way in that preseason was McCarthy's deep passing. The rookie attempted three passes of 20 or more air yards, completing all three for 99 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and the highest possible passer rating of 158.3.
The Las Vegas Raiders actually did throw some diverse coverage looks at McCarthy, disguising the intent of their safeties after the snap, and McCarthy had no issue beating it all up with the help of O'Connell's route concepts.
"I thought the go ball was beautiful," O'Connell said after that game, when asked whether the deep throws were easy for McCarthy, or whether the system made them look easy. "It's just a go ball. Trishton [Jackson] did a great job closing the space, stepping on the corner's toes and slipping by him. And J.J., five and one hitch ball out, trusting him to go to the spot. Beautiful throw. And then the second throw — or second touchdown to Trent [Sherfield Sr.] — really off of a hard play action, started to feel him kind of fit gaps a little quicker and thought we could maybe get an easy one over the top, but you've still got to hit it, and once again comes off the fake, hides up, one hitch ball out, so really positive.
"Had a big conversion there to [Nick] Muse on a third down, so I thought there was a lot of positives and a lot of things that we'll be able to coach off of. Really did like the groups we had out on the field. I liked the way we were able to get these guys some good work early. I think it was twelve plays, maybe that first drive, and then we kept some guys in there who we wanted to see continue to progress with where they're at. Guys like Trishton [Jackson] and [Jalen] Nailor had a really good night, Sherfield, guys that have been doing things on the practice field. It was great to see "
So, it's clear that O'Connell sees McCarthy as the perfect distillation of his creative mind. Not that there isn't room for development. McCarthy was also baptized in that 24-23 Vikings win with 13:38 left in the first half. The Raiders got pressure out of a Cover-1 look, forcing McCarthy out of the pocket, and the rookie threw late to receiver Trishton Jackson on an intermediate crossing route. Cornerback Jack Jones found it easy to jump the route, which is generally the case for defenders when the read is delayed.
McCarthy's late diagnosis was a concern of mine from his college days, and not that I know 10% of what Kevin O'Connell knows about football, but that play didn't make me feel any better.
"It was corners over, so we knew it was man-to-man," O'Connell said of the interception. "They ended up bringing a [line]backer [Robert Spillane, on the blitz]. [Running back] Kene [Nwangwu] attempted to pick up that pressure, it was a pretty violent hit right at his feet, we call that an NFL pocket. I have to go back and watch it, but it felt like maybe he could have put his foot in the ground and delivered that ball to Trishton a little faster. He chose to then move to his right and the ball got undercut a little late there. As he moved to his right, he tried to put it on Trishton, but he definitely knew where he was at right away with everything, and was ready to go back out there."
The good news is that McCarthy didn't have to deal with those inevitable "Welcome to the NFL" moments in a rookie regular season, and he has had that entire first year to study professional defenses. He also had a front-row seat to O'Connell's offense and what it did for Darnold, which is great, because Darnold and McCarthy are not dissimilar in their skill sets. Last season, Darnold completed 36 of 75 passes of 20 or more air yards for a league-high 1,214 yards, 10 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 106.0. And Darnold already proved that he could be O'Connell's perfect instrument for most of the season.
"The timing, those reps, all of that has to be built up over time," McCarthy said on June 1, as he had returned to the field for minicamps to finally run the offense. "So the more reps, the better. I just feel like we're not where we want to be, but we're going to be there when we need to."
McCarthy will also have Brian Flores' crazy-quilt defenses to go against in training camp, and there isn't a defensive coordinator in the league that throws more stuff at opposing quarterbacks.
"Just being able to go against that scheme," McCarthy concluded, "you can't get that anywhere else. And just being able to see that every single day, it's extremely invaluable."
The 2024 Vikings finished the regular season with a 14-3 record, and much was expected in the postseason. Unfortunately, that's when Darnold imploded — first in the regular-season finale (a 31-9 loss) against the Detroit Lions that decided the championship of the NFC North, and then in Minnesota's 27-9 wild-card embarrassment against the Los Angeles Rams. In both of those games, Darnold regressed and looked like the quarterback he had once been, as opposed to the quarterback O'Connell helped him to be.
J.J. McCarthy will go through his own rough spots once he does get regular-season reps, and no amount of practice will prevent that. The hope is that he's able to tread enough water when those things happen to avoid the little disasters of the franchise's recent past. He's on a team with the ideal head coach for quarterback development, and everything else needed for a deep playoff run.
Now, McCarthy will have more expected of him than ever before, on the brightest possible stage. We shall soon see whether that was the right decision or not.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).
