NFL analyst too-easily tabs Jahmyr Gibbs for some regression in 2025

With four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) in Week 18, with the NFC North title on the line, Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs set the single-season franchise record for touchdowns from scrimmage last year (20). He also joined Barry Sanders as the only players in franchise history with over 1,700 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns in a season.

The way Gibbs has produced in what has been a near-even split of the snaps with David Montgomery is impressive. There is a thought new offensive coordinator John Morton may shift the backfield snap share toward Gibbs this year. If Morton can succeed in a small area schematically where Ben Johnson fell short, Gibbs' full ceiling could be revealed.

Touchdowns, by their sheer nature, are random and subject to fluctuation year-to-year for skill position players. At times, scoring a touchdown or not comes down to fortune going your way or not.

Even with that in mind, ESPN fantasy analyst Matt Bowen and Tristan Cockroft still had Gibbs as the best touchdown bet among running backs heading toward the 2025 season.

"He's both speed demon and goal-line dynamo" Cockroft wrote, "leading the league in explosive play rate (15.7% of his carries went for 10-plus yards), while also placing third in touchdown conversion rate inside the 3-yard line (72.2%, or 13 of 16). No running back has a greater combination of touchdown-generating skills."

"At 5-foot-9, 202 pounds, Gibbs doesn't have the physical profile of a classic goal-line back, but he can operate in tight quarters, using his lateral quickness to dart through creases of daylight, while dropping his pad level at the doorstep of the end zone", Bowen wrote. "Plus, with his short-area burst, Gibbs can bounce the ball outside to slice through pursuit angles on the goal line or out in the open field. He is electric with the ball in his hands."

Of course there are two sides to every story, and another ESPN fantasy analyst has taken another angle on Gibbs.

Jahmyr Gibbs tabbed for some (expected) regression in 2025

ESPN's Mike Clay has Gibbs on his list of 11 players who will score fewer touchdowns in 2025.

"Gibbs exploded for 20 touchdowns last season, and if he reaches that mark again, he'll be only the sixth player in NFL history to achieve that feat. Gibbs was substantially above his expected TD total (13.2) and well behind David Montgomery in carries inside the 5-yard line when both were active (17 to 11). Even in a terrific Detroit offense, a dip is likely."

Clay has Gibbs' projected touchdown total for 2025 at 14. That would be a 30 percent erosion from last year, but still a fine season. Gibbs' scoring prowess last year also the Lions' franchise record for total touchdowns, some regression this year is a natural expectation.

With the change in offensive coordinator, regression is the easy buzz word for the Lions' offense this year. So it becomes convenient to place that label on a key player whenever the numbers say it fits. But Gibbs repeating his 20 touchdowns from 2024 would be literal historical air, as Clay noted, and a drop-off won't necessarily mean his 2025 season ends up as a disappointment.