Welcome to what we expect to be a reoccurring series as the 2025-26 NHL season rolls on throughout the year. With free agency settling down to roster-filling roles, and the Tampa Bay Lightning seemingly set at this point, we take our first shot at what the Opening Night roster might look like.
The first thing we notice is that it bears a striking resemblance to the line-up throughout portions of last season. That seems to be by design. The Lightning didn’t go out of their way to add a lot of new players at the NHL level. Of all of their signings, Pontus Holmberg is the only one that seems set to have a spot.
Part of that is that the Lightnings top six on offense and top four on defense is pretty set. They also had several players under contract that can fill out bottom-six roles, so there wasn’t much on their shopping list this summer. Yes, it’s boring, but it’s also where the Lightning are at right now. They did their big moves last year with the Jake Guentzel signing and Mikhail Sergachev trade. Not every offseason can have roster-shaking moves (no matter how much we want it).
With this configuration, the Lightning are using 22 of their 23 roster slots and have $1,995,000 in cap space. Theoretically, they could carry another player on the roster. However, we think Julien BriseBois would rather let the cap space accumulate for an in-season deal, or to help with possible injury recalls. Besides, carrying a young player just to have them sit in the press box seems contrary to how they like to develop their prospects.
The top-six forwards seem set. While a spot on the second line could be up for grabs, we feel like it’s a healthy Oliver Bjorkstrand’s to lose. He seemed to be finding his groove prior to his injury, and sometimes the simplest solution is the right one.
We bounced some things around in terms of which combinations to use, but assuming that everyone is healthy this makes the most sense. The top two lines will generate the bulk of the scoring, but there is some offensive possibilities on the third line. The fourth line is a bit of hodge-podge, but a good spot to have Conor Geekie adjust full-time to a center role. In this configuration, it should also provide a little more offense than last year’s. We’re not sure if it’s functional, but it’s a start.
| Total 2024-25 5v5 goals | |
| Point Line | 64 |
| Cirelli Line | 54 (includes Bjorkstrand’s Seattle goals) |
| Paul Line | 27 (includes Gourde’s Seattle goals) |
| Geekie Line | 17 (includes Holmberg’s Toronto goals) |
Could we see Yanni Gourde or Nick Paul drop down to center the fourth line with Geekie getting kicked out to the wing? Possibly, but if the vision for the youngster is to be a future second-line center, at some point he has to start playing the position, so why not this year, and in a spot where Coach Jon Cooper can give him some protected minutes.
Yes, we have Zemgus Girgensons, aka “The Hammer”, sitting in the press box on opening night. We don’t think his spot in the starting line-up is guaranteed, and if he struggles in camp, or if the youngsters on the roster have great camps, he might find himself on the Conor Sheary Plan – placed on waivers and playing in Syracuse. That being said, he could also be in line for comeback player of the year next season. We don’t think he is as bad as his numbers showed last season, but he has to show early on that he can be the player he was in Buffalo in order to earn a spot in the line-up.
The same goes for Emil Lilleberg. It was an…interesting season for the young Norwegian last season. He was below water in just about every possession stat, and the Lightning’s 2.40 goals-allowed-per-60 while he was on the ice was the highest number on the team, but some of his other underlying numbers weren’t that bad. He was victimized by a .906 SV% while on the ice (the lowest of any defender) and the Bolts 2.41 xGA/60 was better than Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh. His shots-against and shot-attempts-against numbers were also pretty solid in comparison to his defensive teammates.
Still, we have Max Crozier starting above him for now. Despite playing on his off-hand, Crozier is a little more well-rounded than Lilleberg at this point in their careers. We could see Coach Cooper giving Crozier an extended look at the beginning of the season. Of course, we could see him start the season like he ended it, with an 11/7 rotation and have both of them playing.
With training camp still months away, and the possibility that some trades may still go down this season, it’s way too early to focus on what a final roster will look like, but we needed a baseline. We’ll check back at the start of September to see if our feelings change any. Of course, if JBB pulls off any type of deal, we’ll figure that out as well.
Feel free to post your roster ideas in the comments. Does Jack Finley make the team? Is Girgensons fired into the sun? Will Coach Cooper break up the Cirelli-Hagel combination?
