Pete Crow-Armstrong has a legitimate NL MVP case right now. That's how dominant he's been. While Chicago Cubs fans might not expect him to run away with that award, they do believe he's a budding star. The numbers in his early-season rampage surely indicate that, but one flaw in his game, his chase rate, could turn his dream start into a nightmare for the Cubs.
Again, Crow-Armstrong looks like one of the best players in the game right now. Cubs fans knew about his elite glove and his blazing speed, but his bat has been among the National League's best, making him a complete player. He enters Monday's action slashing .275/.308/.559 with nine home runs and 26 RBI. He's tacked on 12 stolen bases to go with his usual absurd defense.
While his base-stealing ability and elite defense aren't going anywhere anytime soon, his bat might not be as elite as it has been because of his chase rate, which is currently at 43.7 percent according to Baseball Savant.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.
Pete Crow-Armstrong's chase rate could throw cold water on his raging hot start
This weakness might not be impacting Crow-Armstrong at all right now, but baseball is all about adjustments. Eventually, pitchers will realize that Crow-Armstrong is chasing at an absurd clip right now.
There's being an aggressive hitter, and then there's being a free swinger. Crow-Armstrong qualifies as the latter, and he does that to the extreme. His chase rate has him in the first percentile according to Baseball Savant. He is chasing as much as anyone in the game, and more than some of the sport's most notorious free swingers like Javier Baez and Jose Altuve.
Being a free swinger isn't the end of the world. Guys like Baez and Altuve have had tremendous careers despite chasing at an absurd rate. However, this flaw could be what holds Crow-Armstrong back. Eventually, pitchers are going to stop giving him hittable strikes, knowing that he has a tendency to swing at pitches out of the zone. If they do, it'll be on Crow-Armstrong to make adjustments on his end.
If he starts laying off more pitches out of the zone, the league could be in trouble. By walking more, Crow-Armstrong could cause even more chaos on the base paths than he's already doing. If he does not lay off pitches out of the zone, the strikeouts could climb, and his production could nosedive.
This isn't to say Crow-Armstrong can't make the necessary adjustment. So far, he hasn't had to, based on the year he's had. However, once pitchers adjust, he will have to follow suit. Whether he does or not could dictate how successful he is as a hitter for the Cubs.
