In an article last week assessing the early returns on highly paid running backs from this past offseason, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell created a bit of a stir amongst Green Bay Packers fans by claiming Josh Jacobs has been “below average” to start the 2024 season. On the surface, it was a tough claim to understand — Jacobs entered Week 8 among the league leaders in carries, rushing yards, total touches and total yards.
But Barnwell, to his credit, laid out a strong statistical-based argument that dug past traditional volume numbers.
In a funny piece of timing, Jacobs answered almost all of Barnwell’s concerns during a star performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Jacobs averaged 5.1 yards per carry, didn’t fumble, had a success rate of 64.7 percent on first down, produced 35 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and created three runs of 10 or more yards and a 38-yard touchdown — checking pretty much all the boxes Barnwell raised when assessing his first seven games.
Adding to the quality and value of the performance, Jacobs did most of his damage after Jordan Love went out with an injury. After the Packers fell behind 17-13, Jacobs carried four straight times to start the next drive — gaining 16 yards — and then finished the march with the 38-yard score, which, considering the difficulty, likely ranks high among his best runs of the season. Jacobs cut back to the left, broke two tackles and raced to the end zone. Barnwell wanted explosive plays. He wanted long runs with more difficulty involved. Check, and check.
Overall, Jacobs forced eight missed tackles and gained almost 100 total yards after first contact, per Pro Football Focus. His 35 RYOE ranked sixth among all players in Week 8. He gained more rushing yards than expected on 50 percent of his runs.
On first down, Jacobs was excellent, rushing 18 times for 106 yards and both of his touchdowns. I’d say that’s keeping the offense on schedule. Ten of his first-down carries gained four or more yards.
Overall, Jacobs finished with 127 yards and two scores on 25 carries. Jacobs now has 90 or more total yards in four straight games and six of the Packers’ first eight games. He ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and fifth in total yards.
Is his impact over the first eight weeks that of Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley, two other signings from this offseason? No, but Henry and Barkley are enjoying uniquely great seasons so far. Jacobs is still on pace for almost 1,700 total yards.
Obviously, one week is just one week, and the Packers need Jacobs to continue the efficiency and big-play ability he showcased during Sunday’s win over the Jaguars. But Jacobs showed he still has elite, game-changing ability as a runner — which is why the Packers made him a top paid player at running back this offseason.
Again, this isn’t a criticism of Barnwell. His statistical comparison of the newly paid running backs from this offseason was tough but fair. Jacobs just timed his rebuttal perfectly.
