The New England Patriots feel like a more optimistic team heading into the upcoming 2025 season than at any time since the franchise drafted Mac Jones back in the first round of the 2021 draft.
Mike Vrabel is one of the top coaches in football, who has a rare blend of elite game knowledge and top-notch player management capabilities; the roster faced significant upgrades; and in Drake Maye the Patriots have a true ascending talent at quarterback.
So it is perhaps a surprise – especially in a somewhat weakened AFC East division – that New England is not favored to make the playoffs – priced currently at +130. And this is mirrored by Pro Football Focus, who named the Pats one of their value bets to make the postseason.
Patriots A Good Value Bet For The Playoffs – PFF
In fact, the Patriots are PFF’s favorite AFC playoff-underdog bet, per contributor, Mason Cameron.
“An aggressive roster overhaul on both sides of the ball,” Cameron writes, “featuring Stefon Diggs, Morgan Moses, Milton Williams, Carlton Davis III and rookies Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson, will have this team looking very different from the squad that won four games a year ago.
Much of the improvement that Cameron foresees could come from the changes made on the offensive line, where the team will likely field at least three new starters.
“With a revamped offensive line,” Cameron continued, “the Patriots’ offense under Josh McDaniels can take steps toward better protecting its young quarterback, Drake Maye, in year two and improving a passing game that ranked 25th in EPA per dropback. Although Maye struggled in his rookie campaign, even from a clean pocket, his 95.3 PFF passing grade when left clean during his two seasons as a starter at North Carolina points to his potential improvement.
Oddsmakers have tapped New England as one of the most improved franchises heading into 2025, giving the team +130 odds to make the playoffs and a win total line ranging from 7.5 to 8.5. With the third-easiest projected strength of schedule, the new-look Patriots should make some noise and press for a playoff berth this season.”
Should The Patriots Have Lower Odds To Enter The Postseason
The Buffalo Bills remain the heavy favorite to win the AFC East at around -260, translating to around 73% implied probability. But the Patriots still remain a strong candidate to secure a playoff berth through the Wild Card format, that adds three teams in the AFC.
However, New England will have serious competition from the likes of teams such as the Chargers, the Broncos, the Bengals and the Steelers, who could all be serious contenders for the 5th, 6th and 7th seeds.
