It's hard to argue that Brian Gutekunst is one of the best general managers and roster-builders in the NFL. Since he took over in 2018, he transformed the Green Bay Packers — which included more aggressiveness in free agency, some trades, willingness to improve the roster in the margins, and obviously a tough but successful transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.
In general, Gutekunst is a really solid talent evaluator. He has an impressive track record with day 2 and 3 picks, and his strategy to accumulate draft capital has been one of the main reasons for the Packers' recent success.
All that being said, there is one area where the process is questionable, and the results have been underwhelming. The first round of the draft.
It started really well for Gutekunst. In his very first draft, he moved down and up to acquire a future first from the New Orleans Saints and took cornerback Jaire Alexander. Even though Alexander was a slight reach compared to the consensus board, the additional capital compensated for that, and Alexander ended up being an All-Pro player.
In terms of process, things started to get a little questionable in 2019. The Packers selected edge defender Rashan Gary right after paying Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith in free agency. That's fine if it's an exception, since they believed Gary had the potential to be an elite player at a premium position.
Surplus value discussion
Gary has become a really good player with some elite moments, but the fact that he wasn't a preferred starter until year 4 makes things difficult. Since the creation of the rookie-scale contract with the 2011 CBA, generating surplus value with young players is a huge component of building an NFL roster.
For example, you can certainly argue that Rashan Gary has a higher ceiling than Brian Burns. But Burns was much more productive throughout the rookie contract, and that matters — especially because their talent-level difference is not that high even at this point.
The Packers repeated the model in 2023, getting Lukas Van Ness with the 13th overall pick. The best realistic scenario would be him starting in year 3 after playing behind Rashan Gary and Preston Smith for at least two years. Meanwhile, cornerback Christian Gonzalez had a chance to be an immediate contributor. And at a premium position as well.
Van Ness might eventually become a good player, but at least half of his rookie contract will be gone by then. It will still be worth it if he is good, but there are more efficient ways to get good players in the first round.
Consensus discussion
Brian Gutekunst has drafted eight players in the first round since he became a GM. Six of them were considered reaches based on the consensus draft board — the exceptions are quarterback Jordan Love and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt.
Picks (consensus board ranks):
2018
- 14. Jaire Alexander (23rd)
2019
- 12. Rashan Gary (14th)
- 21. Darnell Savage (44th)
2020
- 26. Jordan Love (23rd)
2021
- 29. Eric Stokes (44th)
2022
- 22. Quay Walker (39th)
- 28. Devonte Wyatt (25th)
2023
- 13. Lukas Van Ness (16th)
Sometimes it Works, like it did with Jaire Alexander, but most of the time you are not smarter than everyone else — especially when we're talking about such a volatile topic like the draft process.
In 2019, it was the worst combination: He moved up nine spots in the draft, giving up two fourth-round picks, to reach for safety Darnell Savage. The safety was taken 23 positions ahead of his consensus ranks, and the consensus was right about him.
In 2021, the Packers had another big reach when they selected Eric Stokes with the 29th pick when he was the 44th ranked player. That wasn't a great draft class to be fair, but players taken later who were ahead of Stokes on the consensus board included linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, offensive lineman Teven Jenkins, edge defenders Azeez Ojulari and Gregory Rousseau, defensive tackle Christian Barmore, cornerback Asante Samuel, and center Landon Dickerson. Stokes had a positive rookie season, but injuries prevented him from repeating the same level since. And this is the point here. Stokes could've been good if not for the injuries, so I'm not discussing the outcome as much as the process.
Gutekunst seems to be more willing to reach when he has extra draft capital. He did it in 2019 for Savage and did it again in 2022 for Quay Walker, probably Gutey's worst first-round pick in terms of process.
Walker is an athletic player and had a high ceiling as a prospect, for sure. He could have turned into a good player. But even if he had, the reward with off-ball linebackers isn't that high. So if you're gonna bet on the ceiling, it's smarter to do it with edges like he did with Gary and Van Ness or cornerbacks like he did with Jaire and Stokes.
With the extra pick from the Davante Adams' trade to the Las Vegas Raiders, Gutekunst used the 22nd pick to select the 39th prospect on the consensus board. Options still available included edge rusher George Karlaftis and offensive lineman Tyler Smith.
So yes, Brian Gutekunst is a really good general manager. And yes, too, he can make better use of his first-round picks. It's the easiest way to find blue-chip talent, and if you can get them on the cheap, it's the best method to construct a strong roster.
