The Green Bay Packers followed their 2019 plan in 2023, taking a developmental and raw edge rusher in the first half of the first round in the draft.
In 2019, Rashan Gary was the choice to stay behind recently-signed Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith. Gary wouldn't become a starter until year 3, when Za'Darius suffered a back injury, and a preferred starter until year 4 — the last of his rookie contract.
In 2023, the selection was Lukas Van Ness. As a rookie, he was behind Gary, Preston Smith, and even former fifth-round pick Kingsley Enagbare. He was supposed to take a step forward in his second season, but it hasn't happened. The question is that now, after the Packers decision to trade Preston Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Van Ness' development will be even more important for the Packers.
This season, Van Ness is fourth in defensive snaps (41.02%) among the edge rushers, behind Rashan Gary (64.26%), Preston Smith (54.23%), and Kingsley Enagbare (42.78%). Taking Smith out of the equation, you could presume that Enagbare is the new starter — and that might be the case over the next few games. But if Green Bay wants a high-ceiling edge rusher, Van Ness has to start playing better.
"We need more from those guys as we move forward into the second half of the season," general manager Brian Gutekunst said on Tuesday, right after the trade deadline. "As the last few games, the snaps have gone towards what they're gonna be probably. I like that group, I like the way they work. They have to continue to keep pushing and some guys getting more snaps will help them."
Enagbare has, in fact, been more productive than Van Ness. The former fifth-rounder has 10 pressures and 1.5 sacks this year, against six pressures and one sack from the first-rounder.
In terms of PFF grades, Van Ness has been worse both in pass rush grade (53.0 to 60.4) and run defense grade (50.4 to 68.1).
That difference in production has also to do with their styles. Enagbare is lighter at 258 lbs, and that seems to have been a better fit to Jeff Hafley's scheme — this, by the way, is a potential reason for the lack of production among the Packers' edge rushers this season, since they have bet on size for several years. Van Ness is 272 lbs. For Hafley, it's a challenge to adapt his scheme to what the roster does well.
The effort plays are there, as you can see above, but Van Ness has had issues to win battles quickly enough to generate havoc.
There's also a matter of experience. Van Ness is still 23, so there's plenty of time to develop — even though the Packers expect production from young guys.
"We don't like to use that as an excuse. You evolve as a team every single year, and you have to work towards that to play your best football at the end of the season," Gutekunst added. "We've had teams here in the past that have come out and played really good football early and faded at the end. We had a team last year that really came out strong towards the end of the season, and I really like how Matt (LaFleur) handled the team, the way we got better week in and week out. We were really playing our best football at the end of the season, and it's what I expect this season. The guys are working, they're working the right way, making the right stuff. I'm excited for the second half."
Green Bay needs more production out of its first-round picks, and it needs that as soon as possible to generate surplus value on the rookie contract — something that barely happened with Rashan Gary.
For Van Ness, it's a huge task, but also a huge opportunity. And it can define his NFL career.
