Nationals 5, Red Sox 1: The Clutch is Broken! - hong nhung

With each passing game, a clear and ugly trend continues to emerge and solidify around the Red Sox offense: They can’t execute in meaningful situations!

Tonight against the Nationals, they were at the plate in 17 of the 18 highest leverage situations the game had to offer, and somehow, they managed to score just a single run. Here are the gory details from FanGraphs:

The Nationals managed more positive WPA (Winning Percentage Added) in their favor on a single twelve hop grounder through the vacated right side of the infield off Tanner Houck than the Red Sox did in any one of their 17 different plate appearance with a leverage index of at least 1.25. Absolutely brutal!

Here is the play that gave Washington all the runs they would need to defeat this pitiful Red Sox offense:

Sorry Tanner, you should have pitched a shutout if you wanted to win with this lineup backing you tonight!

By the numbers, Jarren Duran had the most costly at bat of the evening when he struck out looking to end the sixth with the bases loaded, but Tyler O’Neill probably had the worst night overall as he got thrown out at home plate in the first inning, hit into a costly double play in the seventh inning, and struck out his other three times up to bat, including to end the game with two men on base.

And you know what’s even worse? The Red Sox offense did this against Patrick Corbin, who absolutely blows! I don’t think most people realize how terrible Patrick Corbin is at pitching now. He’s a name you may remember from that electric 2019 Nationals World Series squad, and to be fair, he was a key, constructive part of that title; but he’s been cooked for years since! He led all of baseball in hits allowed in 2020, home runs allowed in 2021, earned runs allowed in 2022, and losses in 2023. And he entered tonight with a wretched 6.45 ERA.

This is the guy the Sox couldn’t deliver a counter punch against to help out Tanner Houck after he got paper cut to death with two out in the second inning. Are you kidding me?

Now, this would be pathetic enough if it was an isolated incident, but alarmingly, it’s part of a much bigger trend of disappointment and futility. It’s not just that they went 1-9 with runners in scoring position tonight and are now 2-29 in that situation over the last three games, it’s that they absolutely stink in both high leverage spots and whenever they trail throughout the entire season so far.

Here is their OPS in low, medium and high leverage situations this year (per baseball reference) entering tonight’s game:

Low Leverage: .786

Medium Leverage: .728

High Leverage: .517

All of this helps explain how they have a +30 run differential, and yet are sitting at just .500 in the standings at 19-19. And along those same lines:

Red Sox team OPS when leading this year: .829 (The best OPS of any team in the American League when leading.)

Red Sox team OPS when trailing this year: .560 (The second worst OPS of any team in the American League when trailing. Only the White Sox are worse.)

They do night fight back! They either get a lead and keep pouring it on while their pitching holds the opponent in check, or they fall behind early and just spend the entire game throwing away opportunities. This is a big reason why Kenley Jansen hasn’t pitching in a save opportunity since April 20th. That was three weeks ago!

It’s so frustrating too because with the way this pitching staff has been dealing, it should be easier to rack up those feel good comeback wins, and yet, the Red Sox are 0-15 when trailing after seven inning this year. They haven’t even been able to put together a single one.

Part of it is the injuries to Trevor Story, Triston Casas, and Masataka Yoshida, part of it is the team not investing in enough depth during the offseason, and part of it is the player’s themselves just putting together incredibly poor at bats when they need to come through the most, but this is something they need to change if they want to surprise and compete for a playoff spot.

Tonight was a perfect example with Houck settling in after some early troubles, going seven strong innings (allowing three runs), and just getting no help from the bats. It was a nice home win right there for the taking, and nobody could come through.

If the pitching we’re seeing is real, winning and losing these types of games is going to make or break the Sox season. So far, it’s not looking good.