Originally posted on Action Network | By Doug Ziefel | Last updated 7/6/24
Friday was good for us, as we went 2-1, and now we have an opportunity to build on our winnings with Saturday's slate. Three starters are in tough spots, and fading them should be profitable.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Saturday, July 6 — featuring picks for James Paxton and Bailey Falter.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, July 6
- Joe Ryan under 18.5 outs (-150, DraftKings)
- Bailey Falter under 15.5 outs (-143, BetRivers)
- James Paxton under 4.5 strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
Astros vs. Twins
Saturday, July 6, 2:10 p.m. ET, BSMW
Joe Ryan Under 18.5 Outs (-150, DraftKings)
Joe Ryan has been excellent this season, entering with a 3.21 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 17 starts. His expected numbers also show that he should improve on those numbers as the season goes along, but he may not do much of that today.
Ryan will be up against the Houston Astros this afternoon. The Astros have found their stride offensively and come into this matchup as the No. 1 team in baseball in wRC+ and OBP against right-handed pitching.
On top of their hot hitting, they have been a tough team to strike out all year, as they rank 29th in strikeout rate against righties on the season. So, all of this points to Ryan dealing with a lot of traffic on the bases.
That traffic should drive up his pitch count and force him to leave before the seventh inning. Getting into the seventh inning has been difficult for Ryan this season, as he's left before then in 12 of his 17 starts.
Mets vs. Pirates
Saturday, July 6, 4:05 p.m. ET, BSMW
Bailey Falter Under 15.5 Outs (-143, BetRivers)
Our next stop on the fade train will be in Pittsburgh, where Bailey Falter will take the mound against the New York Mets. The Mets are begging to cool off a bit as they've dropped three straight after a great month of June, but this matchup could kickstart their lineup again.
Falter enters this matchup due for significant regression. He enters this outing with an xERA of 4.85, which is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.87.
Much of that is due to the great amount of loud contact Falter has been surrendering this season. We should see more of that today as the Mets are second in the majors in wRC+ against lefties this year.
With Mets set to feast, we should not see much of Bailey Falter. Backing him to leave after five is a strong angle, as he's gone five innings or less in 56% of his 47 career starts.
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Saturday, July 6, 6:15 p.m. ET, BSMW
James Paxton Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
Our last stop will be in Los Angeles, where the Milwaukee Brewers will take on James Paxton and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Paxton has been the weak link in this Dodgers rotation as the 35-year-old lefty has been unable to turn back the clock.
He has struggled with his command this season, which has led to many walks and hard contact but also few strikeouts. Tonight, he'll face a Brewers lineup that has been seeing the ball well lately.
The Brewers come into this game 13th in wRC+ and fifth in OBP against lefties over their last 15 games. A big part of their success in that span has come from putting the ball in play, as they are 27th in strikeout rate as well.
This is all bad news for Paxton, who has gone under this total in 12 of his 15 starts this season. All signs point to another tally being added to his streak of under tonight.
