If you’re really cool, you get to call San Francisco’s football team the Niners.
It’s these privileged bandwagoners who made reservations for New Orleans in February, believing their guys will run the table when the time comes.
That leaves us uncool folks to concoct nine reasons this isn’t going to happen.
1. They’re 5-4.
Sorry to lead off here with Shohei Ohtani, but saying a 5-4 team whose wins have come over the Jets, Patriots, Seahawks, Cowboys and Buccaneers is Super Bowl-bound delivers a first pitch down the middle. If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would be packing for a long vacation. They aren’t in the postseason field as of the start of Week 11. Neither are any of the five teams they’ve beaten. That’s the reality.
Alas, the playoffs are light years away, and there’s time to make up ground. The problem is the 49ers have played three would-be playoff teams so far and have lost to all three. At that rate, they’ll lose to the Packers, Bills, Lions and Cardinals, leaving them 9-8. So, you know what they say: You are what you are. And in this case, they truly are what they are: 5-4.
2. This isn’t the NFC South.
Sure, the 49ers might win the rematch with the first-place Cardinals. But they also could lose this week to the Seahawks and again to the Rams next month. The fact is, there are no softies in the NFC West anymore.
Alas, there are no powers either. Did I mention that the Cardinals currently occupy the catbird seat? So going 3-0 against the West the rest of the way is quite possible. And, unfortunately, it’s equally possible for each of the other three regional rivals.
3. They’ve played to the level of the competition.
Coming off a relatively easy win over the Cowboys, followed by a bye, the 49ers had momentum and fans dialing up the reservations desk at the Bourbon Street Biltmore. A cakewalk over a Tampa Bay team without any receivers, another win over a Seahawks team they’ve already beaten, and …
Have you been paying attention? This was a team that lost to a Minnesota squad still asking itself: Are we seriously starting Sam Darnold at quarterback? They blew leads against the Rams and Cardinals, then almost did the same against a reeling Cowboys bunch. When they struggled to hold off Baker & The Cream Puffs, it was yet another reminder that, thank goodness, this wasn’t a real team.
4. The Packers, Eagles and Lions. Oh my.
If the 49ers win the division, they’ll get one playoff game at home. But that could very easily be against the Packers, who gave the home team fits last January even when the 49ers were a legitimate contender.
And we’re just getting started. There’s no way the 49ers are catching either the Lions or Eagles in the standings, which plots a playoff map where they fly to Philly in the ice to face a vastly superior defense. Then, if they’re lucky, they get to retrace their flight pattern to Detroit a week later to see a much more powerful offense. The chances of beating the Packers, Eagles and Lions in succession? Less likely than a Mike Tyson retirement anytime soon.
5. They’re not getting their money’s worth.
No team in the NFL is more top-heavy in expensive talent than the 49ers. But the uncompromising NFL salary cap assures that for every top-of-the-market contract, there are five bottom-of-the-market deals, and that’s why few teams attempt to take this path to glory.
Think about the Boston Celtics and imagine if they had to play 11 guys at a time. That’s hard to do when you only have six not named Luke Corn Nut or the like. Every opponent seems to attack the 49ers differently, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve paid to dig themselves a lot of holes.
6. They’re feeling the heat.
The star wideout is going at it with the long snapper. Yikes.
I get where Deebo Samuel was coming from. On the third play of the game in Tampa, Kyle Shanahan called in a play. It sounded like: Send Deebo around left end. I don’t care how badly his ribs are hurting; we need to score on this drive. Pow. But he gains 12, so Shanahan is proud.
The team misses Brandon Aiyuk’s across-the-middle route running. They couldn’t afford to import an in-traffic pass-catcher at the deadline, so while Jauan Jennings hugs the sidelines as Aiyuk’s replacement, breath-struggling Samuel and gimpy George Kittle get more safety-targeting routes. You can’t lash out in pain at the boss, so some guy named Pepper gets peppered.
7. The team is getting healthier … or is it?
After a much-needed bye, Samuel returned with sore ribs and Nick Bosa with a painful hip. They needed more time off, but Shanahan needed more wins. So they braved the Florida heat... and watched as Kittle’s overuse got him hamstrung.
And Christian McCaffrey? Where a cameo might have been the doctor’s orders in his long-awaited season debut, he instead got 19 touches — the football equivalent of throwing eight innings despite a pitch count.
Since Shanahan is unwilling to take the foot off the pedal, what the 49ers need right now is a rivalry game. Where are they when you need them? Bring the Raiders back to the Bay Area, let everyone coast through a four-touchdown win, and surely you show up for this week’s Seahawks game with a lighter injury report. But even Mark Davis seems to hate the Niners.
8. Here’s the kicker: It truly is the kicker’s fault.
The 49ers have lost confidence in kicker Jake Moody, and rightfully so. They caught a break when Moody got injured earlier in the year, then among 10,000 college kids being groomed under the pressure of the ESPN College GameDay spotlight, they somehow couldn’t find anyone better. So here we were again in Tampa, where three flubbed field goals nearly sent the 49ers home with a losing record.
Chances are Moody will have to make a big one against the Eagles, Lions or in the Super Bowl. But he’s not even a sure thing on PATs anymore. I’d hate to be the long snapper, because chances are they’ll gang up on him next time.
9. The $60 million man isn’t the answer.
The 49ers have a top-10 quarterback, one that will start getting paid like one next season. It won’t matter if he wins a Super Bowl this February or not.
That’s a break for Brock Purdy, because he’s not flying home with the trophy. As the 49ers know full well, the team with the better quarterback usually wins the Super Bowl. And as good as Purdy is, he doesn’t measure up to Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, the AFC’s three leading men. One of those three likely is going to New Orleans. Good luck, Jared Goff.
