So far, nobody has found a way to exploit Brian Flores’ Minnesota Vikings defense.
Minnesota’s No. 22 ranking in “total defense” (a dumb stat that should be outlawed in 2024) is highly misleading, caused only by the fact that Minnesota has been leading by double-digits for the majority of the season. Advanced metrics paint a more accurate picture of how elite this defense has truly been.
Not only do the Vikings rank first in defensive DVOA, but they rank first in both pass defense DVOA and rush defense DVOA. This is because of their early-game dominance in both phases.
While two of the Vikings’ opponents tacked on a bunch of fourth-quarter points and yards when Minnesota was already up big, the Vikings have been nearly unbeatable when the game is still up for grabs. They are allowing a league-low 6.8 points per game through three quarters. The Vikings are also allowing the lowest opposing passer rating (67.0) and the fourth-fewest yards per rush attempt (3.6) through three quarters.
The Vikings have achieved this success despite facing a gauntlet of a schedule to start. Save for a warm-up game against the hapless Giants in Week 1, the Vikings have faced Brock Purdy and the 49ers, C.J. Stroud and the Texans, and Jordan Love and the Packers.
It is the second consecutive test against a thriving defense for Rodgers’ boys in green, who took on the Broncos (fifth in defensive DVOA) one week ago. They failed the test so poorly that they were forced to go to summer school, recording nearly as many offensive penalties (8) as points (9) in a grim loss.
If they couldn’t hit double-digit points against the fifth-ranked defense while playing at home… how are they going to do it away from home against the first-ranked defense?
Daunting as the matchup may seem, a recipe for success does exist against this Minnesota defense. It is up to Rodgers to execute it.
Here are the main ingredients of that recipe for Rodgers.
Feature Tyler Conklin
Minnesota has struggled a bit with covering tight ends this season. They have allowed opponents to complete 22-of-32 passes for 200 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions when targeting tight ends.
The Vikings have yielded a 106.3 passer rating on throws to tight ends, which ranks ninth-worst in the NFL. San Francisco’s George Kittle (76 yards) and Green Bay’s Tucker Kraft (53 yards) both had their season-highs in receiving yards against Minnesota. In addition, Kittle and Kraft each scored a touchdown, despite combining for one touchdown in the rest of their games this season.
Rodgers needs to pinpoint this weakness by featuring Tyler Conklin.
Conklin has been unable to build a consistent rapport with Rodgers. Through four games, he is averaging only 2.8 receptions per game and 31.5 yards per game. Both marks would be his worst across the four seasons he has spent as a full-time starter (2021-24).
Despite the relatively slow start, this duo has clearly shown the potential to become much more productive.
While Rodgers and Conklin are not connecting often, they are generating great results on the rare occasions when they do. Conklin is averaging 11.5 yards per reception, which is on track to be his best as a starter. In addition, he has picked up a first down on 54.5% of his receptions, which is also on track to be his best.
The problem is that Rodgers and Conklin have not connected consistently enough. Conklin has only caught 61.1% of his targets, which would be a career-low. He caught 70.1% of his targets last season and has a career average of 69.3%.
If he gets his catch rate up, Conklin will be as productive as he’s ever been in the NFL. He is much more of a big-play threat in the current iteration of the Jets offense than he was over the past two years, when he was more of a checkdown hub. Rodgers and Conklin just need to connect on a higher rate of their attempted connections to maximize Conklin’s newfound upside.
Conklin’s low catch rate falls on Rodgers for a Week 4 performance in which he misfired on multiple big-play chances to an open Conklin.
Conklin creates some separation on an out-and-up here, but Rodgers overthrows him, failing to at least give him a jump-ball opportunity.
This time, Conklin separates on a corner route that would have yielded at least 25 yards, but Rodgers comes up brutally short.
In addition to the misfires, there were also multiple reps against Denver where Conklin was open for a big play, but Rodgers failed to target him.
On this play, Rodgers predetermines his throw in the flat to Garrett Wilson, missing the chance to hit a wide-open Conklin downfield for at least 30 yards.
This time, Rodgers has a window to try and squeeze the ball to Conklin in the end zone, at least giving him a chance to make the play, but he elects to throw the ball away.
Rodgers surely went back into the film room and saw the opportunities he missed to Conklin, both via his accuracy and his decision-making. Going forward, he should prioritize tapping into the opportunities to hit Conklin that he left on the field.
The one game in which Rodgers and Conklin did have a strong rapport was also the one game in which New York’s offense looked like a juggernaut. In Week 3, Conklin caught five passes for 93 yards, helping the Jets accumulate 400 yards of offense and 27 first downs in a blowout win. It just goes to show how great the Jets offense can look when Conklin is involved.
In the Broncos game, the opportunities were there for Conklin to accumulate just as much production as he did against New England (if not more), but Rodgers just didn’t capitalize on them. Those opportunities will be there again on Sunday when the Jets take on a Vikings defense that has already allowed two tight ends to have their best game of the season so far.
If Rodgers capitalizes on those chances this time around, we could see a repeat of the New England game, both for Conklin and the whole offense.
Continue prioritizing ball security
Minnesota’s defense has relied heavily on these takeaways to be successful. The Vikings are second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. They have been productive in this area on a weekly basis, forcing at least two turnovers in each game.
This makes Aaron Rodgers a daunting matchup for the Vikings. Rodgers is protecting the football better than any quarterback in the NFL. He has yet to record a turnover-worthy throw or a fumble this season. Every other qualified quarterback has at least 3 combined turnover-worthy throws and fumbles.
Can the Vikings be as successful on defense without the help of turnovers? That is a question they have not had to answer yet, and they might have to answer it for the first time on Sunday.
From Rodgers’ perspective, it is imperative to prioritize maintaining his success in this area. Against a high-octane Vikings offense, Rodgers might be tempted to play more aggressively to keep up. He must avoid that temptation—not just to challenge Minnesota’s defense but also to put pressure on their offense. The Vikings offense has begun 8 drives in opponent territory (2nd-most), scoring 4 touchdowns on those (2nd-most).
Minnesota has yet to win a game without profiting off multiple takeaways. It is on Rodgers to make the Vikings prove they can sustain four quarters of excellence without the offense having points gifted to them.
Go after Byron Murphy in the slot
The best offensive game plans are usually built around the consistent exploitation of the opponent’s worst player in coverage. For Minnesota, that player is cornerback Byron Murphy – particularly in the slot.
Murphy has been the most easily exploitable slot defender in the NFL this season, and it is not remotely close. Despite ranking 26th with 64 slot coverage snaps, Murphy has allowed the second-most yards (185) and fifth-most receptions (15) in slot coverage.
Murphy ranks last among 38 qualified slot defenders (min. 40 slot coverage snaps) with 2.89 yards allowed per slot coverage snap. The next-worst player, Buffalo’s Cam Lewis, is at 1.94. The gap of 0.95 between Murphy and Lewis is equal to the gap between Lewis and the 17th-worst player.
While Murphy is most vulnerable in the slot, he can be exploited on the outside, too. When not aligned in the slot, Murphy has still allowed 13-of-19 passing for 167 yards. It is in the slot where he is most vulnerable, though, as his 2.89 yards per cover snap allowed in the slot is more than double his 1.43 yards per cover snap allowed on all other reps.
Whenever Rodgers sees Murphy (jersey No. 7) in the slot, he must go after him. It does not matter who he is matched up against; Rodgers will find success when attacking him.
Last week, Green Bay enjoyed immense success by attacking Murphy with a multitude of players. Seven different players caught a pass against Murphy, including four wide receivers, two tight ends, and one running back. Ultimately, Murphy was targeted 15 times and allowed 12 catches for 143 yards, 8 first downs, and a touchdown.
In Week 3, five different Texans players—four wide receivers and one running back—caught a pass on Murphy. Murphy was targeted eight times and allowed five catches for 79 yards, four first downs, and a touchdown, all while lucking out that two of the passes thrown his way were dropped.
The Jets are built to mimic the model of attacking Murphy with numerous players, as they have been utilizing many different players in the slot. Conklin leads the team with 76 routes run from the slot. Allen Lazard (63) and Garrett Wilson (62) closely follow him, while Xavier Gipson (29) and Mike Williams (17) have also spent some time there. Even Jeremy Ruckert (8) and Breece Hall (5) have gotten at least one slot rep per game.
The idea of targeting Wilson against Murphy is particularly intriguing. In 2024, Wilson has been far more efficient in the slot than out wide. When aligned in the slot, Wilson has generated 1.70 yards per route run and a targeted passer rating of 119.1. When aligned out wide, Wilson has generated 1.13 yards per route run and a targeted passer rating of 46.4.
If Rodgers gets No. 5 against No. 7, it’s a must-target situation. Again, though, Rodgers should go after Murphy no matter who is across from him.
Lazard is another great option. In the slot this season, Lazard has generated 1.90 yards per route run and a targeted passer rating of 112.8. Conklin’s numbers are not as pristine, but as we saw in the clips above, that is largely because Rodgers has missed on some great opportunities to hit Conklin.
Feature Tyler Conklin. Protect the football. And throw at No. 7. Those are three main ingredients of Rodgers’ recipe for success at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
