October baseball, a blockbuster trade and other bold predictions for 2025 Red Sox

The Red Sox have the personnel in place to punch their ticket back to the postseason this fall.

The 2025 Red Sox season is nearly here.

And after missing the postseason in five of the past six seasons, expectations are high for a Red Sox team that made several upgrades this winter — and should be further buoyed by an injection of young talent via their stacked farm system.

Boston has the personnel in place to punch a ticket to October baseball this season. But a lot can change over a 162-game season. 

Here are 10 bold predictions for the 2025 Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox boast a top-10 defense in baseball 

A porous defense has been an Achilles’ heel for the Red Sox over the last few seasons.

Following a 2023 campaign where Boston led the AL with 0.63 errors per game, the Red Sox were once again dead-last in the AL last summer in both total errors (115) and fielding percentage (.981). 

A lot of those defensive woes revolved around Boston’s infield personnel — with Rafael Devers continuing to struggle at the hot corner and Trevor Story’s presence at shortstop missed during another injury-riddled season.

But Boston should have the players in place to right the ship moving forward.

Moving Devers from third base to DH won’t just limit the wear and tear on Boston’s top slugger, it will also solve a serious flaw on the roster. Devers has led the AL in errors at third base every season since 2018, posting a negative-6 Outs Above Average in 2024. 

Taking Devers’ glove out of the equation is already a plus for Boston. But the Red Sox’s replacement at third should also be a game-changer — as free-agent pickup Alex Bregman took home a Gold Glove Award at third with Houston during the 2024 campaign. 

Bregman’s play at third — coupled with the return of Story at shortstop — should solidify the infield. And even if Story is once again stung by the injury bug, smooth-fielding shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer could step in at some point.

Boston should have no qualms with their current outfield trio of Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and reigning AL Gold Glove Award winner Wilyer Abreu — with ESPN predicting that all three will sweep the Gold Glove ballot in the outfield this year. 

Boston regrets not signing Garrett Crochet to an extension 

The Red Sox finally added their ace this offseason in Garrett Crochet — and should benefit in the short-term by having the 25-year-old southpaw under team control for the next two years.

But Boston’s inability to bridge a gap on a long-term contract extension with its top starter before the start of the regular season could prove costly in the long run.

Gauging Crochet’s market and total value at this stage of his career can be tricky. As filthy as his arsenal of pitches is, Crochet has not pitched more than 146 innings in a single season — and his workload was significantly scaled back by the White Sox in the second half of 2024 in order to preserve his arm.

The Red Sox likely had to overpay and bank on Crochet’s potential rather than his tangible production in order to get a deal done before camp closed.

But now, Boston might have to brace for an even larger payday moving forward — as Crochet begins his Red Sox tenure by winning 18 games, sporting a 3.09 ERA, and fanning 273 batters en route to a second-place finish for the AL Cy Young Award behind Kansas City’s Cole Ragans.  

Five players hit 20 home runs

For all of the question marks regarding Boston’s pitching and injury concerns, the Red Sox shouldn’t necessarily have to fret about scoring runs this summer. 

Expect Boston to boast one of the most imposing lineups in baseball this season, with Devers — now able to focus solely on hitting as the team’s go-to DH — leading the way with 41 home runs and 121 RBI. 

Bregman benefits from hammering pitches over the Green Monster (.375 batting average, seven homers, 15 RBI over 21 games at Fenway) with 23 homers, while a healthy Triston Casas returns to form with 29 dingers of his own. 

While Boston does have some pop across their roster between Story, Duran, and Abreu, the Red Sox receive another power surge from their younger players — with Rafaela slugging 22 home runs and rookie Kristian Campbell adding 20 of his own. 

The “Big Three” are all on the big-league roster by July

Kristian Campbell’s meteoric rise in Boston’s farm system concluded this spring with the 22-year-old prospect winning the Sox’s starting 2B job.

But it won’t be long until the rest of Boston’s prized “Big Three” join him in the big leagues. 

Despite some early struggles in April, Campbell closes out his first full MLB season batting .278 with 20 home runs and 79 RBI — while the team’s top prospect Roman Anthony joins the club in early June and bats .288 down the stretch with 13 home runs. 

Fellow blue-chip talent Marcelo Mayer — who made a compelling case for big-league reps in April after a spectacular spring training (.333 average, 11 RBI in 36 at-bats) — joins the rest of his teammates in early July.

Beyond his own strong play, Mayer will be needed by Boston after Story suffers yet another injury during the dog days of the summer. 

While all three of Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer look like the real deal in 2025, Campbell finishes in second place for the AL Rookie of the Year Award behind Tigers righty Jackson Jobe. 

Boston’s bullpen is an issue

The Red Sox made solid upgrades to their starting rotation with both Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. 

But Boston’s bullpen remains unsettled, with the Red Sox’s relief corps filled with several intriguing options — but also a lot of instability. 

Aroldis Chapman still has potent swing-and-miss stuff on the mound, but his erratic command will make for some stressful ninth-inning situations for Boston’s current closer. 

A return to form from former All-Star Liam Hendriks would be welcomed, but he also struggled this spring (9.95 ERA) — while Garrett Whitlock remains a wild card due to his injury history. 

Despite some steady play from Justin Slaten and a late-season emergence of fireball-throwing reliever David Sandlin, Boston’s eighth and ninth-inning roles remain in flux for most of the summer.

Coming up short in offseason pursuits of Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman stands as a critical miscalculation by Boston. 

Tanner Houck regresses, while Fitts steps up 

While Crochet and Buehler (who wins 15 games in a much-needed rebound season) anchor the top of Boston’s rotation, there are some question marks as far as who fills in behind them in the rotation. 

Brayan Bello should take another step forward as the team’s No. 3 starter, but reigning All-Star Tanner Houck might be in line for some tough sledding. The righty has regularly struggled during spring training during his big-league career, but this year’s results were ghastly (11.20 ERA), with some regression expected for the 28-year-old. 

Houck’s step back and more injury woes for Lucas Giolito will create a vacancy in Boston’s rotation, some of which will be addressed by Richard Fitts — who is slated to open the season as the team’s No. 4 starter.

Fitts impressed down the stretch for Boston last season (1.74 ERA in four starts), and should eventually settle into a role as a dependable No. 5 starter.  

Casas breaks out, Duran takes a step back

After a lost season in 2024, Casas returns to form by slugging 29 home runs and finishing top-10 in the AL in on-base percentage.

Despite his budding reputation as one of the most poised sluggers in the game, the candid infielder continues to alienate Red Sox fans by saying he prefers Starbucks to Dunkin’. 

While Casas impresses in the heart of the order, Jarren Duran takes a slight step back in 2025. It was a tall task to replicate the 8.7 WAR season he orchestrated in 2024, but Duran still manages to post a very strong 5.5 WAR campaign — even if some of his production at the plate dips.

Even with some expected regression, Duran’s speed will routinely help him turn bloop singles into extra-base hits. 

Boston trades for an All-Star pitcher(s)

With Boston’s lineup rolling right along, Craig Breslow and the Red Sox’s top brass opt to further bolster this team after a strong start to the season. 

In an effort to add both a high-impact reliever and another elite starter to put Boston’s rotation over the top, the Red Sox pull off a blockbuster with a disappointing Padres team — trading Wilyer Abreu, Kutter Crawford, and prospects Luis Perales and Franklin Arias for starter Dylan Cease and closer Robert Suarez. 

Crochet and Cease become one of the best 1-2 punches in the big leagues, although the Red Sox will have their hands full working on new deals with both starters — especially with Cease (and his agent, Scott Boras) seemingly set to cash in as a free agent this winter. 

In a smaller move, the Red Sox ultimately eat a majority of Masataka Yoshida’s contract and move him to a National League team in May. Yoshida still holds value at the plate, but his defensive shortcomings and the need to give Devers the lion’s share of reps at DH limits his value. 

Boston wins the AL East

The American League is wide open. While the Yankees were viewed by many as the favorites in the AL entering 2025, losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery (coupled with a lat strain for reigning Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil) has severely hindered Boston’s top rival. 

Add in question marks surrounding the Orioles’ pitching staff after a quiet winter and the Astros losing several stalwarts, and there seems to be no established contender in place in the AL.

Sure enough, FanGraphs doesn’t have a single AL team projected for more than 90 wins. 

That muddled playoff picture should benefit a team in the Red Sox that — despite their own question marks — have plenty of potential and depth in place entering the new season. 

Boston ultimately wins the AL East with a 93-69 record — two games over the Yankees, who do swing a deal for Miami’s Sandy Alcántara at the trade deadline. 

The Red Sox fall in the ALCS to …. the Royals

Another memorable October at Fenway Park ultimately ends in heartbreak, as the Red Sox lose Game 7 of the ALCS to an upstart Royals team led by AL MVP Bobby Witt Jr.

It’s a crushing end for Boston, who will have to grapple with new deals for Crochet, Cease, Buehler and a new wave of established players.

But after years of miserable summers, the 2025 Red Sox offer up hope that a sustained contention window has been pried open — especially with the trio of Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer all looking like future franchise stalwarts.