The Red Sox lost to the Blue Jays on Wednesday night, minutes after wins by the Royals and Tigers. That officially eliminated Boston from playoff contention and turns their attention completely to the offseason. Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the Boston beat before the game. While he didn’t go into too many specifics, he offered a few hints about where the Sox could turn in the winter.
Breslow pointed to the rotation, bullpen and a desire to balance a lefty-heavy lineup among the areas of focus, via Sean McAdam of MassLive. That not coincidentally overlaps with the Sox’s impending free agents. Nick Pivetta, Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Danny Jansen and Lucas Sims are all headed to the open market. That’s a pair of right-handed bats, one of their top starters and multiple high-leverage relievers.
Asked about O’Neill specifically, Breslow said the Sox are “definitely interested in having some of those conversations” about a new deal, via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston hit on a buy-low acquisition of the slugger from the Cardinals last offseason. O’Neill leads the team with 31 home runs and sports a .240/.335/.512 slash across 469 plate appearances. He had a trio of brief injured list stints but has been one of the Sox’s best hitters when healthy. O’Neill has been a particularly key piece of maintaining some amount of lineup balance. He has obliterated lefty pitching at a .313/.429/.750 clip in 156 trips to the plate. He’s tied with Aaron Judge for second in MLB (one behind Ketel Marte) with 16 home runs off southpaws.
O’Neill is eligible for a qualifying offer. There’s a good chance the 29-year-old left fielder would accept a one-year offer worth more than $21M. That’d be a massive jump over this year’s $5.85M arbitration salary. The Sox may prefer a three- or four-year deal that comes at a more manageable annual rate. O’Neill’s camp will probably look to top the respective $42M guarantees secured by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jorge Soler last winter.
Even if they retain O’Neill, that’d leave the Sox with the same lefty-leaning lineup they trotted out this year. They’ll need more contributors via some combination of free agency, trade and internal improvement. Vaughn Grissom is one of the higher-upside righty bats already on the roster. Grissom’s first season in Boston was underwhelming, as he battled injuries and struggled for most of the year. (Chris Sale, for whom the young infielder was traded, pitching his way to the NL Cy Young in Atlanta only adds to the disappointment.)
The Sox have split time at second base between Grissom and lefty-hitting Enmanuel Valdez with the season winding down. Breslow was noncommittal on whether the 23-year-old will enter next season as the favorite at second base.
“I think he’s absolutely got the potential to do that,” the chief baseball officer said of Grissom being an everyday player, via Speier. “But ultimately it’s going to be the play on the field that dictates who our everyday second base is.”
Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll also draw attention as a shortstop, and Gleyber Torres headline the free-agent class at second base. Jonathan India will probably be the subject of trade speculation yet again. It seems unlikely that the Sox would devote a ton of resources to the position. That’d impede Grissom and speedster David Hamilton next season. With top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer potentially on the radar for a 2025 debut, the keystone could be the long-term home for Trevor Story.
The pitching staff is a clearer area for free-agent investment. Jansen and Martin have been two of Alex Cora’s top three leverage arms for the past couple of seasons. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten will be back in the late innings. Liam Hendriks should be healthy and could compete with Slaten for the closing job. The Sox will probably look for multiple additions to solidify the setup corps in front of that duo. A reunion with Martin wouldn’t be surprising.
A rotation built around Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and hopefully a healthy Lucas Giolito has promise. Richard Fitts has had decent results in his first four MLB starts. Pivetta has absorbed a lot of innings while flashing strikeout stuff over the past few years, though. The Sox will need to replace that volume if he walks.
Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty headline the free-agent rotation class. Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Luis Severino and old friend Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines a $20M player option with Texas) are among the middle-tier starters who’d more closely mirror last winter’s Giolito pickup.
