The Patriots are a week away from opening the first training camp of the head coach Jerod Mayo era, where we'll see if the organization is on the right path.
Although the regular season will be the true test, live padded practices and preseason games will set the foundation for 2024. The top storyline will be rookie Drake Maye's development and the overall quarterback competition. However, selecting Maye with the third overall pick was not a gamble in the slightest. In fact, Maye was, by far, the consensus pick.
Some believe the Patriots could play the long game with their first-year quarterback, opting to bridge the gap to the Maye era with serviceable veteran Jacoby Brissett. Regardless, my biggest question heading into camp has nothing to do with Maye or the risk-reward of playing him early in his rookie season as he continues to improve the details in his game.
This summer is about the real dice rolls for EVP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf. Again, the masses agreed that the North Carolina product was worthy of a top-three selection. Instead, the difficult decisions for Wolf were coin flips in the draft and free agency to rebuild the supporting cast around the QB, mainly at wide receiver and tackle, which will factor into Maye's timeline depending on the readiness of the personnel on offense.
To quickly revisit the offseason, Wolf's first move to shore up the offensive line was to sign veteran free-agent tackle Chuks Okorafor. After falling out of favor in Pittsburgh, the Steelers released Okorafor, a career right tackle. New England will now flip the 27-year-old to the left side as their projected starting left tackle, which is a significant question mark.
While taking a chance on Okorafor transitioning to left tackle, the Patriots passed on bigger free-agent commitments such as Jonah Williams (Cardinals) and future Hall of Famer Tyron Smith (Jets). Another alternative would've been signing a high-upside reclamation project such as former first-round pick Mekhi Becton, but Wolf identified Okorafor as his target early on.
Then, in the draft, New England selected a wide receiver (Ja'Lynn Polk) with their second-round pick rather than addressing offensive tackle. After waiting until the third round, Penn State's Ceadan Wallace was the pick at No. 68, another right tackle that the team could flip to the left side in search of a long-term answer as Maye's blindside protector.
The offensive line was a clear area that needed to be upgraded after finishing dead last in pass-blocking win rate last season. Specifically, New England's offensive tackles ranked 20th in total pressures allowed (143) and 26th in average time to pressure (2.8s), per NextGen Stats. According to expert Brandon Thorn's preseason rankings, the Pats O-Line is the second-worst unit on paper heading into the summer.
When we revisit Wolf's moves to set the offense up for success, Okorafor and Wallace's performance compared to the other available players will factor heavily into grading his first offseason at the helm. Similarly, the Patriots had some coin-flips at wide receiver as well.
Following a failed pursuit to land free-agent receiver Calvin Ridley, reports indicate New England tried to get back into the first round to select a wide receiver. With six receivers coming off the board in a 10-pick span, Polk's career will be compared to Xavier Worthy (No. 28), Ricky Persall (No. 31), Xavier Legette (No. 32), Keon Coleman (No. 33), and Ladd McConkey (No. 34). McConkey was selected by the Chargers with New England's original draft choice after the Patriots opted to trade down, so those comparisons will run wild.
After selecting Polk with the 37th overall pick, the Patriots double-dipped at receiver by taking Javon Baker in the fourth round. However, there were rumors that the Patriots were preparing to select wideout Troy Franklin before the Broncos swooped in to take the Oregon product. With the speedy receiver off the board, the Pats picked Texas A&M guard Layden Robinson at No. 103, then completed the receiver double-dip with Baker seven picks later. Like with the cluster of receivers taken around Polk, Baker and Franklin are now forever linked.
In fairness to Wolf, these are the breaks for decision-makers. There's luck involved in the draft, from how the board falls to which players pan—it's an educated guess. As the Patriots try to establish a draft-and-develop culture, evidence suggests investing in veteran free agency at the top of the market typically doesn't yield good results. High-end receivers and tackles don't usually hit unrestricted free agency, so you're paying a premium for mid-tier talent.
We might look back a year from now at a successful first offseason for Wolf as the Patriots personnel chief. Either the vet (Okorafor) or rookie (Wallace) could prove to be a functional piece on the line, while Baker and Polk might blossom into a formidable duo. Still, these moves will ultimately determine whether this is a remodel or a multi-year rebuild in New England.
Without further ado, let's empty the Patriots Unfiltered mailbag with one week until training camp:
Q: What would a new contract look like for Matthew Judon, and what would his trade value be on the market? - @Yapybara
Although the big-picture view offensively is undoubtedly the top storyline for the Patriots, a close second is the future for top defensive playmaker Matthew Judon. Judon has a below-market base value of $6.5 million this upcoming season in the last year of a four-year deal. Understandably, the four-time Pro Bowler is looking for a new contract. According to reports, New England offered an extension to Judon, but the offer was rejected.
As we head into camp, something must be done with Judon's contract. There are three options here. First, the Pats could increase Judon's salary this season either with a raise in base salary or an incentive package to increase his earning potential in 2024. Judon doesn't currently have any incentives this season. After missing 13 games last year due to a torn biceps, it would be easy to give him realistic thresholds to meet while not affecting the Patriots salary cap. Ultimately, they have plenty of cap space to raise Judon's base salary to a more respectable number, but incentives are a more team-friendly option.
Second, New England could bridge the gap in extension talks to sign Judon, a 2025 free agent, beyond this season. That would create new money and a signing bonus, which surely would make Judon happy. Looking at some comps, three-time Pro Bowler Za'Darius Smith re-signed with the Browns on a two-year, $23.5 million deal this offseason. Judon and Smith are just a few weeks apart as they both enter their age 32 seasons, and Over the Cap's valuation tool puts Judon in a similar range with a projected deal worth $11.25 million annually.
The last option, which from this perspective is one the Patriots would like to avoid, is trading Judon. There's logic to trading a 31-year-old on a rebuilding roster looking for a new contract who could immediately upgrade a contender's defense. Is it likely that Judon is on the next great Patriots team? Nope, so why not get something in a trade for him? The issue is that Judon's value on the trade market might not offset the loss of his on-field impact on the Patriots' defense. Plus, the Pats new regime is trying to build a culture of rewarding standout performers who are good in the locker room, which is a category Judon falls under.
Realistically, the Patriots could probably get a mid-round pick in return for Judon. Two years ago, Khalil Mack went for a second and a sixth-round pick from the Bears to the Chargers. However, Mack was younger and likely viewed as the superior player. It's hard to imagine the Pats getting a similar package for Judon, so maybe he's worth a fourth-round pick on the high end.
My view is that the Patriots would rather have Judon on their roster this season than trade him for an early day-three pick, so I'm expecting some contract agreement in the near future.
Q: If you could extend one player left in the conversation, who would it be: Peppers, Judon, or Godchaux? - T Murph
Good question, Murph. My initial instinct is to say Peppers because he's the youngest of the three you mentioned (age 28). If the player Peppers was last year is now the norm due to scheme fit/role in the defense, then he has to be your answer. However, I'm not in love with the Dugger-Peppers safety tandem. They still feel like an odd fit with two box safeties forcing one to cosplay as a free safety. With the team now committed to Dugger long-term, would the Pats be better off pairing him with a true centerfielder? I'd like to see it this year before paying market value for another safety.
Therefore, even though he's younger, my final answer is Judon. The Pats four-man pass rush took a significant hit without him on the field a year ago, forcing the defense to generate pressure via scheme rather than winning one-on-one matchups. Judon still has tremendous on-field value and should have two more good years in him to justify a two-year extension.
Q: Evan, the greatest defensive football coach on the planet has left, along with his week-to-week defensive game plans. What are your realistic thoughts for the defense and are we all crazy to think it will still be a top 5-10 unit? - Derek M
It would be unfair to Belichick to think the defense isn't losing significant brain power going from Belichick and Steve B to Mayo and Covington. Although things fell apart in other areas, the defense remained a well-coached unit under Belichick until the end, ranking ninth in DVOA last season despite significant injuries to Judon and first-round pick Christian Gonzalez.
The Pats defensive brain-trust will need to prove they have the chops from a game-plan and play-calling perspective to hang with the top offensive minds in the league. However, the defensive structure is expected to stay mostly the same, so the schematic roots will still resemble a Belichick defense, and the Pats have great continuity personnel-wise.
Carrying over the same core tenets with similar personnel should ease the blow of losing the GOAT defensive coach. This is a very talented defense. They have potential blue-chippers in Judon, Gonzalez, and Christian Barmore with secondary playmakers (Dugger, Peppers). There are also solid contributors in their roles, such as Jonathan Jones, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Deatrich Wise, Davon Godchaux, Joshua Uche, and Anfernee Jennings, and breakout candidates like Keion White. It's a deep group that also isn't absent of top-end talent.
Like many others, I'm bullish on the Patriots defense. The only potential downfall is if the coaching takes a major step back, which I don't think will happen with Mayo, Covington, Mike Pellegrino, and Brian Belichick still around.
Q: I see the receivers working out with outside parties, and it being recorded. Some mentioned that this would have never been allowed under Belichick. Do you think it will be beneficial? - JA
First, I will push back on the notion that Belichick didn't allow players to seek guidance from outside parties and record their offseason workouts. Patriots players have worked with trainers/gurus at their respective positions for years while recording those workouts has been going on in the new age of social media for a while now. Players have worked with quarterback whispers, receiver trainers, cornerback gurus, O-Line coaches, pass-rush specialists, etc. I mean, Brady started working with Tom House in the early 2000s, so this is not new or anti-Belichick.
For those in the dark here, a large Patriots contingent was recently filmed working with James Everett (aka Route God) in Florida. The group included quarterbacks Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett, along with Pop Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and KJ Osborn, among others. Although significant work is still needed, these off-season workouts can benefit overall team morale.
Q: What is the plan for Marte Mapu heading into his second season? - @TMan2999
Good question after the Patriots re-signed Kyle Dugger to a lucrative deal and continue rostering Jabrill Peppers. Retaining Dugger, in particular, would seemingly block Mapu's path to being a major contributor. With all three having overlap in skill sets, it's questionable whether or not they can coexist on the field together. My guess is that Belichick viewed Mapu as a long-term Dugger replacement, with the idea of either letting Dugger walk this offseason or potentially having Dugger play one more year on the franchise tag before passing the torch.
Instead, the new regime opted to re-sign Dugger, risking Mapu becoming redundant without a clear role despite being a higher draft pick. Along with being a core contributor on special teams, Mapu could carve out a role on defense as a Swiss Army knife. He could play as a "big" slot in nickel, a three-safety dime package player guarding tight ends, or as a coverage linebacker at the second level in obvious passing situations.
There are snaps to be had in a slot-safety capacity, with the Patriots moving on from Myles Bryant this offseason (74.8% snap rate in 2023). Although they have much different skill sets, Mapu could wear some of the same hats that Bryant did in specific packages.
Q: What formation on offense will be the Pats bread and butter this season? - CJL
Love this question. The Browns were overwhelmingly a three-receiver (11 personnel) offense last season. Cleveland ranked 11th with 68.2% of their snaps in '11' a year ago, with the second-most used grouping being '12' at 10.6% (29th in NFL). Formationally, they were above league-average in under-center usage (29.2%) and primarily spread the field with an average width of 26.1 yards (ninth-highest), so they didn't buy into the condensed formations we see from other West Coast offenses like the Rams, Niners, Dolphins, and Packers.
My guess is the Patriots "base" early-down offense will have a 60-40 split in favor of three-receiver sets over heavy groupings with a significant chunk of snaps under center. But feature plenty of multiple tight end sets, and, obviously, tons of play-action. Cleveland ranked seventh with a 14.9% play-action rate in 2023. One should expect AVP to increase that number, especially once Maye, a rookie, is under center.
Q: Every college team in the nation has a left tackle. Yet, every year, when it comes to the draft, we're told only a small handful of these OTs will make it as pros. Why? What makes this particular position so difficult for college programs to develop? - Jim L
It's a great question that could produce a much longer answer. In short, only so many 300-plus-pound humans have the athleticism to play tackle at the NFL level. From an athletic profile standpoint, the threshold to play in college is much lower than in the pros.
Second, pass-blocking is different in college than the pros. For example, you might only see half a dozen pro-style pass-blocking reps on one college tape for a pro prospect because they might be in an Air Raid or RPO-heavy scheme. In the college-style air raid, linemen splits are significantly wider with more space between blockers, and the ball is designed to come out quickly, so you aren't getting those drawn-out reps on an island. RPOs also limit the amount of true pass-blocking reps tackles get in college. Then, they get to the pros and are expected to pass block on an island 30-plus times – a huge adjustment.
From there, we must discuss the lack of live practice reps for developmental prospects. With fewer and fewer padded practices, there is less time to drill techniques to make the leap in footspeed, play strength, and fundamentals necessary to adjust to the pro game. Offensive line technique is a learned movement. It's not something that comes naturally to us, like throwing a ball, running, or catching. It's a learned skill, so it takes time to perfect. That's why I'm in favor of spring leagues involving NFL players who need the live reps.
From a player perspective, you can understand why they've cut down on fully padded practices in training camp. But the line play, especially regarding serviceable depth, has taken a hit. Finding ways to get reps for guys not playing significant snaps in games would go a long way.
