NFL Insider Predicts Vikings Replace Sam Darnold With 3,000-Yard QB

The Minnesota Vikings’ polarizing decisions at quarterback last offseason defined the franchise in 2024, and they are liable to do so again next year.

Minnesota will either have to let breakout star and MVP candidate Sam Darnold walk after securing him at huge value for $10 million this season, or the organization will have to forfeit that value by inking the QB to something in the neighborhood of a four-year deal worth upwards of $35-$40 million annually.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell predicted on Thursday, December 12, that the Vikings will forge the less certain path forward and transition away from Darnold to 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy, who the team selected No. 10 overall in the 2024 NFL draft and who last played for the University of Michigan where he threw for nearly 3,000 yards and captured a National Title.

Minnesota will have more than $79 million in cap space next year per Spotrac, but the Vikings are also one of the league’s oldest teams and have five starters hitting free agency this offseason, including their top three cornerbacks. And while it is thriving with Darnold under center, the defense has been the driving force for its victories, as the Vikings rank second in EPA per play on defense.

[Darnold] ranks 16th in Total QBR, a reflection of both the highs and lows that have come with his first season. Getting trapped with a league-average starter on a market-value deal is a dangerous game for franchises, and we saw the Vikings grapple to build a Super Bowl contender around [Kirk] Cousins in a similar situation for six seasons in Minnesota.

Sam Darnold Hovering Around NFL MVP Conversation

While Barnwell is content enough relying on advanced metrics as a measure of Darnold as a middle-of-the-road starting quarterback, other measures of his play place Darnold’s value higher than that.

Darnold was sixth in MVP odds as of Tuesday, just behind quarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs for entrance into the top five. In fairness, Darnold’s odds were +5000, but a lot of movement can happen over the final four games of the season.

If Minnesota can beat the Detroit Lions in their rematch in Week 18 and that victory puts the Vikings over the top in both the NFC North Division and the conference as a whole — earning them the No. 1 seed and bye — and Darnold plays well down the stretch, then all bets are off.

Darnold has also thrown for 3,299 yards, 28 TDs and 10 INTs through 13 games this season. His current pace puts him on track for 4,314 passing yards, 37 TDs and 13 INTs. Those may not quite be MVP numbers when the season is all said and done, but they are pretty spectacular by any measure.

Losing Brian Flores Would Make Loss of Sam Darnold Hurt Even More for Vikings

Minnesota must also consider that Darnold is a seasoned veteran who can handle adversity, knows the NFL game considerably better than McCarthy and knows the Vikings’ offensive system better simply due to the fact that he’s now run it 13 times to McCarthy’s zero.

The rookie out of Michigan hasn’t played a single regular-season snap in his professional career and won’t before 2025, as a knee injury over the summer sidelined him for the entirety of the campaign.

If Minnesota does move on from Darnold, the bet will be that the offensive scheme and the players the front office has put around the QB position are elite enough to elevate a complete newbie with flaws and literally zero on-field experience. It would also be a bet on the defense, which Barnwell contended is the true driver of the team’s 11-2 record this season.

However, a big part of that defensive success is due to the presence of second-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who is likely to get head coaching interest from other teams in the upcoming cycle, including from the division rival Chicago Bears.

Should Flores and Darnold both depart, the Vikings could be looking at another step back in 2025 like the one they took from 2022 to 2023, when the team went from a 13-4 record and the division crown to a 7-10 record and watching the postseason from their resort suites in Cabo.