This kind of analysis is why Joe has high regard for the inventor of DVOA and the founder of Football Outsiders (RIP) Aaron Schatz.
Since Football Outsiders went kaput after a sale two years ago, Schatz took his talents to something called FTNFantasy.com. More importantly, Schatz also took over the old Football Outsiders Almanac, which Schatz himself created and rebranded “Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac.”
In this year’s annual, Football Outsiders refugee Byron Knowles typed up the chapter on the Bucs.
Baker Mayfield had a career year last year with the Bucs and offensive coordinator Dave Canales. It seems, per Knowles, Canales worked on Mayfield’s mechanics leaving Mayfield with the quickest release of the football of his career?
Coincidence? Joe doesn’t believe in football coincidences.
He played like he was comfortable and confident for the first time in years, willing to chuck the ball downfield and into tight windows in key situations rather than settling for checkdowns and getting off the field. He also got the ball out of his hands quickly, not something he had historically been known for. He averaged 2.71 seconds to throw, nearly a tenth of a second faster than any other year in his career. He hadn’t been under 2.8 since his rookie season and drifted over three seconds at the worst of it, but he was far more decisive in Tampa Bay than we had ever seen him before. Most importantly, he played less frantically than he did at times in Cleveland and Carolina, looking more in control before the snap and more comfortable going through his progressions.
So what will Mayfield’s release time (snap-to-throw) be this fall? Will his mechanics stay the same? Did Canales have some sort of secret sauce that he took with him to Carolina?
If Mayfield’s release time begins rising, the Bucs certainly have all the film evidence they need to review and understand what’s happening and how to correct it, if they want to.
In 2021, when Matt Stafford first entered the Rams’ offense (the same offense the Bucs are expected to run this year with new playcaller Liam Coen), his release time increased to 2.8 seconds and the Rams won the Super Bowl. Stafford’s release time has dropped every season since.
