Despite not making a lot of big moves over the summer, the Tampa Bay Lightning continue to evolve as they stay on the path to finding the right combination for a deep playoff run. After last summer’s shake-up that saw Ryan McDonagh return, Steven Stamkos leave, and the Bolts land the top free agent prize in Jake Guentzel, Julien BriseBois kept things simple this off-season, adding a little depth on the bottom-six with Pontus Holmberg while also bringing in an intriguing younger player in Jakob Pelletier.
Re-signing Yanni Gourde should also help that bottom-six next season, but the success of the Lightning will be driven by the top two lines. For five out of the six positions the names will stay the same. Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Brandon Hagel are going to be together in some combination. Chances are it’s Kucherov, Point, and Guentzel rolling it back, because, why not? They were one of the best lines in the league last season, so why mess with it now?
Hagel and Cirelli established themselves as one of the best duos in franchise history, so there is no need to break them up at this point. The second-round (and third-round and Stanley Cup) question is the same as last season’s – who is going to fill that spot with Hagel and Cirelli?
It was a question that the Lightning never quite found an answer to last season. Six different players logged at least 60 minutes at 5v5 with the duo last year with Nikita Kucherov leading the way at 246 minutes. The chances Mr. BriseBois took last year in the off-season (signing Cam Atkinson, keeping Conor Sheary) didn’t pay off, so it looks like he wants to solve the issue with in-house talent.
The good news is that the Lightning do have several candidates that could fill the role. If they can find a permanent solution to that position, it’ll give the Bolts something they haven’t had in a while, consistency in their lines. So, just who should fill in that spot? Let’s take a couple of possibilities.
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Sometimes a stat pops out that one might not expect. Bjorkstrand played a whopping 2:48 with Hagel and Cirelli last season.Not per game, but total, all season. The trio were together on the ice for two shot attempts while facing just one against. No goals or expected goals either for and against for that whopping amount of ice time.
For the price the Lightning paid, and based on his production prior to the trade deadline, it seemed like he would be a nice fit on the line. He could provide some offense, but was still dedicated enough to keep up with the Selke-level defense from Cirelli and Hagel. Had things rolled out as the Lightning had planned, perhaps he would have worked his way up there by the end of the season.
Coach Jon Cooper elected to pair Bjorkstrand with Gourde for much of his time on the ice last season, which makes a little sense as the new winger adjusted to the Lightning’s system. Unfortunately, once he seemed to be getting comfortable, Bjorkstrand suffered the unlucky leg injury that kept him out of the line-up for the rest of the season.
Recovered, rested, and familiar with the system, he should have a shot in training camp to make his case. He’s a consistent 20+ goal scorer that posts positive Goals Against Replacement numbers both offensively and defensively on a year-in and year-out basis.
He also adds a right-shot to the line, something that the Lightning aren’t overflowing with on their forwards. One other thing to keep an eye on – Bjorkstrand is a pending unrestricted free agent. Having a player looking to impress his own franchise, along with the other 31, in a contract year is never a bad thing.
Gage Goncalves
Last season, Goncalves proved that he was a NHL player. This season he can show everyone that he is a top-six NHLer. He finished last season playing his best hockey, and an argument can be made that he was the Lightning’s best player in their playoff series against the Florida Panthers. Can he come into camp and build on that success?
Unlike Bjorkstrand, Goncalves had a decent amount of ice time with Hagel and Cirelli last season as he skated just over 60 minutes with them at 5v5. Their possession stats were positive, bordering on really, really good as they posted a 62.44% edge in expected goals. That translated to a 6-3 edge in actual goals against their opponents. Based on the numbers, they probably should have had even better numbers considering the Lightning goaltenders posted just a .880 SV% when they were on the ice.
While he is a left-hand shot, Goncalves can flip-flop on the ice and has the vision and passing ability to set up two players who like to crash the net. The duo doesn’t necessarily need another shooter so the 24-year-old Goncalves could be a perfect fit for them. Defensively, he’s not quite at the level of Bjorkstrand just yet, but he’s also not going to hurt them.
Nick Paul
Of the three choices, Nick Paul had the most experience with Hagel and Cirelli last season. They were together for 201 minutes and were on the ice for eight goals at 5v5. They also posted a respectable 56.59% XGF last year.
While he’s a natural center, Paul has been finding himself on the wing for a lot of his time in Tampa. With the re-signing of Yanni Gourde, it’s likely he’s going to stay out on the perimeter on either the second or third line this season, especially if the Lightning want to acclimate Conor Geekie to the middle of the ice.
Paul is an intriguing player. He is a big body (6’4″, 230 lb) that doesn’t play an overtly physical game. Rather, he uses his size to shield opponents away from the puck when he has it, and his his long reach to knock it off of sticks or dig it out of corners when he’s trying to regain possession. He isn’t a great skater, but he is faster than he looks and can often turn a defender and cut to the inside off of a rush through the offensive zone.
The same goes in the defensive zone. He doesn’t knock players off the puck, but his stick is often in the passing lanes to disrupt plays. Tampa Bay is better defensive team when he’s on the ice, posting an XGA/60 of 2.25 at 5v5, which is a 7% improvement compared to league average according to HockeyViz.
Paul had 15 goals at 5v5 last season, which was 5th on the team. That’s in-line with most second-line skaters in the league (Hagel had 23 while Cirelli also had 15) and would help the Lightning keep that top-six dominance at even-strength that helped carry them last season.
Other candidates
It’s possible that another forward stakes their claim to the spot. Geekie had plenty of time with the duo last season, and there is a good chance that he’s back up there as well depending on his progression as a player. Yanni Gourde is more suited to the middle of the ice, but a trio of Gourde, Hagel, and Cirelli would be an absolute nightmare of a line to play against.
If Pelletier can find the next level to his game, perhaps he can fulfill the two-way potential that made him a first-round pick in 2019. Freed from the shackles of a John Tortorella system, maybe the creativity that led to 130 points in 139 career AHL games shines through.
There should be a pretty healthy competition for filling the spot this fall, so expect to see a lot of different combinations at practice as well as in the preseason games. Competition usually drives better play, and that can be a bonus for the Lightning, not only on the second line, but also for the bottom-six as those players strive to show the coaching staff that they deserve the extra ice time.
