Now that PLD is here it's time to prove it
The Pierre-Luc Dubois trade has the potential to be one of the biggest steals in recent NHL history. I don't think I am overreacting to anything there and I'm not sure why anyone would disagree with that statement.
In one trade, in a deal that saw just two players involved, the Washington Capitals acquired a potential top six center who is 26-years-old, who is under contract until the year 2031. Usually, to acquire a piece like that you will have players flying all over the place. Maybe even multiple teams will be involved.
The Capitals got a potential top six center, in his prime, signed long term, and all they had to give up was a 34-year-old, struggling, somewhat expensive goaltender in Darcy Kuemper. Wow!
Obviously, you are not going to get this deal done without some questions. Teams don't give up top six centers or potential top six centers for nothing. Sometimes the questions or issues are harder to find out than others. For Dubois though, it's pretty easy to see. What kind of person are you getting here?
I want to make something obviously clear before we go any further. This is where people can get themselves into trouble questioning, or full on bullying for the lack of a better word, someone they don't and won't ever fully know. I don't know Dubois, I'm sure he is a fine fella, a lovely person, however you want to say it. But he has serious questions to answer as a professional in a public role.
The way I see this Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, and why I am so high on this deal is pretty simple. He basically doesn't have too many choices other than have a great season, pretty quickly in Washington.
Dubois was drafted 3rd overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets back in 2016. He was taken behind Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine. He was taken ahead of guys like Matthew Tkachuk (6th overall), Clayton Keller (7th overall), Mikhail Sergachev (9th overall) and Charlie McAvoy (14th overall). Those are some good players. If you drafted in hindsight how many of those guys do you take of over Dubois right now? At the very least I'm guessing you take at least two with Tkachuk and McAvoy. I'd also very much consider Keller and his point per game play over the last three seasons.
This isn't me trying to imply that Dubois has been a bust or anything either. But Tkachuk has been a terrific player on a Cup final and now a Cup winning team. McAvoy is an excellent top pairing defenseman. Clayton Keller is a point per game player who at times to me looks like another Patrick Kane. He just doesn't get the recognition for several reasons. Like less help than Kane had and he played or plays on a team no one pays attention to.
Dubois' career best numbers are nothing to sneeze at, but at the same time are not anything great or elite. His best goals tally came in 21-22 where he scored 28 goals. A very good number. His career best in points came the next season where he had 63 points in 73 games. Again, very good. Like I said earlier, these are top six numbers, especially when you consider his all around game. There is also potential to get better. Maybe 30+ goals and 70+ points. That would be terrific for Dubois and the Capitals.
The reason Dubois has to have a good season for the Capitals and do it fairly quickly is because he might be running out of time. Dubois has forced his way out of two NHL teams already. Then, for one reason or another, he irked his third team so bad in just one season they traded him away for next to nothing.
Dubois has to show everyone that he can be a great NHL player again, and that he won't force his way off teams.
What if things go bad for the Caps? What if Ovechkin isn't the same old goal scoring machine? What if guys like McMichael and Lapierre don't take that next step in their development? What if the young guys aren't ready or are not able to make impacts at the NHL level? What if the other new guys on the Caps are not able to settle in in Washington? What if the goaltending takes a dive this season?
Are all of those things likely to happen at once? Probably not. But at least of couple of those could happen. If they do how does the team peform? Does Dubois struggle as a result. If he struggles does he make his fourth NHL team irritated. If he annoys his fourth team his NHL career still isn't likely over, but it could look very, very different. Especially when talking about his yearly salary and no one likes getting that messed with.
If the team struggles does the Dubois we've seen in earlier years come back out? Does he try to force his way out of D.C.? Can he even do it if he wanted to? I'm sure there is some desperate team out there that would take him, but that would be his third team he tries to get out of. I'm sure a lot of management teams that would have taken him years ago would then not be so interested.
If Dubois struggles how does that affect the Capitals? Well, unfortunately we've seen this a lot recently thanks to Evgeny Kuznetsov. You would have a high priced, badly performing player which badly affects the team. But can you trade Dubois if that happened? A guy who has forced his way out of two cities and has failed to deliver since signing a big contact. If you can trade that contract you aren't getting much back. On top of would a team take him, he also has a "No Movement Clause" in his contract that kicked in this off-season. That turns into a "Modified No Trade Clause" in 2028.
This is why I am so high on this trade and this acquisition by the Capitals and General Manager Brian MacLellan to kick off the Chris Patrick era. I think Dubois is a fantastic player. I think he is a fantastic player with maybe multiple things to prove to multiple people, maybe even himself.
He has to play well. He doesn't really have any other option. If he doesn't play well it's going to be hard to get out of Washington whether he wants to or not. I don't know if Dubois is starting to get a reputation around the NHL or if he already has one. The only sane option he has is to stick around in Washington for the next seven or so years, and play well in the majority of those years, especially in the first couple of years.
With that being the case, at least in my opinion, the Capitals should get the very best of Pierre-Luc Dubois. This could be a massive deal and player for the Capitals for a long time.
