NFL Analyst Delivers Controversial Take on Brock Purdy’s Contract

With every NFL offseason comes a plethora of opinions on what each team should do during free agency or the NFL Draft. Sometimes, the takes are so outlandish they find themselves inching closer to the “hot take” side of the spectrum. While some crazy ideas eventually become true, most are scoffed at or forgotten. However, one hot take is picking up steam amongst San Francisco 49ers fans regarding Brock Purdy’s future contract.

In the 2025 edition of his “Bold Resolutions for 10 NFL Players,” Spotrac’s Michael Ginnitti delivered a unique, albeit controversial, prediction for Brock Purdy’s contract negotiations with the 49ers.

Ginniti’s Bold Prediction

Ginnitti begins by questioning the validity of Purdy’s success but also wondering if his 2024 struggles were a one-off.

“[Purdy’s extension] is becoming one of the tougher reads of the looming offseason, as a wonderful story and dynamically exciting team came to a crashing halt in 2024. Purdy battled his own injuries this season but, even when healthy, did not appear capable of elevating a weakened offense to higher places. Was 2024 just an overall mess to be ignored, or is it proof of a much lower future ceiling (confirming his original draft position)?”

Purdy finished 2024 with a 65.9 completion percentage, 3,864 yards, 25 total touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 15 games. His numbers are a clear step down from his 2023 MVP-finalist season. However, as Gininnit points out, how much of his regression is solely on Purdy?

The 49ers had the second-most players placed on Injured Reserve this season. Among them include reigning offensive player of the year Christian McCaffrey, future Hall of Famer Trent Williams, and 2023 leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk. According to Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers were the fifth-most impacted team by injuries in 2024.

San Francisco’s injuries may be where the biggest divide of Purdy’s value exists. Did the injuries hinder Purdy’s ability? If so, does that mean he lacks to traits of a franchise quarterback to succeed despite the surrounding circumstances? Or do the injuries justifiably explain Purdy’s regression?

Purdy’s Market Value

Ginnitti continues by debating Purdy’s market value and admits the quarterback could receive a lower-than-expected deal.

“It was perfectly plausible to evaluate Purdy’s looming extension along the lines of Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, or even Joe Burrow based on his ability to both navigate and manage one of the top teams in all of football for multiple seasons,” Ginnitti wrote. “It now seems perfectly plausible to evaluate Purdy a tier below that threshold, especially with the growing sense that the 49ers aren’t going to be negotiating against another other NFL team for Purdy’s services going forward (a mistake the Giants made with Daniel Jones 2+ years ago).”

In 2025, Purdy will make an estimated $5.2 million due to contract escalators after making the 2023 Pro Bowl team.  Yet, Ginnitti wonders if the 49ers will ask Purdy to play out the final year of his rookie contract or if the quarterback will hold out, hoping to receive a fair offer.
Ginnitti finishes by predicting how the 49ers and Brock Purdy’s contract negotiations will resolve.

“Prediction: The 49ers offer Brock Purdy a well-below-market 3-year, $105M extension, including $50M guaranteed. Purdy declines the offer, holds out most of the summer, then returns to play on his $5M salary for 2025, setting up free agency or a potential franchise tag in 2026.”

The San Francisco 49ers have already stated they are committing to Brock Purdy, but the longer an extension takes, anything is possible — including Ginnitti’s prediction.