Packers defense is robbing Peter to pay Paul at the start of Jeff Hafley’s tenure

Full disclaimer: Yes, there has been an improvement on the Green Bay Packers defense. It was 27th in DVOA under Joe Barry in 2023, and it has been 19th through four weeks this season. But it's still not what the team ideally would want with Jeff Hafley as the defensive coordinator, and considering how much it has invested in the unit in terms of draft capital and cap space.

But it seems like the current version of the roster isn't capable of stopping the run and the pass at the same time, so Hafley is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

You can already see a huge improvement in run defense, and the numbers are clear. Believe it or not, the Packers defense is second in EPA per rush and 10th in rush success rate in the entire NFL. Through Mike Pettine and Joe Barry's tenures combined, Green Bay was 32nd in EPA/rush and 31st in success rate. So, yes, the Packers went from awful to really good really fast under Hafley in run defense.

But...

The cost

The Packers defense has not improved exactly because they are playing at a higher level. Jeff Hafley is simply throwing more resources at the problem. The Packers are using heavier boxes and more base defense than they used to, which is part of Hafley's schematic philosophy.

But that also means using fewer resources against the pass. This approach has not affected the defensive backs as much, particularly because the Packers have been great at creating turnovers (we can debate how sustainable this is, but it's a topic for another day).

The price the Packers have paid is with the pass rush.

"It wasn't up to our standard," head coach Matt LaFleur said about the pass rush against the Minnesota Vikings. "I don't think it was good enough, especially when we had the four-man rushes. We were able to generate some pressure when we started to give them some of those looks where we mugged up our backers in the A gaps."

Last year, the Packers were 15th in tackling grade, 18th in coverage grade, and 13th in pass rush grade according to PFF. The defense has improved to 17th in coverage grade, and significantly improved to 7th in tackling grade, but the pass rush grade has gone down to 25th.

According to ESPN, Green Bay is 32nd in pass rush win rate. It's not a huge downgrade from last year, when it was 30th, but the Packers were able to be more effective affecting the quarterback with 5-man rushes — not an usual blitz, but three interior defensive linemen and two edge defenders rushing the passer.

Now, it has not happened. Philosophically, Jeff Hafley will only use four down linemen — two defensive tackles and two defensive ends. To make things more different than they were before, ends are being tasked to prioritize setting the edge in a conscious effort to avoid rushing holes for the opposing offense.

"There have been some sacrifices that we've made in terms of guys trying to win one-on-one rushes to try to keep our pass rush lanes a little tighter to not allow quarterbacks to get through, especially when we're playing more athletic quarterbacks," LaFleur added. "When you do that, there's some pass rush that suffers. It's a balance of what we got to do, when there's times to unleash those guys and work edges, we got to go do that. And then there's times where we've got to be extremely coordinated with the four rushing as one and try to create, whether it's a pick game or whatever it may be, tp create a little bit more rush from those four guys."